Europe's airlines in China: Lufthansa and AF-KLM largest as British Airways/oneworld play catch up
China is the world's most populous nation and its second largest passenger aviation market with enormous growth potential in spite of some regulatory brakes. So why is it that some European countries are under-served to China by their home carriers, in particular Spain, but also Italy and the UK? It is not an easy market to serve and yields remain low, but it is a must-do market.
Air China and Lufthansa are the biggest players on Europe-China and this is reflected in the Star Alliance controlling almost half of the seats on these routes and SkyTeam's Air France and KLM both have strong positions in Amsterdam and Paris respectively. By contrast, British Airways finds itself in the most competitive Europe-China market, the UK and without a Chinese partner.
While BA is starting a Chengdu service and increasing its Shanghai frequency from six times weekly to daily, Iberia is absent entirely from China and IAG looks very under-represented in this large and fast-growing market. In spite of Finnair carving out a successful niche, oneworld is an also-ran on Europe-China, with only a 10% share.
- China is the world's second-largest aviation market with significant growth potential.
- Air China and Lufthansa dominate the Europe-China market, with Star Alliance having the largest market share.
- British Airways is the most competitive carrier in the UK-China market, but lacks a Chinese partner.
- Iberia, part of IAG, is absent from the China market, leaving the group under-represented.
- Finnair has successfully carved out a niche in the Europe-China market, but oneworld has a small market share overall.
- Visa-related issues and lack of slots at major Chinese airports are challenges for European carriers in the China market.
China is the world's number two aviation market with huge growth potential
China is the world's number two market for passenger airline services, as measured by total seat capacity. While 78% of this capacity is domestic, China still ranks as the seventh largest international aviation market and the largest outside Europe, the US and the United Arab Emirates.
But it is not just its current size that makes it attractive to foreign carriers, it is its potential.
Top 20 airline passenger markets by seats 13-May-2013 to 19-May-2013
|
Country |
Seats |
|
|
1 |
20,040,378 |
|
|
2 |
9,857,499 |
|
|
3 |
5,005,837 |
|
|
4 |
4,829,115 |
|
|
5 |
4,433,581 |
|
|
6 |
3,681,833 |
|
|
7 |
3,263,523 |
|
|
8 |
3,013,579 |
|
|
9 |
2,981,057 |
|
|
10 |
2,747,313 |
|
|
11 |
2,464,811 |
|
|
12 |
2,283,059 |
|
|
13 |
2,213,987 |
|
|
14 |
2,114,176 |
|
|
15 |
1,998,492 |
|
|
16 |
1,984,847 |
|
|
17 |
1,710,194 |
|
|
18 |
1,636,471 |
|
|
19 |
1,530,679 |
|
|
20 |
1,492,087 |
In economic terms, China remains a developing nation with GDP per capita well below the global average. Airline seats per capita are well correlated with GDP per capita and the aviation market should continue to grow as China's economy continues to grow. In addition to growth in GDP per capita driving growth in the aviation market, China's current level of seats per capita is around half of what might be expected given its level of GDP per capita and this suggests additional growth potential.
There are currently regulatory controls that perhaps restrict it from moving closer to the trend line, but, over the long term, China should become the world's largest aviation market by some distance, particularly if it moves to a more liberalised environment. In its 2012 Current Market Outlook, Boeing forecast average growth in international RPKs from China of 7.2% p.a. from 2012 to 2031, compared with 5.0% p.a. globally.
GDP per capita and passenger airline seat capacity per capita
Source: CAPA - Centre for Aviation
Relative liberalisation and traffic
Source: Boeing Current Market Outlook 2012
Air China and Lufthansa put Star on top of Europe to China routes
Star Alliance groups Air China and Lufthansa take the first two positions on routes between Europe and China and so it is no surprise that Star is the leading alliance between Europe and China with 47% of seat capacity. SkyTeam members Air France-KLM and Aeroflot are in third and fourth respectively and their two Chinese alliance partners are in fifth and sixth, making SkyTeam the number two alliance with 32%.
Within SkyTeam, these relationships are further strengthened by the joint venture agreements between Air France-KLM and China Southern. By contrast, IAG has a very small presence on routes to China (all through British Airways), and even ranks behind fellow oneworld member Finnair. Overall oneworld has a paltry 10% share, the same as all the non-aligned carriers.
