North Atlantic aviation: immunised JVs dominate the recovery; LCCs growing but PLAY changes strategy
The market between Europe and North America continues to lead the long haul capacity recovery to/from Europe. North Atlantic seat numbers are scheduled to reach 106% of 2019 for 2024, compared with 102% for the overall Europe market.
There is only one European airline in the North Atlantic top five by seats in 2024 (British Airways, ranked behind United Airlines and Delta Air Lines, but above American Airlines and Air Canada).
European airlines still have more than half of seats in this route region, but their share has been eroded since 2019.
The antitrust immune joint ventures have lost some share in 2024 versus 2023, but have strengthened their position since 2019. Low cost share has diminished since 2019, with the withdrawal of Norwegian and the collapse of WOW air, but it has grown in each of the past three years.
The decision by Icelandic carrier PLAY to focus more on European leisure flying and reduce its North American operation in 2025 will influence the LCC share.
The resurgence of low cost airlines on the North Atlantic is still a sideshow compared to the dominance of the JVs, but is keeping disruptive innovation alive in the market.
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