Europe-India aviation: healthy growth, but potential still untapped
The market between Europe and India took a hit a year before the COVID-19 crisis - the former market leader Jet Airways ceased operations in Apr-2019. It has recovered well from both challenges.
Seat capacity between Europe and India in the week of 1-Jul-2024 was 21% above its level of six years ago in 2018. There are 18 airlines operating in Jul-2024, which is a net increase of four since Jul-2018 (when Jet Airways was still active).
India is only Europe's number four long haul market, and is much smaller than the top three - namely, the USA, Canada and China.
Europe-India has been the fastest growing of these four markets from Europe since 2018, but is still little more than half the size of Europe-China (despite India's population being very similar to China's).
Subject to accommodation by infrastructure and bilaterals, the level of untapped demand offers potential for further strong growth in nonstop services from Europe to India.
- Europe-India capacity is 52% higher than 2019 levels, but the comparison is distorted by Jet Airways' exit in Apr-2019.
- Capacity is 21% above 2018 levels.
- The number of airlines has grown from 14 in Jul-2018 to 18 in Jul-2024, led by Air India, followed by Lufthansa and British Airways.
- The number of Europe-India airports has grown from 25 to 29, led by London Heathrow in Europe and Delhi in India.
- The number of routes is up from 35 to 44.
Europe-India capacity is 52% higher than the 2019 levels…
Since the COVID-19 pandemic it has become common to compare capacity in aviation markets for a given period under analysis with the equivalent period of 2019.
This year, in the week of 1-Jul-2024, capacity between Europe and India is 52% higher than it was in the week of 1-Jul-2019 (source: CAPA - Centre for Aviation/OAG).
…but the comparison is distorted by Jet Airways' exit in Apr-2019
However, this comparison is distorted.
Jet Airways, which had been the leader by seats in this market, went out of business in Apr-2019 after expanding aggressively over the previous two years.
After a number of years of very little market growth, Jet Airways' expansion had added 25% more seats between Jul-2016 and Jul-2018. Its demise took the market back to its 2016 level by Jul-2019.
The remaining Europe-India competitors did little to fill the gap it left, leaving the market somewhat depressed in the summer of 2019 (there were 20% fewer seats in the week of 1-Jul-2019 compared with a year earlier).
The final full year of Jet Airways' operations was 2018, which was a high point in Europe-India capacity and so, is the basis for comparisons in this analysis.
Europe to India: total weekly seats, Sep-2011 to Dec-2024*
Market capacity is 21% above 2018 levels
According to data from CAPA - Centre for Aviation/OAG, total capacity between Europe and India was 218,000 seats in the week of 1-Jul-2024.
This makes India the fourth largest long haul market to/from Europe, after the USA, Canada and China.
Nevertheless, although India and China both have around 1.4 billion people, Europe-India capacity is barely half that of Europe-China's 422,000 seats.
Nevertheless, Europe-India capacity in the week of 1-Jul-2024 was 21% more than in the equivalent week of 2018.
This growth compares favourably with an increase of 9% in Europe-USA capacity, 11% in Europe-Canada, and no growth in Europe-China over the same time frame.
The number of airlines has grown from 14 in Jul-2018 to 18 in Jul-2024…
The market between Europe and India consists of 18 airlines in the week of 1-Jul-2024, which is up from 14 in the week of 2-Jul-2018.
The net increase of four operators over this period follows the exit of four (Jet Airways, Alitalia, Brussels Airlines and Ukraine International) and the entry of eight.
The most recent new entrant on Europe-India - albeit a very small one - is the virtual airline 'World Ticket Ltd', which started a three times weekly service between the Armenian capital Yerevan and the Indian capital Delhi in early Jul-2024.
The other new entrants since 2018 are:
- Vistara on Delhi to Frankfurt, Paris CDG and Heathrow and on Mumbai to Frankfurt and Paris;
- The low cost operator IndiGo on Delhi to Istanbul, Baku and Tbilisi;
- ITA Airways on Rome-Delhi;
- LOT Polish on Warsaw Chopin to Delhi and Mumbai;
- Azerbaijan Airlines on Baku to Mumbai and Delhi;
- Neos on Rome and Milan to Amritsar;
- Belavia on Minsk to Delhi.
