Bonza CEO Tim Jordan, speaking at CAPA Live from Puerto Rico October 2021, stated (13-Oct-2021) he anticipates Bonza will have no impacts on existing carriers in Australia in "any significant way". Mr Jordan added: "I guess... in terms of the point of four jet operators in the country... 21 years ago when Virgin Blue started... since that point, the population of Australia has grown by a third".
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The government of India has finally found a buyer for Air India, with Tata Group selected to take over the flag carrier as expected. But although Tata has won the bidding contest, it will face many challenges in operating the airline as a viable business.
The primary question will be how to move Air India towards profitability. Despite the sentimental appeal of returning the airline to the company that founded it in the 1930s, before its nationalisation in 1953, Tata Group will no doubt intend Air India to be a financial contributor at some point.
This would be quite some turnaround, as the airline was loss-making even before the pandemic arrived to decimate demand. Now it must contend with a potentially lengthy demand recovery period, as well as the continued rise of LCC competitors.
Tata Group will also have to align Air India with its other airline holdings and determine what degree of consolidation it can achieve.
The COVID-19 pandemic had some dramatic impacts on the annual orders and deliveries of the world's two leading commercial aircraft manufacturers.
Combined deliveries of Airbus and Boeing aircraft grew from 2010 to 2018, but Boeing's suspension of its 737 MAX production in 1Q2019 halted this growth and gave Airbus a clear lead. Combined deliveries then plummeted with the pandemic, and almost dried up in 2Q2020. Deliveries are recovering for both, with Airbus staying ahead of Boeing.
Orders were even more severely hit by the pandemic crisis, but Boeing's resumption of the MAX programme has helped its order cycle to recover more strongly than its delivery cycle (and more strongly than Airbus orders). Boeing also has a higher percentage of aircraft back in service than Airbus, as a result of its higher installed base in North America (where the recovery is most progressed).
This report presents data from Airbus, Boeing and the CAPA Fleet Database on the cycles of deliveries, orders and aircraft in service for the two manufacturers. The rise in these cycles is encouraging for the world's aviation industry.
Even in the heyday of the Soviet Union and the Ottoman Empire few could have anticipated that Moscow or Istanbul would head the table of the busiest transport stations in Europe, meaning, in this case – airports.
But that is the case in the first half of 2021 according to statistics recently released by ACI Europe, with those two cities providing the top five airports between them, and with St Petersburg and Antalya joining them to make it seven out of 10 for Turkey and Russia.
As CAPA has often emphasised these last few months, it is the continuation of domestic services in countries, with a big demand for them, which has led to this situation.
Or at least, mainly that domestic demand, as international vacation travel and transit have also played their part too.
Total seat numbers in Europe are 32.7% below 2019 levels in the week of 11-Oct-2021, the 11th week in the region of seat numbers at -33% to -35%.
Europe is still in fourth place in the regional capacity recovery ranking. The Middle East, where seat capacity is down by 38.5% versus 2019, has slipped to the bottom. This week (week commencing 11-Oct-2021), Asia Pacific is down by 38.3%, Africa by 30.4%, Latin America by 23.2%, and North America by 18.5%.
Airport passenger numbers in Europe were down by 39% versus 2019 in the week of 19-Sep-2021, the seventh week at a similar level, according to the most recent data from ACI Europe. This compared with capacity at -34% in that week. Europe's traffic recovery has a north-south divide, with Southern Europe stronger, while non-EU Eastern Europe is the strongest region.
Europe's capacity and passenger traffic as a percentage of 2019 levels both remain on plateaus. Nevertheless, there is some encouragement in capacity projections derived from schedules for 4Q2021. After many weeks of cuts to the outlook, capacity scheduled for 4Q2021 has stabilised at 73% of 2019 levels – up from 64% in 3Q2021.
The air cargo business continues to maintain strength even as recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic remains uneven. As a result, some US airlines that have leaned on cargo during the COVID-19 crisis plan to sustain some portion of those freight-only operations for the near term.
Overall, global cargo demand is projected to exceed 2019 levels both in 2021 and 2022, since the process of placing long haul aircraft back into passenger operations will take some time.
