European narrowbody aircraft fleet: independent LCCs' share grows
In spite of the grounding of 38 of its current fleet of 216 aircraft, Wizz Air Group has reiterated its FY2030 target to more than double its fleet, to 449 aircraft.
Ryanair Group, by far the biggest European operator of narrowbodies - low cost or full service - plans to grow to 800 aircraft in FY2030 from 589 today.
Europe's five leading independent low cost airline groups have a combined fleet of 1,354 narrowbodies. Of these, Ryanair and easyJet have 931 between them, while Wizz Air, Jet2.com and Norwegian's aggregated fleet of 423 aircraft is bigger than the combined low cost subsidiaries of IAG, Lufthansa and Air France-KLM.
The five independent LCCs have 26% of all narrowbodies based in Europe, compared with 24% five years ago and 20% a decade ago.
With a combined 990 narrowbody orders, compared with 247 for the big three legacy groups, the independent LCCs look set to grow this share further.
- Ryanair Group has Europe's largest narrowbody LCC fleet, 247 more than easyJet.
- Wizz Air is now clearly ahead of Norwegian and Jet2.com. The three legacy groups' LCC fleets are closest in size to the third tier independent LCCs.
- Air France-KLM's LCC fleet is 45% of group narrowbodies, versus 41% for IAG and 24% for Lufthansa.
- The big three legacy groups have 247 narrowbody orders outstanding, versus 990 for the five leading independent LCCs.
- The independent LCCs' fleets will continue to grow in the coming years, led by Ryanair and Wizz Air. Their share of Europe's narrowbodies is rising again after the COVID-19 pandemic.
Ryanair Group has Europe's largest narrowbody LCC fleet, 247 more than easyJet
Ryanair Group's total current fleet comprises 589 aircraft as at 28-May-2024. This is 247 more aircraft than Europe's number two LCC fleet, easyJet Group, which has 342 (source: CAPA - Centre for Aviation Fleet Database).
Note that all current fleet totals in this report include both aircraft in service and inactive.
Ryanair's fleet is 72% bigger than easyJet Group's, a percentage that has increased from 34% in Nov-2019 (the last time CAPA - Centre for Aviation published a similar analysis before the COVID-19 pandemic).
Ryanair Group's fleet has grown by 144 aircraft from Nov-2019, whereas easyJet's total is only five aircraft more than at that time.
Wizz Air is now clearly ahead of Norwegian and Jet2.com
Wizz Air Group's fleet stands at 216 aircraft, which is still considerably smaller than the leading two.
Nevertheless, this total is 96 more than it had in Nov-2019. Pre-pandemic, Wizz Air's fleet was only a little bigger than Norwegian's and Jet2.com's, and all three could be considered as second tier LCCs.
Now, however, that Wizz Air has opened up a very clear gap and is a second tier all of its own.
Note also that Wizz Air currently has 38 inactive aircraft awaiting engine maintenance, but this analysis includes grounded aircraft in the totals.
In the third tier, Jet2.com's 120 aircraft are 30 more than in Nov-2019, taking it above Norwegian's fleet, whose 87 narrowbodies aircraft are 10 fewer than in Nov-2019.
European LCC narrowbody fleets: 28-May-2024
The three legacy groups' LCC fleets are closest in size to those of the third tier independent LCCs
The combined narrowbody fleets of the low cost subsidiaries of IAG, Lufthansa Group and Air France-KLM contain 392 aircraft - this is only 50 more than easyJet Group on its own, and 197 fewer than Ryanair Group.
The combined low cost airlines of the three legacy groups have fewer aircraft than the smaller three of the five independent LCCs.
Wizz Air, Jet2.com and Norwegian have 423 aircraft between them.
Across all their airlines (low cost and full service), the big three have a total of 1,120 narrowbody aircraft.
This compares with a total of 1,354 narrowbodies in the fleets of the five leading independent low cost airlines of Western Europe.
Individually, the three legacy groups' low cost fleets are closest in size to the third tier independent low cost groups.
IAG has 160 low cost narrowbodies (132 for Vueling and 28 for Iberia Express), which is comfortably the biggest such fleet among Europe's big three legacy groups and seven more than it had in Nov-2019.
Lufthansa Group has 111 low cost narrowbodies (87 with Eurowings and 24 with Eurowings Europe Ltd), which is five more than in Nov-2019.
Air France-KLM has grown its LCC narrowbody fleet the most among the three legacy groups. Its 121 aircraft (73 for Transavia France and 48 for the Dutch Transavia) are 47 more low cost narrowbodies than in Nov-2019.
Transavia France has almost doubled, from 38 aircraft in Nov-2019.
