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Analysis Reports
We employ a global team of highly-experienced analysts who deliver a wealth of commentary about the aviation and travel industry. Our analysts don’t just report the news, they look at the big picture to help you understand how the latest news, issues and trends will affect your business. CAPA’s commitment to independence and integrity means every report is filled with accurate data and actionable insights to help you stay ahead of the game.
Now that Spirit Airlines appears to have rebuffed Frontier Airlines' overtures once and for all, the ultra-low cost landscape in the US is showing more clarity - at least, in the short term.
Two of the country's more niche ultra-low cost airlines - Sun Country and Allegiant Air - appear to have favourable prospects for this year as US market conditions remain benign, and each airline executes on its respective strategies.
Neither Sun Country's, nor Allegiant's, model lends itself to consolidation, and each airline believes that M&A is not necessary for those companies to thrive in the market.
Doncaster-Sheffield Airport (UK) – a blueprint to reopen an ex-private sector airport as a PPP?
Doncaster-Sheffield Airport, a brownfield conversion of an existing military airfield, opened in 2005.
Its prospects were scorned by many industry analysts, mainly on account of local opposition, but it did surprisingly well, eventually reaching almost 1.5 mppa in 2019.
But the COVID-19 pandemic, followed by the withdrawal of LCC Wizz Air, did for it - Doncaster-Sheffield closed in 2022.
Immediately, local councils began planning to reopen it using public money (it had previously been owned and operated by Peel Airports).
Now, a deal has been done, which is awaiting final clearance at the end of Feb-2025, to lease the land for 125 years from Peel and to reopen the airport as a public facility, aided by two strategic partners, one of which is Munich Airport International, the German airport's external operation and investment wing.
There is confidence in the region that Doncaster-Sheffield can be made to work second time around, but it faces many challenges - they are outlined in this report, along with a résumé of how it got to this position in the first place.
Virgin Australia faces inflexion point as it awaits partnership ruling and ponders CEO choice
Virgin Australia is in a state of regulatory and leadership limbo, with key decisions looming that will shape the next phase of the airline's development.
One of the changes in the works for Virgin Australia is its proposed partnership with Qatar Airways, which represents a major piece in the airline's ongoing efforts to reshape its post-restructuring business.
The market, fleet and network implications of this enhanced partnership were discussed in this CAPA - Centre for Aviation analysis in Oct-2024, after the deal was announced.
Since then, the ball has largely been in the regulators' court. Multiple Australian authorities and government branches are weighing in on the complex proposed arrangement between Qatar Airways and Virgin Australia.
While there is still some way to go on this front, positive signs for the airlines have emerged recently.
Meanwhile, Virgin Australia has been considering options for replacing CEO Jayne Hrdlicka when she steps down. However, this process has been complicated by political and union involvement.
On 6-Feb-2025 the long haul LCC Norse Atlantic Airways announced an agreement to provide one wet lease aircraft to Indigo, the largest airline in India, on long haul routes from Mar-2025.
The six-month contract is extendable up to 18 months, and the two airlines are considering further collaboration, including the supply of additional aircraft.
This is an important milestone in Norse's strategic shift to place greater emphasis on third party flying, while reducing the importance of its scheduled network.
According to CAPA - Centre for Aviation/OAG, Norse Atlantic is scheduled to operate eight routes (from Oslo, Paris CDG, Rome FCO and Athens) in summer 2025, while its subsidiary Norse Atlantic UK will fly four routes (from London Gatwick).
Across the group, the network will be one route smaller than in northern summer 2024. This suggests a lack of profitable expansion opportunities for its own operations.
ACMI expansion could turn its surplus capacity into an advantage at a time when its fleet of young Boeing 787 widebodies are just what many growth airlines are seeking.
Airports: Thailand to create a national logistics ‘hub’ – more likely focused on the Bangkok area
Thailand - and Bangkok especially - is in tough competition for international air passenger traffic in Southeast Asia, with highly established airports and others where there is a large amount of investment and infrastructure investment ongoing to ensure that they are also in the race for regional dominance.
