Reykjavik's new airport – inertia, geography, geology, safety, train tracks, and elves on the line

Iceland examines again its need for a new domestic Reykjavik airport

Once again Iceland is hand-wringing about what to do with its two airports serving the capital (Reykjavik) region.

Should it leave them as they are; merge them; or build a new one? And if so, what and where?

Reykjavik isn't unique, but it is unusual in having its - and the country's - principal international airport situated 50km (31 miles) from the capital, along (and this part is unique) a bleak windswept road.

A road battered by North Atlantic winds through an ancient, but once again active, lava field, which has so far erupted six times in two years, wiping out large parts of a fishing town, Grindavik, which lies only 15 km from the boundary of Keflavik International Airport (KEF).

For those struggling to reach the airport for early morning departures or to meet overnight flights from North America, it can seem like the journey to Hell.

And that is as far out as many of the secondary level airports that began to appear in Europe during the 2000s, popularised by the low cost carriers and led by Ryanair.

Indeed, the airport is one of the furthest primary airports from the city it serves on the continent. (Bearing in mind that Iceland is technically in two continents, the other being North America).

Lonely without you

As if to compound KEF's loneliness, Iceland's most important airport, with only the nearby small town of Keflavik, home to a redundant US Naval base and an ever-growing jungle of commercial units stretched out along the A41 road for company.

The Reykjavik domestic airport (RVK) is, by comparison, easily walk-able from the city's trendy downtown 101 Reykjavik district and lies so close to the centre that the turboprop aircraft that use it have to navigate the 75m (245ft) tall spire of the Hallgrimskirkja (the church that is Reykjavik's, and Iceland's, second tallest building).

Location of the Hallgrimskirkja and RVK, Iceland

Source: Google Maps.

The existing domestic airport is perfectly positioned to satisfy its demands, except for safety concerns

RVK is in a perfect position for the provincial visitors who fly into it from far-flung coastal towns to do business with the national and international offices there.

There is no other way, apart from going all the way around the national ring road, which until fairly recently wasn't even entirely paved. Getting through the desolate uninhabited interior requires not only Himalayan style preparation, but Icelandic government permission.

And apart from a handful of short mining/industrial lines, Iceland has never had a rail system, including one to KEF, although that possibility (a 'high-speed' one) has been discussed frequently in recent years.

The problem with RVK is that it is ageing, and not getting the TLC it needs. CAPA - Centre for Aviation is not aware of any construction work taking place there currently, while two and a quarter billion US dollars will be ploughed into KEF by 2040.

The writing appears on the wall.

Directing all traffic into KEF isn't the answer

Various projections have been advanced about what to do next.

One of them has all commercial air traffic, domestic and international, being directed into KEF. But that would mean KEF's development plans being brought forward dramatically.

At present there are 1,061 movements weekly at KEF, and 148 at RVK. While RVK's total is only a little over 10% of that of KEF, adding the two together would mean insufficient gate space at the latter, especially as domestic turboprop aircraft typically hang around longer on the apron, and more remote parking. There is no mass demand between Bildudalur or Grimsey airports and the capital.

Airports in Iceland

Source: CAPA - Centre for Aviation and OAG.

And no one in their right mind wants to try to board or disembark from an aircraft from the apron at KEF in a storm.

Reykjavik dominates the country economically

Then there is the commercial outlook to contend with.

Most people using domestic air services in Iceland just want to go to Reykjavik to complete their business, or visit relatives who have moved there consistently since the Second World War stimulated what had hitherto been not much more than a subsistence economy - not to fly onwards internationally (or vice versa).

When Icelandair trialled domestic services into KEF several years ago there were few passengers, and the services were quickly withdrawn.

The Greater Reykjavik population is 230,000, over 60% of that of the entire country, and it dominates it.

So there is, without doubt, a case for a new domestic airport, but in order to satisfy the residents' demands it needs to be close to the centre of the action - and there is not a great deal of space left in what has become a heavily urbanised city-region; other than a little on the Alftanes peninsula to the southwest of the capital which is reasonably flat, but also the official residence of the Icelandic president.

It would, at least, be handy for the upmarket Garðabær area, home to many of Iceland's top earners, which is situated close by.

