Middle East aviation: capacity cuts in Israel, also Lebanon, Jordan and Iran
A year on from the 7-Oct-2023 Hamas attacks on Israel, the widening of the conflict sparked by that event has had a significant negative impact on aviation markets in the region.
Israel outpaced the Middle East's capacity recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic until 12 months ago. Since then, it has fallen well behind, and it is scheduled to be at only 63% of 2019 capacity in 2024.
However, while foreign airlines have cut capacity on international routes to/from Israel, El Al is projected to operate 104% of its 2019 seat numbers in 2024.
The spread of armed conflict in the region has also resulted in depressed aviation capacity in other countries, including Lebanon, Jordan, Iran and others.
A raft of international airlines have announced further suspensions of services to all of these nations, in many cases until later in Oct-2024. However, with considerable uncertainty surrounding the geopolitical course of events, route suspensions could continue for much longer.
- Israel capacity is at 70% of its 2019 levels, vs 106% for Middle East overall; for much of 2023 its capacity recovery outpaced the Middle East.
- International routes to/from Europe are Israel's biggest market.
- Only 33 airlines now operate international Israel routes – down from 73 a year ago in 2023.
- El Al's seat share has grown over the past year, albeit in a smaller market, but it lagged market growth and lost share between 2012 and 2019.
- LCC seat share grew steadily until 2022, but has fallen since late 2023.
- Other Middle East countries are also experiencing big capacity declines, including Lebanon, Jordan and Iran.
Israel capacity is at 70% of its 2019 levels, versus 106% for the Middle East overall
In the week commencing 7-Oct-2024, seat capacity scheduled for Israel is at 70.4% of the equivalent week of 2019, according to data from CAPA - Centre for Aviation and OAG.
This compares with a level of 105.9% for the Middle East region as a whole (slightly above the global average of 106.4%, and 3.3ppts better than Europe, at 102.6%).
Israel is only a little below its 2024 year-to-date high point of 72.8%, reached in the week of 16-Sep-2024.
For much of 2023 Israel's capacity recovery outpaced the Middle East
For the first nine months of 2023, before the Hamas attacks, Israel's seat capacity had averaged 109.0% of 2019 levels. This was ahead of the Middle East as a whole, which was averaging 100.0%.
However, Israel's capacity slumped in the weeks after the attacks, and reached a low of 28.1% in the week of 13-Nov-2023.
It then followed a broadly recovering path until its peak in mid Sep-2024.
It is projected to fall to 62.4% in the week of 21-Oct-2024.
International routes to/from Europe are Israel's biggest market
Before the conflict Israel's aviation market was dominated by international destinations, which accounted for 98% of seat capacity in the week of 9-Oct-2023.
Although located in the Middle East, Israel's most important international market - by far - was Europe, accounting for 77% of international seats.
This was fairly well balanced between Eastern/Central Europe (42%) and Western Europe (35%).
Israel to Eastern/Central Europe capacity has been more resilient than to Western Europe
In the week of 7-Oct-2024 Europe remained Israel's most important international region, accounting for 81% of international seats, although with 40% fewer seats than 12 months ago in 2023.
Eastern/Central Europe's share has increased to 56%, whereas Western Europe's has fallen to 31%.
This is because capacity to/from Eastern/Central Europe has fallen by 'only' 24%, while Western Europe seat number are down by 59% over the past year.
There are now 33 airlines that operate international Israel routes - down from 73 a year ago
According to data from OAG, the number of airlines operating international routes to/from Israel is 33 in the week of 7-Oct-2024.
This is 40 fewer than the 73 that were operating one year previously, and 35 fewer than the 68 in the equivalent week of 2019.
El Al's seat share has grown over the past year, albeit in a smaller market
The withdrawal of a number of foreign airlines, and capacity cuts by others, has resulted in an increased seat share of a smaller market for Israel's biggest airline, El Al.
There has also been significant volatility in its share of the market.
In the final full week before the Hamas attacks (i.e. the week commencing 25-Sep-2023), El Al was Israel's leading airline, with 19.8% of seats, ahead of Israir, with 7.0%, and Wizz Air, with 6.3% (Wizz Air Group's total share of 8.7% placed it second); and Turkish Airlines with 5.7%.
In the week of 13-Nov-2023, when capacity in Israel slumped to its low point as a percentage of 2019 levels, El Al's seat share was 65.1%.
