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EVA Air order for 787s/777s to fuel long haul growth, but no Chinese transfer traffic for now

Analysis

Mainland China is the market fuelling Asia's long haul growth - except in Taiwan. Boeing on 15-Oct-2015 confirmed EVA Air's intent to purchase 26 Boeing widebodies (24 787-10s and two 777-300ERs) in addition to an existing 13 777-300ERs on order, bringing its passenger Boeing widebody backlog to 39 with a further six from Airbus. EVA has the sixth-largest passenger widebody backlog in Asia. EVA's long haul network is mostly comprised of 21 777-300ERs, which it has used to quietly grow to North America, bolstering its Taipei Taoyuan hub. EVA in 2015 is the ninth largest trans-Pacific carrier based on flights, but fourth fastest growing.

EVA's growth is slightly ahead of the average of all airlines in the trans-Pacific market. This is more important than it seems: EVA has been unable to tap the mainland China-North America transfer market owing to complex government restrictions. In comparison, all of its major competitors - including the three airlines with higher growth rates: ANA, Air China and Cathay Pacific - owe much of their growth to the China market. It was expected that Taipei by the end of the year would be open to mainland China transfer traffic, currently prohibited. These hopes were dashed on 14-Oct-2015 when Beijing and Taipei failed to reach an agreement. EVA, and competitor China Airlines, continue to sit on remarkable if uncertain potential of making Taipei a mainland China-North America transfer hub.

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