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American Airlines charts a course through bankruptcy

Analysis

Last week's Chapter 11 filing by American Airlines (AA) and American Eagle (AE) parent AMR marks the end of the post-deregulation period as well as possibly signalling the beginning of the end of US legacy consolidation as many believe the shedding of American's baggage will position it for the US industry's final merger with the only other independent legacy, US Airways (LCC).

Across the board the feeling is this is the best thing for both AMR and the US industry because it means more capacity cuts. Delta and United are expected to be the principal beneficiaries. JP Morgan expects a 10% capacity cut from American, which translates to a USD1.4 billion, or 1-3% revenue jump for United, Delta Air Lines, US Airways, Alaska Airlines, Southwest and JetBlue in 2012. US Airways was already slated to benefit from the capacity cuts of competitors this quarter.

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