European airlines: growth in seats & fleet in service slows. LCCs lead
Europe's fleet of active passenger jets increased by 52% from the end of Jan-2021 to 22-Nov-2021. However, it is still 8% smaller than at the end of Jan-2020.
Europe's airlines now have 88% of their passenger jets in service, versus 84% for the world, according to the CAPA Fleet Database. The figure for Europe has increased from 52% at the end of Jan-2021, when the world average was 60%.
Out in front on this measure among Europe's leading airline groups are Ryanair and Wizz Air, each with 99% in service. Air France-KLM has 93%, easyJet 88%, Lufthansa Group 85%, and IAG just 83%.
Seat numbers for Europe have progressed from c.25% of 2019 levels in Jan/Feb-2021 to 71.6% in the week of 22-Nov-2021 (i.e. -28.4% versus 2019).
Europe remains fourth in the regional capacity recovery ranking. Below Europe are Asia Pacific, where capacity is down by 40.4%, and the Middle East, down by 31.3%. Ahead of Europe are Africa, down by 25.5%; Latin America, down by 16.3%; and North America, down by 12.3%.
Europe's airlines have made strong progress with both seat capacity and aircraft in service throughout 2021. However, momentum on both measures has slowed.
Summary
- Europe has 19.6 million seats this week, down 28% vs 27.4 million in the same week of 2019. Europe is fourth behind N. America, LatAm and Africa.
- Europe's active passenger jet fleet has increased during 2021 but is still 8% smaller than at the end of Jan-2020.
- At 22-Nov-2021, 88% of Europe's passenger jets are in service, compared with a world average of 84%, according to the CAPA Fleet Database.
- Europe's LCCs have 91% in service, versus 86% for legacy airlines.
- The ultra-LCCs Ryanair and Wizz Air each has 99% in service.
Europe has 19.6 million seats vs 27.4 million in 2019, down 28%
In the week commencing 22-Nov-2021, total European seat capacity is scheduled to be 19.6 million, according to OAG schedules and CAPA seat configurations.
This is 28.4% below the 27.4 million seats of the equivalent week of 2019; this is 0.3ppts worse than last week's -28.1% and down from -24.6% four weeks ago.
However, it is still Europe's fifth best week measured by capacity as a percentage of 2019 capacity levels since before the COVID-19 crisis.
This week's total seat capacity for Europe is split between 6.1 million domestic seats, versus 7.3 million in the equivalent week of 2019; and 13.5 million international seats, versus 20.1 million.
Europe's domestic seats are down by 15.8% versus 2019, compared with last week's -15.1%.
International seat capacity is down by 32.9% versus 2019. This compares with last week's -32.8%.
Europe: percentage change in weekly airline seat capacity vs equivalent week of 2019, weeks of 06-Jan-2020 to 22-Nov-2021
Europe remains fourth among world regions by capacity as percentage of 2019
Europe remains in fourth place in the ranking of regions measured by seats as a percentage of 2019 levels.
Asia Pacific is stuck at the bottom as the worst-performing region, with capacity down by 40.4% versus 2019 this week (week commencing 22-Nov-2021).
Next worst is the Middle East, where seat count is down by 31.3%. Africa's seat count is down by 25.5%, yet still above Europe's.
Latin America's capacity is down by 16.3% and North America is down by 12.3% – the closest any region has been to 2019 levels since before the pandemic.
Asia Pacific, Middle East and North America have taken upward steps in the trend this week, whereas Africa has taken a small downward step.
Europe and Latin America are broadly flat on last week.
Percentage change in passenger seat capacity vs 2019 by region, week of 30-Mar-2020 to week of 22-Nov-2021
Europe's 4Q2021 capacity is now projected to be 71% of 2019 levels
According to data from OAG and CAPA, Europe's capacity as a percentage of 2019 levels has improved with each successive quarter of 2021. It was 28% in 1Q2021, 34% in 2Q2021, and 64% for 3Q2021.
Schedules filed for 4Q2021 appear to be stabilising at 71% of 4Q2019 levels, a further upward step relative to 3Q2021.