The selected location lies outside Reykjavik on the A41 road to Keflavik

The location that has been selected for it, at least at the feasibility stage, is in the Hvassahraun area.

The idea is that the additional resources needed to run the new airport would come from RVK, which would be closed. That land could then be redeveloped and, being close to Reykjavik centre, would have considerable value for housing and/or commercial purposes.

Hvassahraun is situated along the A41 road, some 10 km from the port town of Hafnarfjörður, which itself is the southernmost of Greater Reykjavik, and 20 km from Reykjavik downtown.

It is also less than four kilometres from the Rio Tinto Aluminium Smelting works at Straumsvik, which is just about the only heavy industry in the country.

The location is marked in red on the map below, which also embraces Reykjavik at the eastern end and Keflavik and its airport at the western end.

Also, just off the map, below the thin yellow line (road) close to the most westerly '41' road indicator, is the location of the volcanic eruption referred to earlier.

Proposed domestic airport at Hvassahraun, Iceland - location

Source: Google Maps.

The whole of this area could erupt at any time - as it has many times in the past.

So why choose it?

On the fringe of potential volcanic activity…

Iceland's Ministry of Infrastructure recently reviewed a feasibility report on the construction of a new domestic airport in the Hvassahraun area.

The report concluded: "Weather wise, there is nothing to prevent the continuation of preparations for the construction of an airport in Hvassahraun that would serve teaching, training and private flights, domestic flights[,] and as an alternat[iv]e airport for international flights".

"It cannot be ruled out that the airport will be affected by a lava flow, but the probability is considered extremely low. Further research and flight tests are expected to be carried out to determine if the region is suitable for the development of a new airport."

The proposed airport development would require an investment of approximately ISK22 billion (EUR148.15 million).

At least the potential for volcanic activity has been acknowledged - but the eruptions on the Reykjanes peninsular (described earlier) during the past two years had been considered "low" on the scale of possibilities as well.

…but ironically, safety could be a big reason behind its selection

The comment about "an alternative airport for international flights" also merits investigation, and begs the question: why put an alternative (diversion) airport for KEF so close by (20 km)?

Is it not the case that the two would have very similar meteorological systems, so that if KEF was closed for adverse weather, so would one at Hvassahraun?

In fact, closures at KEF for weather are very rare. Pilots of Icelandair and Play, the two main airlines, with 84% of movements there between them, are particularly skilled at landing in very poor conditions. Foreign airline crews might not be quite as up to speed.

The main diversion airports are widely spread, and include RVK

They have to be, though, because the main diversion airports are Akureyri in the north, Egilsstaðir in the east, and even RVK - although it would take a grave emergency to use that, because of braking issues on the (longest) 1,570m runway. An overshoot could even take the aircraft straight into Icelandair's headquarters.

And such incidents would create logistical problems ferrying passengers to their final destinations in Iceland or abroad.

And otherwise, it is Greenland or the Faroe Islands!

Incident in 2019 cast doubt on efficacy of diversion arrangements

An incident in 2019 exposed KEF's vulnerability to sudden diversion requests when an Executive Jet, landing in front of an Icelandair Boeing 757 from Seattle, underwent a runway excursion, thereby closing the runway. The other runway had been closed overnight for maintenance and had not reopened.

The 757 was short on fuel, but braking measurements for RVK, it's only realistic alternative, could not be relayed in time, so the Icelandair crew took the urgent decision to land on the KEF runway anyway - which it did safely - even while the Executive Jet crew and passengers were still stuck at the end of it.

A subsequent investigation found, inter alia, that given the restricted opening hours of RVK, and the time needed to upgrade rescue and landing capabilities, it was "not a good choice" of alternate for the flight.

So that incident alone might be behind the decision to look seriously at Hvassahraun as a 24/7/365 alternative to KEF that can handle (predominantly) domestic services, thereby replacing RVK, and also international services as required by circumstances.

KEF could face closure from volcanic activity

And of course those circumstances might also include a closure of KEF by volcanic activity.

CAPA - Centre for Aviation looked into this extensively in Jan-2024 in the report: Could Iceland's Keflavik Airport - and Icelandic tourism - be at risk from volcanic activity?

