CAPA’s most viewed analysis articles for 2023

Islamabad Airport concession looks destined to go to the Middle East

Airport concessions and moves towards privatisation are always attention getters. With significant money at stake, competing parties and the vagaries of national interests, privatisations usually have lots of delicate moving parts.

With Pakistan in the middle of an ongoing financial crisis, the Islamabad Airport concession is particularly interesting. In Aug-2023, the Pakistan Civil Aviation Authority (PCAA) issued a Request for Proposals (RFP) for the public-private operation of the airport.

While Pakistan's Minister of Aviation Khawaja Saad Rafique insists the planned 15-year agreement is not a privatisation, given the scope of the concession arrangements it is hard to see it as anything but. Further intrigue is added thanks to the previously declared interest of the Qatar Investment Authority sovereign wealth fund in investing in Karachi and Islamabad.

Adding a further layer is news that the Islamabad transaction is one of several state-owned enterprises (SOEs) that the current government wants to shift into private hands. This could also include the privatisation of national carrier Pakistan International Airlines, which appears to be back on the agenda.

Icelandair's Detroit route crosses the eight-mile line; what it means for Icelandair and DTW

The trans-Atlantic market was one of the major success stories for aviation in 2022 and this continued into 2023. With North America and Europe fully re-opened to travel, airlines have spent most of the year repairing networks between the two continents, adding capacity on popular routes, re-opening travel to previously shuttered destinations and exploring new connections.

While Icelandair opening a four times weekly Keflavik-Detroit service may not seem like one of the most important stories of the year, it speaks to the success airlines have seen travelling across the North Atlantic this year and the future of Keflavick as a Europe-North America hub. Icelandic rival PLAY already operated on the route and Delta Air Lines resumed it's own Keflavik-Detroit seasonal route in May-2023 (continuing to Oct-2023).

The acid test for the North Atlantic market will be whether routes like Keflavik-Detroit, driven by tourism and onward connecting traffic, will be maintained in the future.

'Never give up, never surrender'; Doncaster seeks support to reopen its airport

Everyone likes a comeback story, especially when the main character is an underdog. Doncaster Sheffield Airport was forced to close in Nov-2022 thanks to the decision of Wizz Air to close its base.

However, the City of Doncaster Council in South Yorkshire decided that surrender was not an option.

In Jul-2023, it launched a search to locate an investor and/or operator. In a kind of 'reverse privatisation' the Council has suggested leases the airport from Peel Airports and managing it in collaboration with private sector investors and operational managers.

MAHB proposes redevelopment of Kuala Lumpur's second airport as a complete aerospace ecosystem

Re-inventing old airports is a perennially interesting topic, and MAHB's proposals on the future of Kuala Lumpur's original Sultan Abdul Aziz Shah (Subang) International Airport is no exception. Having been overtaken in terms of traffic, first by Don Muang and then by Suvarnabhumi , the airport was slowly dwindling into insignificance.

Tasked by the government in Feb-2023 with finding a way to revive the site, MAHB responded by proposing a plan to reinvigorate the airport as an aerospace centre, refurbishing its terminal while also growing out its operations in MRO, general aviation and technology services.

A successful redevelopment of Subang airport might just set the model for the resurrection of smaller and hemmed in airports across the region. With demand for air travel - be it commercial, business or private -still growing rapidly, such redevelopment could support broader aviation growth across the Asia Pacific.

The world's airports - the state of the industry in Jan-2023 in 11 numbers

If Buzzfeed has taught us one thing, it's that the internet loves lists. It should not be surprising then that a list of 11 key statistics around airports was among the most popular articles on the CAPA website for 2023.

Facts listed included:

• There were 3.8 billion passengers in 2022 - 83% of the 2019 total;
• Atlanta was the largest airport by passengers last year - with 85.8 million passengers;
• Atlanta was also the largest airport by seat capacity, while Dubai was the largest by international seats;
• London was the largest city by passengers across all its airports - with more than 100 million in 2022;
• There were 425 known major airport infrastructure construction projects globally (which are all listed in the CAPA Airport Construction Database)

If you want to know the rest of the statistics, you'll have to click though and read the article.

MIAC consortium submits another unsolicited USD1.8 billion offer to upgrade Manila Airport

As noted above, airport privatisation is always an interesting topic. Doubly so when there are some elements of controversy. In May-2023, the Manila International Airport Consortium (MIAC) 'super consortium' submitted an unsolicited offer to upgrade Manila Ninoy Aquino International Airport (NAIA) for more than PHP100 billion (USD1.80 billion). A Philippines consortium failed with a similar unsolicited bid in 2017, but has returned with international backing and a much more favorable environment. The Philippines' new government is encouraging public-private partnerships and has developed a strategy for Philippine airports.

A major expansion of infrastructure at NAIA is clearly needed, but with Manila potentially being served by four airports in the near future, is this a case of too much capacity rather than too little?

Uncertainty clouds WestJet's acquisition of Sunwing Airlines

In the post-pandemic period, North American airline consolidation has been a hot topic.

In Canada, Air Transat and Porter Airlines have announced a JV agreement, while WestJet has acquired SunJet Airlines and announced it would merge their business, while also winding up its Swoop brand.

In the US, competing bids were launched in 2023 for Horizon Airline from Spirit Airlines and JetBlue. Later in the year Alaska Airlines and Hawaiian Airlines announced a merger agreement, which if approved will create a new fifth largest carrier in the US.

In the background looms concerns from aviation and competition regulators that consolidation could lessen competition in some sectors. As larger carriers continue to swallow up their brethren, the fate of small airlines in North America may just be sitting in the hands of regulators rather than the airlines themselves.

Johannesburg Airport passenger traffic recovery depends on SAA and new long haul routes

The recovery of traffic from the COVID-19 pandemic continues to capture attention in commercial aviation circles. While most markets are roughly back at pre-pandemic levels certain standouts - for either overperformance or underperformance - grab our attention.

Johannesburg OR Tambo International Airport is, unfortunately, an example of one of those underperforming markets. Despite a number of airlines launching new services, and the resurrection of long-haul routes, the airport remains well behind its pre-pandemic levels of capacity (as does South Africa more broadly).

While these new routes hint at greater status for Johannesburg as a long-haul hub, its future path will be decided by whether or not South African Airways can return to a semblance of its former power.

Europe's top 20 airline groups by passengers 2022: Ryanair extends its lead

What's better than a list when it comes to our attention? A ranking. CAPA ranked the top 20 European airlines by passengers for 2022 - with Ryanair (perhaps unsurprisingly) not only taking first place but growing its lead over its rivals. Interestingly for market watchers, five of the top 20 groups carried more passengers in 2022 than in 2019. Four of these were LCCs: Volotea, Wizz Air, Ryanair Group and Jet2.com. Four of the top eight airline groups operate multiple brands. LCC subsidiaries mainly recovered more quickly than legacy brands.

Malaysia's 2023 traffic growth could exceed forecast - again

Forecasts are always interesting and informative - particularly when they come from official sources. They provide us with an outlook for markets and insight into the thinking of the forecaster. In late 2022, the MAVCOM (Malaysian Aviation Commission) issued a forecast for the country's aviation market for 2023, projecting that the pace of traffic growth would continue to build momentum. With an best case of 52% growth and a worst case of 40%, MAVCOM was conscious that the timing of the reopening of the Mainland China market would be a crucial factor for the recovery.