Airports of Thailand (AoT) has already set out its stall with heavy investments at the two Bangkok airports that it controls, as well as new or 'almost new' refurbished airports across the provinces, and especially in tourist areas.
But that international competition demands innovation, and the way the Transport Ministry has chosen to do that is by laying out a pathway towards coordinated development of air, surface and marine transport, the latter including both commercial shipping and leisure cruises.
Although it is a national scheme to cement the notion of Thailand as a logistics hub, the reality (as CAPA - Centre for Aviation sees it) is that the main thrust, at least to begin with, will be in building up a smaller focused hub between Bangkok and Utapao-Rayong-Pattaya. One that will embrace the two AoT Bangkok airports, a major container and growing cruise port at Laem Chabang, the long established tourist resort at Pattaya and the small and (slowly post-pandemic recovering) airport at Utapao, which with a 3,500m x 60m runway is suitable for long haul charter operations.
All of those places will eventually be connected by one of five high speed rail lines planned for Thailand, at a length of 200km (125 miles), but probably not for another decade yet, unless this scheme speeds up its implementation.
Although major changes could be afoot in Brazil, at this point the country's leading airline LATAM Airlines Brazil seems unfazed about plans by its rivals Azul and GOL to merge.
LATAM's composure is driven in part by yet-to-be-determined concessions that Azul and GOL will agree to, in order to gain regulatory approval for their proposed tie-up, which could potentially provide opportunities for LATAM.
Another reason for LATAM's calm reaction is the work that the company completed during its time in bankruptcy to solidify its stature as the leading airline group in the region - a jump-start that could prove beneficial, because dynamics in Brazil could shift.
However, it's tough not to believe that some internal planning is occurring to combat the competitive advantages that a combined Azul and GOL could achieve.
The aviation industry in Africa presents both significant opportunities and challenges, with the potential for remarkable growth driven by economic development, rising demand for air travel, and the need for better connectivity across the continent.
In this report, we will examine the current state of aviation in Africa, identify the strongest and weakest markets, and explore opportunities for development using GDP and economic growth data.
The Cayman Islands, nestled in the Caribbean Sea and still a British Overseas Territory, are best known as a tax-free financial centre and as a vacation idyll for the financially well endowed.
But with a short runway, incapable of handling a fully laden long haul jet, the Caymans cannot reach their full touristic potential.
A long-established master plan that would see the runway extended and a new terminal built looks as if it will come to fruition during the next few years, enabling long haul flights to land and take off with full loads.
Currently the vast majority of visitors come from North America.
But with those new tourists from Europe, and possibly Latin America, would come demands for a more budget-oriented infrastructure that does not exist presently, but which is found in Jamaica and the Dominican Republic, for example.
The other matter to consider is whether now is the time to revisit the prospect of privatisation.
The halfway house that is the public-private partnership (PPP) seems to fit the demands of the Caribbean airport environment quite well, and there are examples of that not too far away.
IndiGo is primed for higher growth this year, as groundings diminish and long haul plans beckon
IndiGo has done an impressive job of maintaining its international growth, despite a daunting number of narrowbody groundings, and it is now looking to boost its overseas expansion by accelerating plans to introduce new widebody types.
The airline has been one of the hardest hit by the Pratt & Whitney engine issues that have caused a maintenance backlog and a chronic shortage of engines for many operators of Airbus A320neo-family aircraft.
IndiGo has still managed to increase its international capacity, however, with new deliveries and additional leased aircraft more than offsetting the groundings. Now, the number of grounded aircraft is steadily decreasing, raising the prospect of an even higher growth rate.
International expansion is a priority for IndiGo, and the next stage will involve adding more long-range aircraft.
The airline has signalled the importance of this step by attempting to bring in widebodies sooner than planned, via wet leases, as it eyes the India-Europe market.
Vietnam aviation update: part two – Vietnam Airlines fleet plans, and airport developments
Vietnam's aviation sector is primed for significant growth, with large orders either pending or in place for the two major airlines, and major airport development projects under way.
Part one of this update focused on overall market dynamics in Vietnam, and LCC Vietjet. This second part will examine Vietnam Airlines, airline growth challenges, and the status of the country's airport infrastructure programs.