IATA predicts passenger numbers to double between 2016 and 2035
IATA forecasts (18-Oct-2016) air passenger numbers to double from 3.8 billion in 2016 to 7.2 billion in 2035, based on a 3.7% annual compound average growth rate. The biggest driver will be the Asia Pacific region, which is expected to be the source of more than half of the new passengers over the next 20 years. China will displace the US as the world's largest aviation market (defined by traffic to, from and within the country) around 2029. India will displace the UK for third place in 2026, while Indonesia enters the top ten, replacing Italy. The top ten fastest-growing markets in percentage terms will be in Africa: Sierra Leone, Guinea, Central African Republic, Benin, Mali, Rwanda, Togo, Uganda, Zambia and Madagascar. Details are as follows:
- Regional growth:
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- Asia Pacific: An additional 1.8 billion passengers p/a by 2035, for an overall market size of 3.1 billion. Its annual average growth rate of 4.7% will be the second-highest, behind the Middle East;
- North America: An additional 536 million passengers p/a for a total of 1.3 billion by 2035. Annual growth rate of 2.8%;
- Europe: An additional 570 million passengers for a total of 1.5 billion. Will have the slowest growth rate of 2.5%;
- Latin America: An additional 345 million passengers for a total of 658 million. Annual growth rate of 3.8%;
- Middle East: An additional 258 million passengers for a total of 414 million. The UAE, Qatar and Saudi Arabia will all enjoy strong growth of 6.3%, 4.7%, and 4.1% respectively;
- Africa: An additional 192 million passengers for a total of 303 million. Annual growth rate of 5.1%;
- Top five fastest growing markets in terms of additional passengers p/a:
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- China: 817 million new passengers for a total of 1.3 billion;
- US: 484 million new passengers for a total of 1.1 billion;
- India: 322 million new passengers for a total of 442 million;
- Indonesia: 135 million new passengers for a total of 242 million;
- Vietnam: 112 million new passengers for a total of 150 million. [more - original PR]