As a strictly operational decision it would make some sense. And expanding RVK to take jets frequently is out of the question. '101 Reykjavik' would firmly say no, as would the rest of the capital.

From the passenger viewpoint though, it doesn't add up. Domestic flights would be shifted halfway to Keflavik, rather than from Reykjavik citizens' own back yard, and that begs the question again of how the proposed high speed rail service would fit into all of this.

If one was to operate from central Keflavik (or at least the main bus station at the north end of the airport), either via RVK or with a common station for both, with a stop at Garðabær, then Hafnarfjörður, then nonstop to the airport (or with a stop in the Keflavik town), then that would solve a multitude of commercial issues all at once.

But it wouldn't solve the diversion issue.

That project should have been under way in 2025 but has consistently been stalled. It isn't hard to understand why.

The 'Lava Express', as it has been named, is damned by its own name. With both public and private investment cash in short measure currently, who would commit to building what would be a very expensive line, hacked out through a huge lava field - and a lava field that might erupt at any time?

Don't mess with the elves

Moreover, few would wish to irritate the 'Huldufólk', the supernatural 'hidden people' in Icelandic folklore of elves and trolls who are supposed to live in the lava, and which inhabit a parallel world, able to make themselves visible at will.

While that might sound like a joke, even recent surveys have revealed that 7% of the population is certain they exist while 45% think it is likely or possible. And Hafnarfjörður, the closest town to Hvassahraun, is their capital.

Smashing a rail line through these rocks would be akin to an elf extinction level event.

The prospects for this line and other high speed rail lines in Iceland were discussed in the Mar-2023 CAPA - Centre for Aviation report: Three major projects (EUR1 billion) at Keflavik Airport in next 12 years - right choice?

'Tourists Go Home' isn't the slogan yet, but it could be

Much of the planning for all of these existing and envisaged airports is predicated of course on international tourism continuing to grow; something that isn't automatically welcomed by some Icelanders any more than it is in other European countries that have adopted 'Tourists Go Home' as their welcoming slogan throughout the northern hemisphere summer.

Even though Iceland has a high propensity to travel among its inhabitants (six times per annum, per capita, on average), air services couldn't exist if they only satisfied the demands of the native population. That is why since the early days of Icelandair's predecessors tourism has been an essential element of the marketing mix; either point-to-point, or via Iceland across the Atlantic, taking a stopover package.

Latterly Play and its predecessor, WOW air, have mimicked Icelandair's model too.

Since the financial crisis and the glacial volcanic eruption of Eyjafjallajökull, which coincided in 2010, improving currency exchange rates markedly for visitors while giving them something spectacular to see, tourism to Iceland has increased relentlessly (apart from the COVID-19 pandemic year), with growth reaching a remarkable 40% between 2015 and 2016.

Iceland: annual tourism, visitor arrivals/growth, from 2009 to 9M2024

Source: CAPA - Centre for Aviation and Icelandic Tourist Board.

However, as is apparent from the chart above, post-pandemic tourism growth has bottomed out, to just +0.8% in 9M2024 (the first three quarters, and including the crucial summer period).

In Sep-2024 growth inched back up to 2.2%, but key markets like the US (-0.1%); Germany (-6.1%); and the UK (-1.4%) are still down. These are the bread-and-butter markets on which the tourist business, which accounted for 8.8% of GDP in 2023, depends.

Those figures have not yet been reflected in traffic figures at KEF (which are only available to Jun-2024 anyway), but the economic situation in parts of the world which provide most of Iceland's foreign tourist is not promising right now.

Can tourism continue to increase at the rate it has done?

There is no knowing if tourism will continue to increase, or if it will be redirected - for example, Akureyri Airport reports an increase in international passenger numbers, with three new European services starting in winter 2024/25.

Or - and this is the 64,000 dollar question - whether Iceland will simply cease to be the hip and trendy destination it suddenly became by accident almost 15 years ago, overtaken by even hippier ones, like Dubrovnik and Montenegro.

Unpredictable volcanic eruptions and earth tremors close to where you are staying, rather than a day tour away, don't help.

At the end of the day, where aviation is concerned, Iceland has some of the most dangerous conditions in the world to contend with, and that will determine whether or not a new Reykjavik domestic airport will be built, and where, along with whether or not it will double as an international one.