After Xiamen and Shenzhen Airlines join SkyTeam and Star, where next for global alliances in China?

Almost two-thirds of China's domestic airline capacity is now aligned to global marketing alliances following Xiamen Airlines and Shenzhen Airlines' respective entry into SkyTeam and Star Alliance in late Nov-2012. SkyTeam remains the largest alliance in China with 44% of the market while Star has 20% and oneworld no members. While only one-fifth of Chinese carriers are a member now of a global alliance, the majority of the remaining carriers are affiliated with one of China's big four airlines: Air China, China Eastern, China Southern and Hainan Airlines. None are pending members to join an alliance.

Should smaller unaligned carriers choose to enter a global alliance, they will likely follow their parent company, as Xiamen and Shenzhen did: Xiamen is partially owned by SkyTeam's China Southern, and Shenzhen by Star's Air China. Based on current capacity and ownership ties, SkyTeam could claim upwards of 50% of the domestic market and Star 26%.

But the smaller carriers are growing rapidly and new airlines are forming. Plus, Hainan Airlines parent HNA, with 15% of the total market, is unaligned but with eyes on oneworld, which has no domestic members but is very itchy for them. The match may seem perfect but is contentious. If it occurs, the membership will be momentous - possibly even more so than Qatar Airways joining oneworld.