…led by Air India, Lufthansa and British Airways
Air India was the biggest airline by seats between Europe and India, with a seat share of 22.1% in the week of 1-Jul-2024. Two other airlines also had a double digit seat share: Lufthansa, with 14.5%, and British Airways, with 12.3%.
Collectively, these leading three airlines have a seat share of 48.9%, which is very similar to their combined share of 48.3% in the equivalent week of 2018.
However, Air India's share has grown compared with 2018 (it was 19.3% six years ago), whereas Lufthansa and British Airways collectively have lost share broadly equivalent to Air India's gain.
The recently approved merger of fourth placed Vistara with Air India would take the enlarged group's share of Europe-India seats to 31.7%.
In the week of 2-Jul-2018 Jet Airways was the leader, with 22.7% of seats. Its seat share of six years ago is almost the same as the current seat share of the new entrants in the market.
Among the airlines outside the top three that were also in the market six years ago, Virgin Atlantic's share has increased the most (from 2.1% to 7.4%), whereas Aeroflot's has fallen the most (from 3.8% to 1.0%).
Virgin Atlantic is offering more than four times the seat capacity it flew to India six years ago, whereas Aeroflot is offering only one third of its Jul-2018 capacity.
With the exception of Aeroflot, all the other participants that remain from six years ago have more capacity in Jul-2024 than they had in Jul-2018.
Europe-India: airlines ranked by seats, week of 1-Jul-2024
|
Rank |
Airline |
Seats |
Seat share |
Percentage of 2018* |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
1 |
48,051 |
22.1% |
139% |
|
|
2 |
31,620 |
14.5% |
115% |
|
|
3 |
26,774 |
12.3% |
109% |
|
|
4 |
Vistara** |
20,860 |
9.6% |
- |
|
5 |
IndiGo** |
16,754 |
7.7% |
- |
|
6 |
16,142 |
7.4% |
437% |
|
|
7 |
10,852 |
5.0% |
123% |
|
|
8 |
10,635 |
4.9% |
181% |
|
|
9 |
9,940 |
4.6% |
102% |
|
|
10 |
6,608 |
3.0% |
112% |
|
|
11 |
4,172 |
1.9% |
191% |
|
|
12 |
4,060 |
1.9% |
112% |
|
|
13 |
3,318 |
1.5% |
- |
|
|
14 |
2,604 |
1.2% |
- |
|
|
15 |
2,226 |
1.0% |
33% |
|
|
16 |
Neos** |
1,436 |
0.7% |
- |
|
17 |
World Ticket Ltd** |
876 |
0.4% |
- |
|
18 |
Belavia** |
696 |
0.3% |
- |
|
Total |
217,624 |
100.0% |
121% |
The number of Europe-India airports has grown from 25 to 29…
The total number of airports in the Europe-India market has increased from 25 six years ago in 2018 to 29 in the week of 1-Jul-2024.
The number of European airports is up from 18 to 20, and the number in India is up from seven to nine.
In Europe, the net increase of two airports is the result of five exits (Brussels, Istanbul Ataturk, Kyiv Boryspil, Madrid and Stockholm Arlanda) and seven entries (Istanbul, London Gatwick, Baku, Warsaw Chopin, Tbilisi, Yerevan and Minsk).
…led by London Heathrow in Europe…
London Heathrow remains the largest European airport by seats in the market to India, with a seat share of 30.1%, although this has slipped from 33.8% six years ago.
Three other European airports also have a double digit seat share: Frankfurt (14.2%), Istanbul (10.6%) and Paris CDG (10.5%).
In Jul-2018 Amsterdam was fourth, with 10.8%, but its share has fallen to 6.5%, and it is now ranked fifth. Although KLM has grown its capacity and Air India has entered, the gap left by Jet Airways' exit has not been fully filled at Amsterdam.
Istanbul has replaced it in the top four, with more than double the capacity offered by its predecessor, Ataturk, six years ago.
All other leading European airports that were also present six years ago have increased their capacity to India.