Europe's active passenger jet fleet has increased during 2021
According to the CAPA Fleet Database, the number of passenger jets in service with Europe's airlines at 22-Nov-2021 is 5239.
This is 52.3% more than at the end of Jan-2021 and the highest number since before the coronavirus pandemic. However, it is still 8.2% below the pre-crisis figure of 5708 at the end of Jan-2020.
…and is above the world average as a percentage of total fleet
As a percentage of the total number of passenger jets, the share of Europe's fleet that is in service has outperformed against the world average since Jul-2021 – after underperforming from the start of the crisis until then.
As at 22-Nov-2021, 88% of Europe's passenger jets are in service, compared with a world average of 84%.
Before the pandemic, at the end of Jan-2020, Europe and the world had 92% of their passenger jets in service.
In Europe this fell to 19% at the end of Apr-2020, compared with a global average of 39%. At the end of Jan-2021 the figures were 58% for Europe and 71% for the world.
Europe's recovery through 2021 has been sharper than the world average on this metric.
Percentage of passenger jets* in service at month end, Jan-2020 to Nov-2021**
Europe's LCCs have a higher percentage of jets in service than the legacy airlines
At 22-Nov-2021, 91% of LCC passenger jets are in service, which is higher than the Europe-wide average of 88%. For legacy airlines the figure is 86%, according to data from the CAPA Fleet Database.
For both, the share of jets in service is at the highest level since the crisis began, but 5ppts below their levels at the end of Jan-2020, before the pandemic crisis.
LCCs cut back more heavily in the first lockdown at the end of Apr-2020, to just 10% (versus 23% for legacies), but they recovered to 77% (66% for legacies) at the end of Aug-2020.
LCCs then cut back to 52% at the end of Jan-2021, versus 60% for legacy airlines at that time.
Europe: percentage of passenger jets* in service at month end, Jan-2020 to Nov-2021**
Ryanair and Wizz Air each has 99% of its fleet in service
Europe's eight largest airline groups by total fleet (and by seats) are Lufthansa Group, IAG, Air France-KLM, Ryanair Group, Aeroflot Group, Turkish Airlines Group, easyJet and Wizz Air.
Ranking them by the percentage of their fleet in service at 22-Nov-2021, Ryanair and Wizz Air lead the rest, each with 99%.
Aeroflot Group (96%) and Turkish Airlines (95%) come next, helped by the large domestic markets in Russia and Turkey.
Air France-KLM has 93%, Lufthansa Group 85%, and IAG just 83%
Among the big three Western European legacy groups, Air France-KLM has the highest percentage of its fleet in service, with 93% (this would be 92% without the 100% of the group's LCC subsidiary Transavia's fleet in service).
Lufthansa Group has only 85% (similar across its Eurowings and network airlines), and IAG has just 83% (82% without its LCC subsidiary Vueling's 87%).
The LCC easyJet, with 88% of its fleet in service, is more closely matched on this metric with the legacy airline groups than with the ultra-LCCs Ryanair and Wizz Air.
Europe's leading airline groups ranked by percentage of aircraft in service at 22-Nov-2021
|
|
In service |
Inactive |
Percentage in service |
|---|---|---|---|
|
Ryanair Group |
448 |
3 |
99% |
|
141 |
2 |
99% |
|
|
362 |
16 |
96% |
|
|
389 |
19 |
95% |
|
|
497 |
35 |
93% |
|
|
easyJet Group |
282 |
40 |
88% |
|
629 |
101 |
86% |
|
|
509 |
104 |
83% |
Europe's airlines have made strong progress in 2021, but the momentum has slowed
Europe's airlines have made strong progress with both seat capacity as a percentage of 2019 levels and aircraft in service as a percentage of the total throughout 2021.
However, momentum on both measures has weakened since the strong increases of early/mid summer 2021.
In general, LCCs have cut back more when the crisis has been most severe and increased the percentage of aircraft in service more aggressively when it has receded.
More specifically, Ryanair and Wizz Air have consistently been most aggressive in returning capacity to the market when travel restrictions have eased.