‘This is a big downturn, beyond comprehension’: CAPA Live

The Covid-19 pandemic has caught us all off guard. While the industry has faced numerous previous crises, the fact that subsequent recoveries occurred at different rates had led to complacency and ill-preparedness for an event of such magnitude.

"Initially when we started on this horrible expedition, there was an assumption it would be over in six months. Governments thought so as well but it's obvious now that won't be the case," Peter Harbison, chairman emeritus highlighted on 14-Oct-2020 at the inaugural CAPA Live - a new monthly virtual summit offering insights, information, data and live interviews across a next-gen virtual event platform.

"These priorities - which involved government subsidy of one form or another and airlines raising debt and equity - have now been overtaken, as the cash bleed will continue well into 2021. This is a big downturn, beyond comprehension, and a vaccine won't have a widespread impact at least before the middle of 2021," he warned. "Consumer confidence will be a key part of recovery; if consumers don't come back then obviously there is no industry … finding a uniform formula is key but still remains elusive."

It is clear that travel and transport will remain subdued through 2021 and into subsequent years and the industry needs now to come to terms with the new landscape. But within this space there are pockets of demand that can support those that are adaptable and accept the world for what it is right now. That is a changed world where leisure demand dominates and business travel remains near-dormant.