Global freight outlook: declines punctuated by Cathay Pacific's volume falling below 2009 levels

The outlook for freight volume - and implications for passenger traffic - continues to worsen as Cathay Pacific, the world's largest international freight operator, reported its Sep-2011 freight volume declined 10.1% year-on-year, even dipping below 2009 levels for the first time. Cathay worriedly foreshadowed continued weakness in the sector for the remainder of the year and into 2012 - a sentiment echoed by leading cargo carriers China Airlines, EVA, FedEx, Korean Air and Lufthansa, as this global freight outlook surveys. So far DHL is alone in being a major freight carrier not to forecast any downturn.

Based on traffic trends in recent months, and comments from the world's largest freight operators and global airline and airport associations, it appears there is a growing likelihood of a protracted period of slow or negative year-on-year freight growth in the months ahead, even with the approach to the peak pre-Christmas season.