Europe's 737 MAX aircraft: Ryanair has most to lose if Boeing ails dent wider MAX brand
The most recent 737 MAX problem relates to a specific configuration of the MAX-9, where there is a mid cabin door plug to block an exit that is not needed.
Airlines in Europe currently operate just 11 MAX-9s (only 5% of the global fleet): five with Turkish Airlines, four with Icelandair and two with Corendon Dutch Airlines. None have the configuration involving the door plug that has been grounded elsewhere.
However, Boeing's entire MAX-9 production line has come under increased scrutiny from politicians, regulators and airline customers and the potential for reputational damage right across the MAX family remains a risk both for Boeing and for operators of the aircraft range.
Europe's biggest airline by passenger numbers, Ryanair Group, has no MAX-9s but has been critical of Boeing's quality control in recent times. With more MAX aircraft in service and on order than any other European airline group, Ryanair cannot afford for Boeing to have any more slip-ups on any MAX variant.
- In Jan-2024 Europe's Boeing narrowbody fleet remains similar in size to 2019, while the (larger) Airbus narrowbody fleet has grown by 11%.
- 18% of Boeing narrowbodies in Europe are MAX aircraft, up from 10% in 2019. The MAX-8 and MAX-8200 dominate Europe's MAX fleet today.
- 64% of MAX orders are for the MAX-8, 25% for the MAX-10.
- Ryanair Group has almost half of Europe's MAX fleet and Europe's highest number of MAX orders (MAX-8200s and MAX-10s).
- Ryanair sees no read-across from the MAX-9 problems to its fleet, but the risk of wider MAX brand damage remains.
Europe's Boeing narrowbody fleet is similar in size to 2019…
Boeing's current troubles will not help it to catch up with Airbus on narrowbody numbers in service in Europe.
As of 8-Jan-2024, Europe's fleet of all 737 types in service totals 1,704 aircraft. This comprises 1,322 Next Generation aircraft, 308 MAX aircraft and 74 Classics.
This fleet in service is 3% higher than the total of 1,660 aircraft at the end of Jan-2019, but more or less unchanged from the total of 1,700 of Jul-2019.
The total plummeted during the COVID-19 crisis and has now broadly recovered (although it had been as high as 1,739 in Sep-2018).
…while the (larger) Airbus narrowbody fleet has grown by 11%
By comparison, Europe's fleet of Airbus narrowbodies in service is 50% bigger than its Boeing fleet, totalling 2,562 at 8-Jan-2024. The Airbus fleet has grown by 11% compared with Jan-2019.
Europe: narrowbodies in service by manufacturer, Jan-2017 to Jan-2024
18% of Boeing narrowbodies in Europe are MAX aircraft, up from 10% in 2019
The 308 MAX aircraft in service represents 18% of Europe's Boeing narrowbodies in service. This share has grown from 10% in Jan-2019.
Europe: Boeing narrowbodies in service by type series, Jan-2017 to Jan-2024
The MAX-8 and MAX-8200 dominate Europe's MAX fleet
The fleet of 737 MAX aircraft in service in Europe primarily comprises the MAX-8, of which there are 159 at 8-Jan-2024, and the MAX-8200, of which there are 138 (all with Ryanair Group).
The balance consists of the 11 MAX-9s previously noted, making up just under 4% of the MAX fleet in Europe.
Europe: Boeing MAX narrowbodies in service by type, Jan-2017 to Jan-2024
Ryanair Group has almost half of Europe's MAX fleet
Ryanair Group is Europe's biggest operator of MAX aircraft, with 138 in service (all MAX-8200s). This represents 47% of the total, much more than any other airline group.
TUI Group is second, with 37 aircraft (all MAX-8s), or 12% of the total. It is just ahead of Turkish Airlines Group's 34 MAX aircraft in service (29 MAX-8s and five MAX-9s), or 11% of the total.
Norwegian Group has 20 (all MAX-8s), while Icelandair completes the top five with 18 (14 MAX-8s and four MAX-9s).
The top 10 groups in Europe by MAX aircraft in service are illustrated in the chart below.
Boeing 737MAX: top 10 airline groups by aircraft in service in Europe, 8-Jan-2024
64% of MAX orders are for the MAX-8, 25% for the MAX-10
Europe has 959 Boeing 737s on firm order at 8-Jan-2024, all for variants of the MAX family. Indeed, there has not been an outstanding 737 order for any types other than MAX aircraft since Dec-2019.
The largest number, 616 of them, or 64% of the firm orders, are for the MAX-8. The MAX-10 accounts for 238 orders, 25% of the total.
There are 97 orders in Europe for the MAX-8200, six for the MAX-7 and just two for the MAX-9 (one for lessor Aercap and one for Corendon Dutch Airlines).
Ryanair has Europe's highest number of MAX orders
Ryanair Group has the highest number of firm orders for 737 MAX aircraft in Europe at 8-Jan-2024, with a total of 222, of which 72 are for the MAX-8200 and 150 for the MAX-10. It has a further 175 options, of which 25 are for the MAX-8200 and 150 for the MAX-10.
The next three biggest orders for MAX aircraft in Europe are for lessors Avolon (111 orders), SMBC (82) and Aercap (67). Then come Norwegian, IAG, SunExpress, TUI Group, Lufthansa Group and Turkish Airlines Group.
For details of the top 10 orders in Europe, see the chart below.
Boeing 737MAX: top 10 groups by firm orders in Europe, 8-Jan-2024
Ryanair sees no read-across from the MAX-9 problems to its fleet
Ryanair's future is closely linked to the success of Boeing's MAX programme, albeit not to the currently troubled MAX-9.
The LCC group is currently treading a line between criticising Boeing for is production problems and sounding relaxed that the problems do not affect its fleet.
Ryanair Group CEO Michael O'Leary told Reuters on 11-Jan-2024 that, while Boeing had made "tremendous strides", it has "more to do on the quality control side".
Nevertheless, he sees no read-across from the MAX-9 problems to the MAX-8200 operated by Ryanair, nor the MAX-10 ordered by the group (although, while he is certain the MAX-10 will be certified, he cannot be certain this will happen before the end of 2024).
Mr O'Leary indicated that Ryanair had not seen signs of wariness from customers regarding the MAX-8200s it currently operates. "We see no indication of any passenger concern," he said.
…but the risk of wider MAX brand damage remains
Meanwhile, MAX-9s are still grounded for ongoing safety inspections in the US, Boeing is scrutinising production processes at major supplier Spirit AeroSystems and both Boeing and Spirit are opening their facilities to airlines to inspect. Ryanair is to send additional engineers to Boeing in Seattle and Spirit in Wichita to oversee quality checks on aircraft it has ordered.
US Senators have questioned both Boeing's quality control and the Federal Aviation Administration's (FAA) effectiveness in overseeing the manufacturer's production processes.
References by the FAA to "additional discrepancies" in other MAX-9 aircraft beyond the door plug problem do not inspire confidence and the US regulator is auditing Boeing's production line for the type.
Ryanair is one of Boeing's biggest customers and, while it expects further delays to its planned delivery schedule, the ultra LCC remains committed to the manufacturer.
However, unless and until the current period of intense scrutiny passes without further concerns arising, the risk of damage to the wider 737 MAX brand remains real.