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Brazil’s Gol and TAM continue domestic capacity restraint in attempt to improve yields

Analysis

Brazilian low-cost carrier Gol has revised its domestic capacity plan for 2012 to a zero growth scenario and is hinting its domestic ASKs this year could even fall after growing by 7.4% in 2011. The country's largest carrier, TAM, also plans less than 2% domestic capacity growth for 2012 after expanding its domestic ASKs by 9.5% in 2011. Both carriers are exhibiting capacity discipline in the hopes of continuing a yield recovery that began during 2H2011. But at the same time other domestic Brazilian operators, including Azul, Avianca Brazil and TRIP, continue to rapidly expand.

Gol revised its capacity forecast as it posted last week a BRL710 million (USD389 million) loss for 2011 and a negative 2.5% pre-tax margin. The losses were largely due to a 23% hike in the carrier's fuel costs, currency fluctuations and non-recurring expenses related to aircraft returns.

Gol and new Gol domestic subsidiary Webjet have begun the process of cutting 80 to 100 daily domestic flights. This represents about 8% of their current combined offering of 1100 daily flights. Gol agreed to purchase Webjet in Jul-2011 and while the acquisition has not yet been completed, 87 days of Webjet's operation were included in Gol's 2011 results.

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