Europe-India: European airports ranked by seats, week of 1-Jul-2024
|
Rank |
Airport |
Seats |
Seat share |
Percentage of 2018* |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
1 |
London (LHR) |
65,443 |
30.1% |
108% |
|
2 |
Frankfurt (FRA) |
30,946 |
14.2% |
129% |
|
3 |
Istanbul (IST) |
22,988 |
10.6% |
235% |
|
4 |
Paris (CDG) |
22,780 |
10.5% |
113% |
|
5 |
Amsterdam (AMS) |
14,219 |
6.5% |
73% |
|
6 |
Munich (MUC) |
12,602 |
5.8% |
179% |
|
7 |
Zurich (ZRH) |
8,656 |
4.0% |
146% |
|
8 |
London (LGW) |
6,144 |
2.8% |
- |
|
9 |
Baku (GYD) |
5,194 |
2.4% |
- |
|
10 |
Milan (MXP) |
4,661 |
2.1% |
228% |
|
11 |
Rome (FCO) |
4,419 |
2.0% |
85% |
|
12 |
Helsinki (HEL) |
4,172 |
1.9% |
191% |
|
13 |
3,318 |
1.5% |
- |
|
|
14 |
Birmingham (BHX) |
3,072 |
1.4% |
86% |
|
15 |
Copenhagen (CPH) |
2,560 |
1.2% |
125% |
|
16 |
Moscow (SVO) |
2,226 |
1.0% |
33% |
|
17 |
Vienna (VIE) |
1,536 |
0.7% |
75% |
|
18 |
Tbilisi (TBS) |
1,116 |
0.5% |
- |
|
19 |
876 |
0.4% |
- |
|
|
20 |
696 |
0.3% |
- |
|
|
Total |
217,624 |
100.0% |
121% |
…and Delhi in India
On the Indian side of the market, airports are more concentrated.
Delhi and Mumbai continue to dominate, with 80.6% of seats between them in the week of 1-Jul-2024. This is down from 82.7% six years earlier, but only because Mumbai's share has fallen from 33.0% to 29.4%. Delhi's seat share is up from 49.7% to 51.2%.
Hyderabad's capacity to Europe has more than doubled, and Amritsar's is up more than four times. Chennai's has fallen by 38%, and Ahmedabad's is down by 25%.
The total number of Indian airports offering services to Europe has grown from seven to nine, but the new entrants Kochi/Cochin and Goa Mopa each have a seat share of under 1%.
Europe-India: Indian airports ranked by seats, week of 1-Jul-2024
|
Rank |
Airport |
Seats |
Seat share |
Percentage of 2018* |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
1 |
Delhi (DEL) |
111,528 |
51.2% |
125% |
|
2 |
Mumbai (BOM) |
63,922 |
29.4% |
108% |
|
3 |
Bengaluru (BLR) |
20,540 |
9.4% |
131% |
|
4 |
Hyderabad (HYD) |
6,734 |
3.1% |
224% |
|
5 |
Chennai (MAA) |
5,784 |
2.7% |
62% |
|
6 |
Amritsar (ATQ) |
4,508 |
2.1% |
440% |
|
7 |
Ahmedabad (AMD) |
1,536 |
0.7% |
75% |
|
8 |
Kochi/Cochin (COK) |
1,536 |
0.7% |
- |
|
9 |
Goa Mopa (GOX) |
1,536 |
0.7% |
- |
|
Total |
217,624 |
100.0% |
121% |
The number of routes is up from 35 to 44
The number of routes between Europe and India is up from 35 in the week of 2-Jul-2018 to 44 in the week of 21-Jul-2024.
The two biggest routes by seats are London Heathrow-Delhi (12.8% of seats) and London Heathrow-Mumbai (10.4%).
Six years ago these were also the two biggest routes, but London Heathrow-Mumbai was first with 14.1% of seats and London Heathrow-Delhi was second with (13.2%).
Europe-India is underserved by direct flights
A significant proportion of Europe-India O&D traffic connects via the Gulf airlines' Middle East hubs and, to a lesser extent, via Istanbul with Turkish Airlines.
Emirates Airline operates 124,000 weekly seats to/from India, Etihad Airways 72,000 and Qatar Airways 49,000.
Only part of the Gulf airlines' capacity to India is serving demand to/from Europe, but these figures compare with Air India's 48,000, Lufthansa's 32,000 and British Airways' 27,000 on direct routes between Europe and India.
The majority of airline passengers arriving in India from key source markets, which include Europe, make at least one stop on the way.
Nevertheless, Europe-India remains underserved by direct flights.
The sheer size of India, the strength of the ties between India and many European countries, and the development of more efficient longer range aircraft types must surely increase the size of this market over time.