Qatar Airways’ pledge to freeze any plans for operating fifth freedom flights, followed by a similar deal with the UAE, has resulted in the US Big 3 claiming victory in their years-long subsidy campaign while American, Delta and United’s opponents in the debate are left scratching their heads over what exactly is being accomplished.
American, Delta and United have argued that their grievances were never about the elimination of fifth freedom flying on a broad scale. It was “subsidised” fifth freedom operations and the potential for expansion that raised their ire. A similar agreement with the UAE should allay the concerns of FedEx that its crucial global fifth freedom operations are not in jeopardy.
Emirates obviously has more skin in the game since it actually operates fifth freedom flights. But given that those operations represent a microscopic proportion of the airline’s operations, perhaps agreeing not to pursue further fifth freedom flying is a small price to pay in order to end the years-long subsidy controversy.
However, now that a similar agreement has been reached with the UAE, is it really the end of the debate or merely a temporary truce?
Rising oil prices focus airline management on the need for the latest generation of fuel efficient aircraft. For the bulk of airlines and the bulk of routes, where narrowbodies dominate, this means the Airbus A320neo and Boeing 737MAX families.
However, the 737 order backlog currently stands at around nine years, and the A320 backlog is 12 years (based on 2017 delivery numbers and current orders outstanding). Increases in production rates help to ease the backlog, but problems with engine delivery work against this.
This report examines data from the CAPA Fleet Database on Europe's A320neo and 737MAX fleets and orders. In Europe the A320neo is more popular than the 737MAX, and its popularity seems particularly high among LCCs. Pegasus Airlines is Europe's biggest neo operator and Norwegian is Europe's biggest MAX operator. Wizz Air has Europe's biggest neo order and Ryanair has Europe's biggest MAX order.
On 17-May-2018 Brent crude oil touched USD80 for the first time since Nov-2014. As of 17-May-2018, the average Brent crude oil price for the year to date was USD69 – a 28% increase on 2017's average price of USD54. If the price were to remain at USD80 for the rest of the year, the average for 2018 would then be USD76, which is 40% up on last year.
Based on the year to date jet fuel price of USD83 per barrel, IATA estimates that the world's airlines will pay USD39.3 billion more for fuel in 2018 than in 2017. With net profit at USD34.5 billion in 2017, this is a significant additional cost.
It is a sign of the airline industry's greater resilience that it can face the prospect of such a significant increase in fuel costs without the prospect of losses. Nevertheless, it is likely to be a factor in taking airline operating profit margins further down from recent cyclical peaks.
Royal Brunei Airlines has confirmed plans to launch nonstop flights to London following delivery later this year of a fifth 787-8. Royal Brunei has served London since 1990, initially as a two-stop service via Singapore and Dubai and since 2004 as a daily one-stop service via Dubai.
Offering a nonstop product from Bander Seri Begawan to London Heathrow is a major milestone for Royal Brunei which will raise the airline’s global profile and improve its position in the Southeast Asia-London and Australia-London markets. The new service will also raise Brunei’s profile as a country and could help Brunei meet its objective of doubling visitor numbers over the next four years.
However, the new 14-hour route will pose commercial challenges as Royal Brunei will need to rely heavily on sixth freedom traffic in a handful of extremely competitive city pairs. Royal Brunei is now offering very low fares on its new one-stop Melbourne-London connections.
Singapore Airlines (SIA) has unveiled plans to merge its regional full service subsidiary SilkAir into the parent airline in the next decade, following a major cabin product upgrade project that will involve retrofitting SilkAir’s entire fleet with lie-flat business class seats. Seatback inflight entertainment systems will also be installed as SIA upgrades SilkAir’s current product to SIA’s higher standards, resulting in a more seamless experience for the group’s full service passengers.
Once the more than USD100 million narrowbody retrofit programme is complete, SIA will have the distinction of offering lie-flat business class seats across the group's full service fleet. Earlier this year SIA announced the introduction of lie-flat business class seats on its regional widebody fleet as new 787-10s and regional A350-900s are delivered to replace A330-300s and older 777 variants, which are fitted with an outdated angled flat product.
SIA Group’s decision to upgrade its full service narrowbody product is sensible, given the large – and growing – product gap between the SilkAir narrowbody and Singapore Airlines' widebody fleets. Competitors have also been improving their narrowbody product, forcing SIA to make a move.
Meanwhile, the absorption of SilkAir into SIA should enable the group to reduce costs and improve efficiency as the number of operator's certificates, which just a year ago stood at five, is reduced to only two. The SIA Group has already merged the short haul LCC Tigerair with the long haul LCC Scoot and folded SIA Cargo back into SIA; the folding of SilkAir into SIA was inevitable.
European Commission director general for mobility and transport Henrik Hololei provides an update on the ongoing discussions over a new aviation agreement between the European Union and the United Kingdom after Brexit and warns of the real threat of no flights operating on day one. He highlights the progress of discussions on the EU-ASEAN open skies agreement and optimism an agreement could emerge before the end of 2018, while also highlighting the conclusion of agreements with Armenia and Tunisia; proposed agreements with Qatar, Turkey and Azerbaijan; and new mandates to negotiate with Mexico and Oman.
The two day CAPA LCCs in North Asia Summit aims to help bridge the gaps in awareness that exist between the stakeholders - to help create the conditions for a win-win in North Asian aviation and beyond.
Orlando International Airport reported (24-May-2018) the following traffic highlights for Apr-2018:
CAPA - Centre for Aviation, in a report entitled: 'US-Gulf airline conflict: peace with (almost) honour', stated (25-May-2018) the integrity of open skies agreements between the US, Qatar and the UAE remains intact, representing a positive outcome from the US-UAE open skies negotiations. Both sides in the Gulf subsidy debate have claimed victory, although these "declarations of victory could be somewhat premature". CAPA noted the subsidy issue could raise its "very ugly head" again, once Gulf airlines resume their growth to the US. [more - CAPA Analysis]
Abu Dhabi International Airport reported (24-May-2018) the following traffic highlights for Apr-2018:
The top five destinations from Abu Dhabi International Airport in Apr-2018 were London Heathrow, Manila, Jeddah, Bangkok, and Cairo. [more - original PR - English/Arabic]
Common Market for Eastern and Southern Africa (COMESA) announced (18-May-2018) the admission of Somalia to COMESA and a new COMESA airspace agreement. Somalia's accession follows successful conclusion of negotiations between Somalia and the COMESA Bureau of the Council of Ministers in early May-2018. The new airspace agreement aims at achieving a seamless upper airspace for the region. COMESA also disclosed that it is "about to secure funding" for construction of a new COMESA headquarters with a conference centre, a five star hotel and a shopping complex. [more - original PR]
US' Government Accountability Office (GAO) published (24-May-2018) the results of an audit on US FAA's management of safety risks related to drones. GAO reported:
GAO recommended that the FAA establish a mechanism to ensure that FAA's management of small UAS safety risks follows all applicable principles and requirements in the agency's policies. FAA agreed with GAO's recommendation. [more - original PR]
Hellenic Civil Aviation Authority (YPA) reported (24-May-2018) Greece's airports handle 9.9 million passengers for the first four months of 2018, up 6.4% year-on-year. Athens International Airport handled 1.9 million passengers. Airports with the highest growth include:
This report examines the credentials of a number of airlines and airports that are actively involved in the promotion of musical events, including performances on their own property (e.g. on board or in-terminal).
This report looks at what is new in the business and how the air-rail industry has developed.