Analysis Reports

Citilink will become the twelfth Asia Pacific LCC operating widebody aircraft in 4Q2019 as it takes delivery of two A330-900neos. The Garuda Indonesia subsidiary is slated to become only the fourth LCC to serve the Southeast Asia-Europe market as it launches services from Jakarta to Frankfurt.

There are now more than 80 widebodies operated by Asia Pacific LCCs, but only a small fraction is used on long haul routes of more than nine hours. Almost all of Asia’s widebody LCC fleet is used on medium haul services of four to nine hours within Asia Pacific.

Inevitably, Asia’s LCCs will launch more long haul services. However, the focus will remain primarily on the short and medium haul routes within Asia Pacific, including six- to eight-hour routes that in future will be able to be operated with new generation narrowbody aircraft as well as widebodies. 

Europe and North America will remain relatively unattractive due to intense competition from full service airlines, although there will be some niche opportunities in these markets for Asian LCCs.

American Airlines announced on 8-Aug-2019 that it plans to launch three new routes from Chicago to destinations in Central Europe in summer 2020. Operated by 226 seat Boeing 787-8 aircraft, the new routes will serve Krakow and Prague five times weekly and Budapest four times weekly from May-2020 to Oct-2020.

This will add 14 weekly frequencies to a market that has only 85 frequencies this summer, based on OAG data for the week of 12-Aug-2019 on routes between the US and Central Europe (excluding Turkey, Greece, Cyprus and CIS).

There are currently just five airlines operating in this market. LOT Polish is the market leader by seats, and Air Serbia is the only other operator based at from the European end.

At the US end, all three of Delta, American and United are present since United's launch of New York Newark-Prague in Jun-2019. Delta has been present the longest, but American has grown most aggressively since its summer 2018 entry.

American's three new routes for summer 2020 will not add a new operator, but if all other capacity remains unchanged they will add 15% more capacity to the US-Central Europe market.

Panama’s Copa Holdings is one of many Boeing 737 MAX operators worldwide navigating the grounding of the aircraft, and has stated that it assumes the aircraft will not resume service until mid Dec-2019 at the earliest. 

Similarly to other MAX operators, Copa is battling cost and revenue headwinds due to the grounding after being forced to deploy less efficient aircraft on routes previously operated by the MAX. The company is joining a chorus of operators outlining the costs and revenue challenges that they continue to face as the aircraft type remains inoperable. There is little doubt that the airline, and others, are preparing to have frank conversations with the airframer about proper compensation for the unexpected operational disruptions. 

Copa's operating environment remains relatively stable, and despite the challenges that the airline continues to face as its MAX jets remain grounded and deliveries of additional aircraft remain uncertain, the company has upped it 2019 margin guidance. 

Southwest Airlines made its highly anticipated and long awaited entry into the Hawaiian market in Mar-2019, but its expansion to Hawaii was curtailed by the grounding of the Boeing 737 MAX.

Despite a slower than expected roll-out of its service to the Hawaiian Islands, Southwest’s entry has still created headwinds in the market as the extra capacity continues to pressure fares. Now Southwest plans to move ahead with the addition of more routes to Hawaii, which means that existing operators will continue to feel pressure from that additional capacity in the market.

Hawaiian Airlines is bearing the brunt of Southwest’s expansion from the mainland to Hawaii and in inter-island markets. And that pressure shows no signs of abating for the foreseeable future. 

Anchorage Airport, the furthest west of all the U.S.’s major airports other than Honolulu, serves an isolated community that is in the fourth least populous state, with only close to 740,000 residents.

But while a big part of the facility's job is to ensure that the remotest communities there are connected to the state capital, and thereby to the rest of the world, Ted Stevens International Airport has for decades filled an entirely different role on the global stage as an east-west, Americas-Asia, hub; one of its primary functions in the time when aircraft simply could not fly nonstop between origin and destination.

That role has reduced hugely since aircraft began to acquire much longer range, but the airport has remained an essential element of the cargo aircraft network because those planes often have shorter operating range.

Now one of the world’s leading cargo and logistics companies is predicting a growing e-commerce role for Anchorage.

The outlook for Latin American airlines appears mixed for the remainder of 2019 as some of the region’s largest markets face weakening economies just as airline capacity begins to climb. Overall, the IMF is forecasting tepid economic growth for Latin America and the Caribbean in 2019 ahead of a rebound in 2020. 

Some of the largest airlines operating in two of Latin America’s largest aviation markets – Brazil and Mexico – are expressing concern about capacity growth. The airlines growing in those countries have stated the counterargument that their capacity increases are warranted and the growth is largely targeted towards uncontested markets.

For now, those airlines believe their respective rationales for capacity expansion remain sound, and they are not likely to backpedal on their growth. 

In the run-up to the 2016 Presidential election in 2016 President-to-be Trump referred to some U.S. airports as being of ‘Third World’ standard.

Since then, two attempts – one of them current – have been made to inject infrastructure funds into U.S. airports while, separately, legislation has been enacted to make airport privatisation easier.

One area where there had been no movement was the passenger facility charge (PFC) – the fee that airline passengers in the U.S pay in their ticket price that goes toward the upkeep and maintenance of airports, and which is set up and capped according to US federal law.

At last a bill has been introduced to reduce the cap on those charges.

Sustainability and environmental responsibility are clearly mainstays in the global aviation industry and many airports worldwide are making changes to reduce their environmental footprint, anticipating the added benefit of reducing costs. 

Solar panels are becoming more commonplace at airports and in the US, Chattanooga airport has reached a major milestone in becoming the first airport in the country to run completely on renewable energy from solar panels.

This is a significant development, and Chattanooga seems to have addressed some of the unique challenges that airports face as they evaluate adding or expanding their use of solar panels, including the issue of glint and glare problems for pilots. 

It could be some time before other airports in the US follow Chattanooga’s lead as airports located in larger metro areas may face space constraints in installing enough solar panels to replace the use of electricity completely.

But Chattanooga could offer lessons to other airports, which will increasingly become included in renewable energy schemes adopted by their respective municipalities. 

‘Part of the Union’ with its refrain “You don’t get me I’m part of the union”, is a famous 1970's song (by the British band Strawbs).

Penned during a period of intense industrial rest in the UK, it was interpreted as a pro-union song when in fact it was a sarcastic put-down. Such is the level of trade union-led strikes in the airline and air traffic control sectors at the moment that it is surprising that the song has not resurfaced as a contemporary anthem.

But what of the airport sector? How does that compare with the airlines and ATC for industrial unrest?

It appears that a comparative lack of organisation, with many different roles being represented by multiple unions, means that bargaining and, when required, strike action are less coordinated. When different unions do choose to work together though and choose to withdraw labour, the impact on the travelling public can be every bit as problematic as action by pilots, cabin crew and air traffic controllers.

Airport unions are especially dismayed by concession agreements, but they sometimes engage in the most unlikely campaigns.

Finnair launched Helsinki to Los Angeles at the start of summer 2019 and will add Beijing Daxing to its Beijing Capital service this winter, when Guangzhou will become a year-round destination. The airline also plans to launch a service to Busan in South Korea in summer 2020.

These route additions underline that the focus of the airline's long haul network remains North East Asia, building on its connecting strategy between there and Europe via its Helsinki hub. In addition, its US network is growing, albeit from a small base, and this is giving some additional impetus to its east-west transfer flows.

Finnair's expansive mood is coming at a time when it admits that there is a slowdown in its key markets. Its 1H2019 financial results statement indicated that its FY2019 operating margin is likely to fall below its target of 6.0%, since revenue is expected to grow at a slower rate than capacity growth.

This report considers Finnair's strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats.