A region without air service? Some Middle East airports face the prospect as political tensions rise

The air transport industry as a whole, and especially those airports and airlines in the Middle East, stand on the cusp of yet another 'Black Swan' event.

With daggers drawn between Israel and Hamas, also Israel and Hezbollah, which operates out of Lebanon to the north, and Israel embroiled in a proxy war with Iran which is on the verge of escalating into a real one, comparisons can be drawn with other black swans.

Mid Aug-2024 is the equivalent of Feb-2020, when COVID-19 had long left China and infected thousands in countries like Italy, Spain and Iran - and it was about to envelop the world. And Jan-2022, as Russian forces congregated on Russia's border with Ukraine.

It could even be compared with Jun-1914 - the Archduke Franz Ferdinand taking a wrong turn in Sarajevo and being assassinated for his trouble. Or Sep-1938 and British Prime Minister Neville Chamberlain waving a piece of paper around and hopefully declaring 'Peace in our time' after his meeting with the German chancellor.

While the comments above might all sound a little dramatic, it is the case that if the current conflict in the Middle East - the latest incarnation of which began on 07-Oct-2023 - does escalate to include Lebanon, Iran and potentially other countries within and outside the Middle East, then the air transport industry in that part of the world might even be dealt a fatal blow.

This report looks at what are, for now, fairly limited service suspensions by aviation operators based mainly beyond the region, and then goes on to speculate on outcomes should the situation worsen.