That could result in the boom times for cargo to continue as a lack of supply will help lift cargo rates to sustain record revenues well into 2021.
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Recorded at CAPA Live September
CEO Interview with Air Astana, President & CEO, Peter Foster
Speakers:
- CAPA - Centre for Aviation, EMEA Content Editor, Richard Maslen
- Air Astana, President & CEO, Peter Foster
CAPA Live is the most sought-after monthly global aviation event. Taking place on the second Wednesday of each month, thousands of industry colleagues from across the globe tune in for their monthly dose of aviation and travel news, analysis, and in-depth interviews with industry leaders. Register here to be part of our growing community.
JetBlue Airways plans to launch twice weekly New York JFK-Grand Cayman service from 16-Oct-2021, according to OAG. The route is also operated by Cayman Airways.
Madagascar's Government outlined (13/14-Oct-2021) plans for the recovery of Air Madagascar. The government stated the airline's debt stands at approximately USD80 million, due in part to the cost of leasing ATR aircraft from Air Austral. The government also reported mismanagement of the carrier and noted the size of the airline's workforce exceeds its requirements. An audit will be undertaken of all the airline's debts and the government stated contracts may be terminated. [more - original PR - Malagasy] [more - original PR - French]
Madagascar's Government outlined (13/14-Oct-2021) plans to progressively reopen the country's borders for air travel. Details include:
- Madagascar-Mauritius services operated by Air Mauritius and Madagascar-Reunion services operated by Air Austral were approved to resume on 23-Oct-2021;
- Long haul services to and from Europe will resume on 06-Nov-2021. The resumption of services between Antananarivo and Europe was approved for Air Madagascar and Air France. Charters from Milan and Rome to Andoany were also approved;
- The overall frequency of air services to Madagascar will be limited;
- All travellers entering Madagascar will be required to complete a COVID-19 PCR test. The cost of the EUR25 test will be included in airfares. Travellers must remain in isolation until they receive their test result. Those who receive a positive result must remain in isolation for 14 days. [more - original PR - Malagasy] [more - original PR - French]
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15-Oct-2021 2:46 PM
UK's Government to introduce lateral flow tests for vaccinated international arrivals
UK's Government stated (14-Oct-2021) from 24-Oct-2021, fully vaccinated passengers and most under 18s arriving in England from countries not on the red list can take a cheaper lateral flow test, instead of a PCR test, on or before day two of their arrival into the UK. These can be booked from 22-Oct-2021. The change will come into effect for those returning from half term breaks with lateral flow tests available to book through private providers listed on gov.uk. Anyone who tests positive will need to self-isolate and take a confirmatory PCR test. PCR tests can be accessed free of charge by ordering in the usual way through NHS Test and Trace. Providers will be expected to advise people to self-isolate and direct people towards the NHS Test and Trace booking page. [more - original PR]
New South Wales' (NSW) Premier Dominic Perrottet stated (15-Oct-2021) as of 01-Nov-2021, the NSW Government will remove quarantine requirements and caps for overseas arrivals who the Commonwealth Government recognises as fully vaccinated with a TGA-approved vaccine. Further advice about testing requirements for arrivals will be provided in the coming days. Fully vaccinated travellers already in quarantine will also complete their quarantine requirements on 01-Nov-2021, even if it is less than 14 days. Overseas arrivals who are not fully vaccinated will be capped at 210 people per week and will be required to undergo mandatory 14 day hotel quarantine. Travel between Greater Sydney, including the Blue Mountains, Wollongong, Shellharbour and the Central Coast, and Regional NSW will also be permitted from 01-Nov-2021, to allow people in the regions more time to receive their second vaccine. [more - original PR]
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Find Out MoreMalaysia CAPA Aviation Country Report Oct-2021
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Thailand CAPA Aviation Country Report Oct-2021
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Aviation returns to the 1930s
Issue 53
- There has been much talk about the post-COVID-19 industry reverting to the profile of the 1970s, but in two very important ways the real timeframe to compare is the 1930s.
Global Outlook 2020: A look into the coming decade, expect massive change
Issue 52
- If the first two decades of the century were transformational for the aviation industry, the 2020s will be revolutionary.