These alliance figures, however, have different meanings. SkyTeam's presence between Europe and China is the most coordinated and cooperative, with AF-KLM having a JV with China Southern and a proposed one with China Eastern. In Star, Lufthansa and Air China see each other as competitors even if there is codesharing. Lufthansa targets connecting traffic beyond German hubs while Air China flies directly to numerous European cities. oneworld is the least coordinated between Europe and China, but then again it is the loosest global marketing alliance. BA and Finnair are competitors and Finnair's fundamental strategy of linking Europe with Asia via Helsinki caused it to be hesitant of welcoming Qatar Airways into the oneworld alliance as a member elect. While fellow oneworld carrier Cathay Pacific does not link Europe to mainland China directly, it does so through its Hong Kong hub, and views BA and Finnair as competitors for Europe-China traffic.
Top 14 airline groups Europe to China by capacity (seats) 13-May-2013 to 19-May-2013
|
Rank |
Airline Group |
Total Seats |
% of Total |
|
1 |
53,788 |
22% |
|
|
2 |
37,118 |
15% |
|
|
3 |
26,364 |
11% |
|
|
4 |
19,076 |
8% |
|
|
5 |
18,988 |
8% |
|
|
6 |
16,344 |
7% |
|
|
7 |
13,300 |
6% |
|
|
8 |
10,860 |
5% |
|
|
9 |
9,968 |
4% |
|
|
10 |
7,840 |
3% |
|
|
11 |
5,880 |
2% |
|
|
12 |
3,792 |
2% |
|
|
13 |
2,520 |
1% |
|
|
14 |
896 |
0% |
|
|
Others |
13,792 |
6% |
|
|
Total |
240,526 |
100% |
oneworld remains weak on Europe-China
oneworld is the biggest of the alliances on Europe to Hong Kong routes, but it remains in third place when aggregating this with Europe to China. The China-UK bilateral has been capacity constrained; BA and Virgin Atlantic fought strongly for the right to fly to Shanghai, which Virgin won (BA later got access, too). Consequently, Virgin's London-Shanghai service is one of its most successful. The lack of slots at Heathrow has not helped either carrier, and neither has the lack of slots at Beijing and Shanghai; Air France in comparison has double daily services to both Beijing and Shanghai whereas BA has at most one daily flight.
BA has become emboldened by its acquisition of bmi and bmi's precious Heathrow slots. Additional services to Beijing and Shanghai are constrained by the slot situation in those airports, so BA is targeting secondary cities (something of a misnomer given populations that exceed better-known European counterparts). BA has spoken of the potential to have upwards of five more Chinese destinations by the end of the decade, a very achievable goal considering the number of secondary cities competitors serve.
oneworld does not have a mainland Chinese member (Hainan is largely the only option left) and this is matter of contention between most oneworld members and Cathay Pacific, which sees itself as capable of serving the mainland China market (its Dragonair subsidiary is the largest foreign carrier in mainland China). BA especially however wants a mainland member and Mr Walsh will advocate for this. American Airlines, reflecting its focus on the US and Europe, is less pushy for a mainland member but already has a partnership with Hainan Airlines.
See related article: After Xiamen and Shenzhen Airlines join SkyTeam and Star, where next for global alliances in China?
Global alliances on Europe to China by capacity (seats) 13-May-2013 to 19-May-2013
|
Alliance |
Seats |
% of total |
|
112,606 |
47% |
|
|
Skyteam |
78,072 |
32% |
|
25,196 |
10% |
|
|
Non-aligned |
24,652 |
10% |
|
Total |
240,526 |
100% |
Top 20 airlines Europe to China by capacity (seats) 13-May-2013 to 19-May-2013
|
Rank |
Airline |
Total Seats |
% of Total |
|
1 |
53,788 |
22% |
|
|
2 |
28,048 |
12% |
|
|
3 |
20,912 |
9% |
|
|
4 |
18,988 |
8% |
|
|
5 |
16,376 |
7% |
|
|
6 |
16,344 |
7% |
|
|
7 |
13,300 |
6% |
|
|
8 |
10,860 |
5% |
|
|
9 |
9,968 |
4% |
|
|
10 |
7,840 |
3% |
|
|
11 |
7,388 |
3% |
|
|
12 |
6,370 |
3% |
|
|
13 |
5,880 |
2% |
|
|
14 |
5,452 |
2% |
|
|
15 |
3,792 |
2% |
|
|
16 |
2,700 |
1% |
|
|
17 |
2,700 |
1% |
|
|
18 |
2,520 |
1% |
|
|
19 |
2,496 |
1% |
|
|
20 |
2,298 |
1% |
|
|
Others |
2,506 |
1% |
|
|
Total |
240,526 |
100% |
Germany, France and the UK are biggest western Europe-China markets, but Spain remarkably small
The biggest Europe-China country pair is Germany, followed by Russia, France and the UK. Turkey is also a significant market, as is Italy in spite of the absence of its national carrier on routes to China. Remarkably, Spain is only the number 15 country on Europe-China routes. Given that Spain is Europe's sixth most populous country and the world's fourth biggest international aviation market, this is at first blush surprising.
