Why Wuhan's aviation impact will be vastly larger than SARS

The year of the Rat has not begun auspiciously for Chinese travel. Whatever happens from now on, the Wuhan-originating corona-virus will have a vastly greater impact on the region's aviation and tourism than SARS did in 2003.

That is simply because in 2003 China's role in international aviation and tourism was a pale shadow of its enormous presence today.

In the intervening 17 years China has become the powerhouse of the region. Today, its tourists constitute the largest proportion of international visitors for most countries in Asia Pacific; they are also in many cases the biggest per capita spenders. And air services to and from China have in the meantime grown many times over.

One poignant example, although it seems hard to imagine, in 2003 there were no LCCs operating internationally in Asia. Today they play a major role in China services, both point to point and in connecting to third countries. Also, the number of Chinese airlines flying internationally has multiplied five times over, together making for a much more competitive marketplace.

Already, as the China lockdown continues and airlines cut back on services, both inbound and outbound tourism has staggered almost to a stop. The impact is already massive. What remains unknown is how long and how widespread the virus' spread will continue.

The good news is that all the evidence from SARS was that the industries bounced back very quickly over the following year, once the pandemic was contained. Although, given the lingering questions that remain over a wobbly Chinese economy, other factors might intervene this time around, particularly if the coronavirus becomes extensive in China.