European airline capacity planning: uncertainty is increasing

The UK's reimposition of quarantine rules on arrivals from Belgium, Andorra and the Bahamas, not long after similar action on Spain, is another reminder of the uncertainties facing airline capacity planners. COVID-19 cases are also increasing elsewhere.

After 10 straight week-on-week increases, European capacity has moved from 14% of 2019 levels, the lowest of any region 10 weeks ago, to 45% this week (commencing 10-Aug-2020), now the third highest.

The year-on-year reduction of -55.0% is now almost level with North America's -53.4%, while Asia Pacific remains in the lead with capacity cut by 42.9% (still the only region at more than 50% of 2019 levels). Latin America has the deepest cut, -74.1%, followed by Africa's -67.6% and the Middle East's -67.3%.

However, the capacity curve in Europe (and most of the other world regions) is showing signs of levelling out, influenced by the uncertainty over travel restrictions. Moreover, capacity plans for the rest of 2020 from leading European airline groups in their recent quarterly reports are more cautious than the schedules they are still filing with OAG.