The reason is that Asia is not in Iberia's genes. The carrier operates a westward-facing hub at Madrid with long-haul flights all going to the Americas or Africa; its furthest easterly route is to Israel. This weakness in Asia has been turned into an advantage to the Middle East network carriers.
See related article: Emirates' Spanish expansion highlights Iberia's long-haul weakness to the east
IAG is well aware of Iberia's absence in Asia, but addressing this - even before toils with Iberia's unions and mounting losses - has been difficult. Building the Iberia brand in Asia would take time and investment whereas using BA generates scale.
Iberia's main market is linking Europe to the Americas; Asia would represent a significant strategy shift. There is tremendous potential for linking the growth economies of Asia with Latin America, but the distances involved mean that non-stop flights will be very limited. While Iberia has the network in Latin America it does not have one in Asia. Conversely, BA has a sizeable network in Asia but is lighter in Latin America. IAG does not view two-stop Asia-Latin America connections in London Heathrow and Madrid as viable.
One-way seats between China and European countries 13-May-2013 to 19-May-2013
Source: CAPA - Centre for Aviation & Innovata
This analysis will focus on routes between China and the major western European countries, looking at the market share by seat capacity for the leading carriers on each country pair and which European and Chinese carriers operate on the relevant city pairs. In each of the three biggest markets - Germany, France and the UK - the European 'flag carrier' is the market leader, while a number of the smaller countries are dominated by a Chinese carrier. In all countries, routes to Chinese cities other than Beijing and Shanghai are often highly monopolistic.
Germany-China dominated by Star Alliance
Lufthansa has 54% on Germany-China and its Star partner Air China has 36%, giving the alliance a dominant position. Out of nine city pairs between Germany and China, only two include a non-Star competitor (Hainan Airlines is the only operator on Berlin-Beijing and China Eastern competes with the two Star carriers on Frankfurt-Shanghai).
Airlines Germany to China by capacity (seats) 13-May-2013 to 19-May-2013
|
Rank |
Airline |
Total Seats |
% of Total |
|
1 |
14,024 |
54% |
|
|
2 |
9,414 |
36% |
|
|
3 |
1,848 |
7% |
|
|
4 |
896 |
3% |
|
|
Total |
26,182 |
100% |
Germany to China passenger routes 13-May-2013 to 19-May-2013
|
European
|
Chinese city |
Carrier |
Weekly
|
Equipment |
Planned start
yet operated) |
|
4x |
|||||
|
4x |
A330-300 |
||||
|
14x |
777-300 |
||||
|
7x |
A380-800 |
||||
|
|
|
||||
|
3x |
19-May-2013 |
||||
|
|
|
||||
|
Nanjing (Nanking) |
3 x weekly |
A340-300 |
|||
|
7x |
|||||
|
7x |
A330-200 |
||||
|
14x |
747-400
|
||||
|
|
|||||
|
3 x weekly |
A340-300 |
||||
|
|
|||||
|
5x |
|||||
|
7x |
A340-600 |
||||
|
|
|||||
|
7x |
A340-600 |
France controlled by SkyTeam
Air France has 58% on France-China and its SkyTeam partners China Eastern and China Southern have 15% and 9% respectively, giving SkyTeam a dominant position. Out of five Chinese cities served from Paris CDG, only two include non-SkyTeam competitor Air China (on CDG to Beijing and Shanghai).