Air France-KLM, IAG and Lufthansa Group: narrowbody fleets by operator, 28-May-2024
Air France-KLM's LCC fleet is 45% of group narrowbodies, vs 41% for IAG and 24% for Lufthansa
Although Air France-KLM's total narrowbody and LCC narrowbody fleet is smaller than both Lufthansa Group's and IAG's, it has the highest percentage operated by its low cost brands.
Air France-KLM's Transavia brand accounts for 45% of the group's narrowbodies - up from 29% in Nov-2019.
IAG as 41% of its narrowbodies under low cost brands (only 1ppt higher than in Nov-2019), and Lufthansa Group has just 24% (down by 2ppts from Nov-2019).
Air France-KLM, IAG and Lufthansa Group: narrowbody aircraft numbers by business model, 28-May-2024
The big three legacy groups have 247 narrowbody orders outstanding…
According to the CAPA - Centre for Aviation Fleet Database, the three big legacy airline groups currently have a total of 247 outstanding orders for narrowbody aircraft. They have not all specified in full whether these orders are destined for their low cost or legacy brand airlines.
To give some perspective, this number of orders is 63% of the total of 392 narrowbodies in their LCC brands, but only 22% of the 1,120 narrowbodies in their combined group fleets.
…versus 990 for the five leading independent LCCs
The five leading independent LCCs have 990 outstanding firm narrowbody orders between them, which is 73% of the 1,354 aircraft in their total fleet.
On an individual basis, Wizz Air has the highest number of outstanding firm orders, with 321 (149% of its current fleet), followed by easyJet with 300 (88%), and Ryanair with 209 (35%).
Jet2.com has 95 orders representing 85% of its current fleet, while Norwegian's 58 orders is 67% of its current fleet.
Air France-KLM has the fewest narrowbody orders among the legacy groups, with 37. This is 31% of its current low cost fleet, but only 14% of its total narrowbody fleet.
Lufthansa has 105 narrowbody orders (95% of its current LCC fleet, 23% of total narrowbody fleet).
IAG also has 105 narrowbody orders (66% of its current LCC fleet and 27% of its total narrowbodies).
European narrowbody LCC fleets and order numbers, 28-May-2024
The independent LCCs' fleets will continue to grow in the coming years, led by Ryanair and Wizz Air
The chart below shows the development at calendar year-end of the leading independent LCC fleets from 2005 to 2023.
It also has projections to 2027, based on airline company fleet plans and guidance published for financial years nearest to the calendar years of the projection.
Ryanair aims for 800 aircraft by the year to Mar-2034. While it has published fleet targets from its FY2027 to FY2034, it has not given targets for the first two years of the plan.
The chart below assumes a linear progression until Ryanair reaches its target of 655 aircraft for FY2027 (its closest financial year to calendar 2026), and then 670 in FY2028.
This will keep Ryanair comfortably ahead of all other European LCCs in terms of fleet size.
easyJet's base case fleet plan aims for 227 aircraft in FY2024, rising to 384 in FY2027 (based on its September financial year-end). Its maximum fleet in 2027 could be 392 (and its minimum 311).
According to Wizz Air's FY2024 results presentation of 23-May-2024, the group plans to grow its fleet to 227 aircraft by its financial year-end of Mar-2025 and to 383 by Mar-2028 (nearest to calendar 2027).
This is almost level with easyJet's target for its nearest financial year to calendar 2027.
Even if easyJet grows to 392 in 2027, Wizz Air's target of 449 aircraft by FY2030 means it is likely to overtake easyJet as Europe's number two LCC fleet by 2028 (or possibly 2029).
Jet2.com published an indicative fleet plan with its interim results presentation in Nov-2023, suggesting growth to c.135 aircraft by summer 2027.
Norwegian's 1Q2024 results presentation on 25-Apr-2024 included a fleet plan targeting 101 aircraft for year-end 2025 and then 102 in 2026 and 2027, with a 2030 target of 110.
Ryanair Group, easyJet Group, Wizz Air Group, Jet2.com and Norwegian Group: year-end fleet numbers 2005 to 2027f*
Independent LCCs share of Europe's narrowbodies is rising again after COVID-19 pandemic…
The combined narrowbody fleets of Ryanair Group, easyJet Group, Wizz Air Group, Jet2.com and Norwegian Group represent 26% of the Europe's total current narrowbody fleet, as at 28-May-2024.
This share has grown from 9% at the end of 2005.
After reaching 24% in 2018 and 2019, it slipped back to 2 percentage points in 2021, before rising to 26% at the end of 2023.
Ryanair Group, easyJet Group, Wizz Air Group, Jet2.com and Norwegian Group: combined share of Europe narrowbodies, year-end 2005 to 2023*
…and looks likely to continue to grow
The growth in fleet share of the independent LCCs once again highlights their nimble and growth-focused approach.
Short/medium haul European markets are likely to become increasingly penetrated by this group of five low cost operators - particularly Ryanair and Wizz Air.