El Al's seat share was 41.1% in the week of 7-Oct-2024, compared with 21.0% a year ago in 2023, and 19.1% in the equivalent week of 2019.
El Al lagged market growth and lost share between 2012 and 2019
Before COVID-19 and the conflicts of the past year, Israel was a growth market in aviation.
The Israel-EU open skies agreement, implemented progressively between 2013 and 2018, had a positive impact on market growth.
Between 2012 and 2019 Israel annual capacity increased by a factor of 2.3 times. However, the capacity of the national flag carrier El Al grew only 1.5 times.
As a result, El Al's seat share fell from 34.2% in 2012 to 22.8% in 2019.
Annual seats: Israel market and El Al, 2012 to 2024*
El Al's seat share has been distorted both by the COVID-19 pandemic and recent conflicts
The national airline's annual seat share dipped as low as 14.8% in 2020, in the COVID-19 crisis.
It recovered from that low point to 21.0% in 2022, and 22.1% in 2023.
Due to the withdrawal of significant capacity by international competitors in 2024, El Al's seat share in 2024 is scheduled to rise to 37.6%, which is its highest in more than a decade.
The two other main Israeli competitors are also projected to capture higher seat shares in 2024.
Israir's seat share is scheduled to be 11.3% tin 2024, up from 3.8% in 2019, while Arkia Israeli Airlines is scheduled to have 6.2%, compared with 4.1% in 2019.
Annual seat share of El Al, Israir and Arkia Israeli Airlines, 2012 to 2024*
Although Israel capacity overall is scheduled to be only 63% of its 2019 level this year, the three major Israeli airlines are at much higher percentages.
El Al is projected to be at 104% of 2019 capacity in 2024, with Israir at 190% and Arkia at 95%.
LCC seat share grew steadily until 2022, but has fallen since late 2023
The longer trend in El Al's seat share before the pandemic and the conflicts since Oct-2023 was one of decline, whereas LCC share grew.
LCCs' annual share of international seats to/from Israel grew from just 0.4% in 2008 to 20.5% in 2019, and to 27.8% in 2022.
However, this has fallen to 15.8% for the first 10 months of 2024, since LCCs are among the international airlines that have cut their services to Israel.
Israel: LCC seat share on international routes, 2008 to 2024*
Other Middle East countries are also experiencing big capacity declines…
As conflict in the Middle East spreads and fears grow that more countries may be affected, Israel is not the only country in the region suffering from low levels of aviation capacity.
Middle East capacity overall rose as high as 111.8% of 2019 levels in the week of 15-Apr-2024, before easing back to 105.9% in the week of 7-Oct-2024.
The number of airlines on international routes serving the Middle East as a whole was 161 in the week of 7-Oct-2019 and 171 a year ago, but was 162 in the week of 7-Oct-2024.
…including Lebanon…
Lebanon's aviation capacity was also affected last year after the 7-Oct-2023 attacks, falling to 58% of 2019 levels in Nov-2023. It recovered to a 2024 peak level of 88.0% in the week of 10-Jun-2024, but was down to 43.0% in the week of 7-Oct-2024.
The number of airlines on international routes to Lebanon has fallen from 44 in the week of 7-Oct-2019, to 36 a year ago, and to 16 now.
…Jordan…
Jordan seat capacity peaked at 110.6% in the week of 17-Jun-2024, but has slipped to 93.0% in the week of 7-Oct-2024.
In Jordan there were 41 airlines on international routes five years ago and one year ago, but this has now fallen to 38.
…and Iran
Iran is now at 80.2% of 2019 seat numbers, having peaked at 90.3% in the week of 8-Apr-2024.
Full resumption of suspended services to the region is unpredictable
Recent announcements of route suspensions have been plentiful.
Airlines extending the suspension of services to Beirut include Etihad Airways (to 17-Oct-2024), flydubai (to 31-Oct-2024), and Air France (to 26-Oct-2024).
Services to Tel Aviv with suspension extensions include those by Air Europa (until 14-Oct-2024), Air France (until 15-Oct-2024), KLM (until the end of 2024), British Airways (until 26-Oct-2024) and Ryanair (to the end of Jan-2025).
Ryanair has also suspended flights to Amman, Jordan (until the end of Oct-2024).
Emirates Airline is extending the suspension of services to Iraq and Iran until 16-Oct-2024.
The announced end-dates for these suspensions should not be taken as guaranteed.
In reality, the rolling postponement by international airlines of the resumption of their flights to Israel is likely to continue while hostilities persist.