Airlines France to China by capacity (seats) 13-May-2013 to 19-May-2013
|
Rank |
Airline |
Total Seats |
% of Total |
|
1 |
10,456 |
58% |
|
|
2 |
3,344 |
18% |
|
|
3 |
2,640 |
15% |
|
|
4 |
1,708 |
9% |
|
|
Total |
18,148 |
100% |
France to China passenger routes 13-May-2013 to 19-May-2013
|
European city |
Chinese city |
Weekly Frequency |
Equipment |
Planned start
|
|
|
Paris CDG |
7x |
777-300 |
|||
|
|
12x |
777-300ER |
|||
|
|
|
|
|||
|
5 x weekly |
777-200 |
||||
|
|
7x |
A330-200 |
|||
|
|
|||||
|
4x |
A340 |
||||
|
|
12x |
777-300ER |
|||
|
|
|||||
|
10x |
A330-200 |
to 13x from 30-Sep-2013 |
|||
|
|
|
|
|||
|
3 x weekly |
777-200 |
UK-China is much more competitive - but the UK is disadvantaged by visa-related issues
The UK market is more competitive: British Airways has only 34% on UK-China and it has no oneworld partners between the two countries. Air China is not far behind with 29%. BA competes with Air China on London Heathrow to Beijing and Air China also flies to Beijing from Gatwick. On Heathrow to Shanghai, BA competes with China Eastern and local rival Virgin Atlantic, whose 17% share could move to SkyTeam alongside China Southern and China Eastern to give SkyTeam a total of 37% if Virgin decides to join the alliance following its partnership with Delta. BA will be increasing it Shanghai service from six times weekly to daily in Mar-2013 and starting Heathrow-Chengdu in Sep-2013 with a weekly frequency of three.
BA's entrance into Chengdu is its first route to a Chinese city other than the heavyweights of Beijing and Shanghai. Competitors Air France, Finnair, KLM and Lufthansa serve secondary cities.
Western European passenger routes to China, excluding Beijing and Shanghai: 20-Aug-2012 to 26-Aug-2012
| Carrier | Chinese city | European city | Frequency | Equipment | Commencement |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Air China | Chengdu | Frankfurt | n/a | n/a | 2013 - proposed |
| Air France | Guangzhou | Paris CDG | 4 x weekly | 777-200 | 2004 |
| Wuhan | Paris CDG | 3 x weekly | 777-200 | 2012 | |
| China Southern | Guangzhou | Amsterdam | Daily | A330-200 | 2011 |
| Guangzhou | Paris CDG | Daily | A330-200 | 2004 | |
| Guangzhou | London Heathrow | 3 x weekly | A330-200 | 2012 | |
| Finnair | Chongqing | Helsinki | 4 x weekly | A330-300 | 2012 |
| KLM | Chengdu | Amsterdam | 4 x weekly | 747-400 | 2006 |
| Hangzhou | Amsterdam | 4 x weekly | 777-200 | 2010 | |
| Xiamen | Amsterdam | 3 x weekly | 777-200 | 2011 | |
| Lufthansa | Nanjing (Nanking) | Frankfurt | 3 x weekly | A340-300 | 2008 |
| Shenyang-Qingdao | Frankfurt | 3 x weekly | A340-300 | 2012 |
See related articles:
- British Airways considers secondary Chinese cities, possible codeshare with China Southern
- China enters 2013 with new long-haul routes from BA, Finnair, Hainan, Qatar - and more to come
BA and the UK at large are disadvantaged in the China market. Connections in London to elsewhere in Europe are circuitous by nature. Visa formalities are also a significant hindrance. Aside from the excessive UK visa paperwork and fees compared to neighbouring countries, a UK visa only grants Chinese nationals entrance to the UK.
In comparison, applying for a visa to one of the Schengen countries gives entrance to the entire bloc, enabling Chinese nationals to take the grand European tour so many aspire to.
Airlines UK to China by capacity (seats) 13-May-2013 to 19-May-2013
|
Rank |
Airline |
Total Seats |
% of Total |
|
1 |
3,920 |
34% |
|
|
2 |
3,304 |
29% |
|
|
3 |
1,896 |
17% |
|
|
4 |
1,220 |
11% |
|
|
5 |
1,056 |
9% |
|
|
Total |
11,396 |
100% |
UK to China passenger routes 13-May-2013 to 19-May-2013
|
European city |
Chinese city |
Weekly
|
Equipment |
Planned start
|
|
|
4x |
|||||
|
7x |
|||||
|
7x |
747-400 |
||||
|
3x |
777-200 |
22-Sep-2013 |
|||
|
|
|||||
|
5x |
A330-200 |
||||
|
7x |
777-200 |
6x to 7x from 31-Mar-2013 |
|||
|
4x |
A330-200 |
||||
|
6x |
A340-600 |
Italy is controlled mainly by Air China
Air China has a strong position on Italy-China, a country pair that is not served by any Italian carrier from this summer (Alitalia will cease its four times weekly Rome-Beijing service in Mar-2013). Air China is a monopolist on Milan-Beijing, Milan-Shanghai and Rome-Beijing, while China Eastern is the sole operator on Rome-Shanghai.
