Europe-Africa routes heavily concentrated across a few points

A troubled past, a troubled present

Most former African colonies only received their independence in the post-war period and many not until the 1960s. The new nations bore the boundaries set during colonial rule, and many, if not most, were inconsistent with tribal and cultural ties. Additionally, infrastructure was built along colonial, rather than continental needs, resulting in few cross-border links. Aviation was, in many cases, the only practical means of transport, and even well into the late 20th century, the easiest route from west to east was via Europe.

Though rich in natural resources, much of Africa remains mired in a poverty that creates a limited market for traffic from the continent. Additionally, due to distances, large aircraft are needed, but the seating capacity of these aircraft is often far in excess of the traffic demand. As a result, frequency is spotty, competition is limited and fares are often very high.

Operational costs also tend to be very high as carriers must sometimes make sizable investments in order to bring facilities up to acceptable standards. Brussels Airlines reported that a year's preparation was required before service to Kigali could begin.

Routes Europe-West/Central Africa with more than 3000 weekly seats: 26-Sep-2011 to 02-Oct-2011

1	LHR	London Heathrow	LOS	Lagos Murtala Muhammed	10,906
2	LHR	London Heathrow	ACC	Accra Kotoka	4960
3	AMS	Amsterdam Schiphol	LOS	Lagos Murtala Muhammed	4956
4	CDG	Paris Charles De Gaulle	LOS	Lagos Murtala Muhammed	4914
5	LHR	London Heathrow	ABV	Abuja International	4910
6	AMS	Amsterdam Schiphol	ACC	Accra Kotoka	4596
7	CDG	Paris Charles De Gaulle	DKR	Dakar Yoff	4566
8	CDG	Paris Charles De Gaulle	ABJ	Abidjan Felix Houphouet Boigny	4566
9	CDG	Paris Charles De Gaulle	BKO	Bamako	3448
10	FRA	Frankfurt	LOS	Lagos Murtala Muhammed	3360
11	CDG	Paris Charles De Gaulle	DLA	Douala	3168
12	CDG	Paris Charles De Gaulle	LBV	Libreville	3162
13	FRA	Frankfurt	ABV	Abuja International	3094
14	LIS	Lisbon Lisboa	RAI	Praia Francisco Mendes	3076
15	BRU	Brussels	DKR	Dakar Yoff	3030

Source: CAPA - Centre for Aviation

Routes Europe-East Africa with more than 3000 weekly seats: 26-Sep-2011 to 02-Oct-2011

1	ORY	Paris Orly	RUN	Saint Denis de la Reunion	15,168
2	LHR	London Heathrow	NBO	Nairobi Jomo Kenyatta	13,440
3	AMS	Amsterdam Schiphol	NBO	Nairobi Jomo Kenyatta	8518
4	CDG	Paris Charles De Gaulle	MRU	Mauritius Sir Seewoosagur Ramgoolam	7674
5	CDG	Paris Charles De Gaulle	RUN	Saint Denis de la Reunion	6848
6	FRA	Frankfurt	ADD	Addis Ababa Bole	4750
7	LHR	London Heathrow	MRU	Mauritius Sir Seewoosagur Ramgoolam	4460
8	CDG	Paris Charles De Gaulle	TNR	Antananarivo	3358
9	IST	Istanbul Ataturk	NBO	Nairobi Jomo Kenyatta	3048

Source: CAPA - Centre for Aviation

Routes Europe-sub Sahara with more than 3000 weekly seats: 26-Sep-2011 to 02-Oct-2011

1	LHR	London Heathrow	JNB	Johannesburg Oliver R Tambo	20,284
2	FRA	Frankfurt	JNB	Johannesburg Oliver R Tambo	11,550
3	LIS	Lisbon Lisboa	LAD	Luanda 4 de Fevereiro	9538
4	LHR	London Heathrow	CPT	Cape Town	7588
5	CDG	Paris Charles De Gaulle	JNB	Johannesburg Oliver R Tambo	7532
6	AMS	Amsterdam Schiphol	JNB	Johannesburg Oliver R Tambo	4956
7	MUC	Munich	JNB	Johannesburg Oliver R Tambo	4186
8	AMS	Amsterdam Schiphol	CPT	Cape Town	3540
9	ZRH	Zurich	JNB	Johannesburg Oliver R Tambo	3444
10	FRA	Frankfurt	WDH	Windhoek Hosea Kutako	3336

Source: CAPA - Centre for Aviation

Only 34 Routes above 3000 weekly seats

As a result of these various factors, there are only 34 routes between Europe and all of sub-Saharan Africa that generate more than 3000 seats per week. And the selection of African endpoints is very limited.

The 10 routes to Southern Africa arrive at only four airports with 89% of the seats destined for South Africa. Gaborone, capital of Botswana, a nation of over 2 million people has 105 flights per week calling at its airport and all but a handful go to Johannesburg. Lusaka, capital of Zambia, but for three weekly flights to London, has only limited flights to other points in Africa.

In East Africa, one third of the nine flights with over 3000 weekly seats to Europe land in Nairobi with 37% of the seat offer. Lagos accounts for more than a quarter of the West/Central endpoints and 44% of all the region's seats on the list go to Nigeria.

There is certainly nothing amiss in these numbers. South Africa has the largest middle class in sub-Saharan Africa, Nairobi is the key city in East Africa and starting point for much of the region's tourism, and Lagos is the largest city of Africa's most populous nation. If anything, the numbers, compared to the populations, are amazingly small.

Alliances also thin on the ground

Only two sub-Saharan airlines currently belong to an alliance, soon to be three when Ethiopian joins Star. Of the eventual three, two - SAA, and Ethiopian - are Star members with Kenya Airways a participant in SkyTeam. British Airways' subsidiary in South Africa, Comair, provides oneworld with some connectivity as an affiliate.

Hub-to-hub links within alliances

SkyTeam	oneworld	Star
AMS-NBO	LHR-JNB	FRA-JNB
	LHR-CPT	FRA-ADD
		ZRH-JNB

In general, alliances play a minimal role in African routes, though there is discussion amongst Star members, including Egyptair and SN Brussels, to jointly establish a West African carrier that would represent the alliance in the region.

A Turkish Airlines experiment

Given the difficulties encountered in "right-sizing" equipment for African service, Turkish Airlines has ordered a fleet of B737-800s and B737-900s that will be specially configured to deal with long-thin routes, allowing Turkish Airlines to increase frequencies with aircraft more sized to the need but outfitted in a manner consistent with larger, widebody aircraft.

And again, Emirates

But the European carriers are all losing ground to Emirates, currently operating to 15 sub-Saharan and Indian Ocean points. Emirates is the only long-haul direct carrier to Durban, supplying 27,226 seats each week between Dubai and three cities in South Africa. To Nairobi, Emirates flies 11,357 seats per week, second only to London. Like India, the Gulf airlines may be reformatting travel patterns between not only Europe, but also other global points, and Africa.