Airlines Italy to China by capacity (seats) 13-May-2013 to 19-May-2013
|
Rank |
Airline |
Total Seats |
% of Total |
|
1 |
4,658 |
72% |
|
|
2 |
1,848 |
28% |
|
|
Total |
6,506 |
100% |
Italy to China passenger routes 13-May-2013 to 19-May-2013
|
European city |
Chinese city |
Weekly Frequency |
Equipment |
|
|
3x |
||||
|
7x |
||||
|
Rome FCO |
7x |
|||
|
|
||||
|
Rome FCO |
7x |
A330-200 |
The Netherlands dominated by SkyTeam
The Netherlands is the only sizeable Europe-China market where the flag carrier is both still present and is not the leader by seat capacity. Given that the leader is fellow SkyTeam member and strategic partner China Southern, KLM is unlikely to be troubled by what is a complete SkyTeam monopoly. The other interesting feature of Netherlands-China is that six Chinese cities are served from Amsterdam, more than any other European hub, with KLM serving five of them. As in Paris CDG, this positions SkyTeam carriers to compete strongly for connecting passengers to China from Spain and the UK, who are under-served by their own flag carriers.
These markets are heavy on connecting traffic; about 70% of KLM's total network traffic is connecting, according to the carrier. KLM has also worked with China Southern, and is now working with Sichuan Airlines, to spool-up sixth-freedom traffic.
Airlines Netherlands to China by capacity (seats) 13-May-2013 to 19-May-2013
|
Rank |
Airline |
Total Seats |
% of Total |
|
1 |
3,416 |
56% |
|
|
2 |
2,726 |
44% |
|
|
Total |
6,142 |
100% |
Netherlands to China passenger routes 13-May-2013 to 19-May-2013
|
European city |
Chinese city |
Carrier |
Weekly Frequency |
Equipment |
|
7x |
A330-200 |
|||
|
|
7x |
747-400 |
||
|
4 x weekly |
747-400 |
|||
|
7x |
A330-200 |
|||
|
3 x weekly |
777-200 |
|||
|
12x |
747-400 |
|||
|
3 x weekly |
777-200 |
Finnair's unusual and successful niche
Finland is an unusual and interesting case in that it is the most significant European market where routes to China are controlled by a single player. Moreover, the size of the Finland-China market by seats is much larger than might be expected given Finland's population of less than six million. The market is not much smaller than Italy-China, for example, although Italy's population is more than 10 times larger.
This reflects two very contrasting strategic approaches by the flag carriers. Alitalia simply does not fly to China (as from Mar-2013), preferring to offer its passengers flights on alliance partners' aircraft, while Finnair has carved a successful niche out of targeting passengers from Europe to Asia by taking advantage of the geographical positioning of its Helsinki hub. Finnair's strategy depends on feeder traffic from around Europe and this has sometimes proved a challenge, but the absence of any Chinese competitor at Helsinki demonstrates that it would be even more of a challenge for them. Moreover, setting aside Beijing and Shanghai, Finnair has also chosen destinations in China not served by other European carriers - namely, Chongqing and, starting on 14-Jun-2013, Xian.
See related article: Finnair is betting on Asian flights to underpin its growth
Airlines Finland to China by capacity (seats) 13-May-2013 to 19-May-2013
|
Rank |
Airline |
Total Seats |
% of Total |
|
1 |
4,984 |
100% |
Finland to China passenger routes 13-May-2013 to 19-May-2013
|
European city |
Chinese city |
Weekly Frequency |
Equipment |
Planned start
|
|
|
7x |
A340 |
||||
|
|
|
||||
|
4 x weekly |
A330-300 |
||||
|
|
|
||||
|
7x |
A340 |
||||
|
|
|
||||
|
Xian |
3x |
A330-300 |
14-Jun-2013 |
Switzerland is dominated by Star
The Swiss market is also dominated by the Star Alliance, with SWISS and Air China at number one and two respectively. SWISS serves Beijing and Shanghai from its Zurich hub.
Airlines Switzerland to China by capacity (seats) 13-May-2013 to 19-May-2013
|
Rank |
Airline |
Total Seats |
% of Total |
|
1 |
3,185 |
64% |
|
|
2 |
1,096 |
22% |
|
|
3 |
672 |
14% |
|
|
Total |
4,953 |
Switzerland to China passenger routes 13-May-2013 to 19-May-2013
|
European city |
Chinese city |
Weekly Frequency |
Equipment |
Planned start
|
|
|
7x |
A330-300 |
||||
|
7x |
A340-300 |
||||
|
4x |
A330-200 |
07-May-2013 |
Denmark: a small market controlled by SAS
SAS attempted some years ago to position itself as the logical choice for Europe-Asia passengers given the position of its Copenhagen hub on the great circle routes from western Europe. However, a combination of internal restructuring challenges and Finnair pursuing this strategy better have limited its success.
It remains a monopoly player on Denmark-China, but the size of this operation is not very significant and it only serves Beijing and Shanghai.
Airlines Denmark to China by capacity (seats) 13-May-2013 to 19-May-2013
|
Rank |
Airline |
Total Seats |
% of Total |
|
1 |
2,940 |
100% |
Denmark to China passenger routes 13-May-2013 to 19-May-2013
|
European city |
Chinese city |
Weekly Frequency |
Equipment |
|
|
7x |
A340-300 |
|||
|
5x |
A340-300 |
Smaller Europe-China country pairs are controlled by monopolists (mostly in Star alliance)
Airlines Sweden to China by capacity (seats) 13-May-2013 to 19-May-2013
|
Rank |
Airline |
Airline |
Total Seats |
% of Total |
|
1 |
1,505 |
100% |
Sweden to China passenger routes 13-May-2013 to 19-May-2013
|
European city |
Chinese city |
Weekly Frequency |
Equipment |
|
|
Stockholm |
5x |
A330-301 |
Airlines Austria to China by capacity (seats) 13-May-2013 to 19-May-2013
|
Rank |
Airline |
Total Seats |
% of Total |
|
1 |
1,350 |
100% |
Austria to China passenger routes 13-May-2013 to 19-May-2013
|
European city |
Chinese city |
Weekly Frequency |
Equipment |
|
|
6x |
767-300 |
Airlines Poland to China by capacity (seats) 13-May-2013 to 19-May-2013
|
Rank |
Airline |
Total Seats |
% of Total |
|
1 |
1,260 |
100% |
Poland to China passenger routes 13-May-2013 to 19-May-2013
|
European city |
Chinese city |
Weekly Frequency |
Equipment |
|
|
5x |
787-800 |
Belgium is the only Europe-China country pair controlled by a non-aligned carrier, Hainan Airlines, which has built a small but significant market share by attacking niche markets with no direct competitors (see also Berlin-Beijing).
Airlines Belgium to China by capacity (seats) 13-May-2013 to 19-May-2013
|
Rank |
Airline |
Total Seats |
% of Total |
|
1 |
1,120 |
100% |
Belgium to China passenger routes 13-May-2013 to 19-May-2013
|
European city |
Chinese city |
Weekly Frequency |
Equipment |
|
|
5x |
Airlines Spain to China by capacity (seats) 13-May-2013 to 19-May-2013
|
Rank |
|
Total Seats |
% of Total |
|
1 |
1,096 |
100% |
Spain to China passenger routes 13-May-2013 to 19-May-2013
|
European city |
Chinese city |
Weekly Frequency |
Equipment |
|
|
5x |
See related articles:
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Partnerships and investments are high on the agenda for China
British Airways' Mr Walsh last year talked pro-actively of investing to expand, where organic growth was not a sufficient strategy. Although there has been no major step in that direction yet, it is clear that Asian partnerships are an important feature of where IAG and BA see the future. The Europeans are not alone in this; many Asia Pacific airlines are also hoping to link closely with a Chinese airline on the crowded dance floor. US airlines are meanwhile not so preoccupied.
The introduction of Qatar Airways to oneworld will give the alliance - and IAG - some additional leverage in serving China when the Gulf carrier comes on line. This was one of the very reasons Finnair was reluctant to see Qatar admitted to the alliance. But, where the SkyTeam and Star members are reasonably well-established in their (not always easy) partnerships with Chinese airlines, this is an area where BA/IAG now has little option but to focus. And 2013 is the year when it needs to happen.