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Copa Airlines: 737 MAX 9 and MAX 10 to drive new expansion phase, lower CASK from upgauging

Analysis

Copa Airlines plans to focus expansion over the next few years on adding capacity to existing markets by deploying new higher density aircraft. The new 737 MAX family of aircraft will be a game changer for Copa as it will enable the Panama-based airline group to increase seat density and reduce fuel burn, driving a reduction in its already low unit costs.

The delivery of 15 737 MAX 9s in 2H2018 and 2019 will provide an initial opportunity for the airline group to upgauge flights now operated with smaller 737-800s. Copa will pursue further upgauging early next decade as it takes delivery of at least 15 737 MAX 10s.

The 737-800 is the backbone of Copa's fleet, accounting for 65% of the group's total fleet, and is now its largest aircraft. Copa has no intentions of adding widebody aircraft but is able reap the benefits of higher capacity aircraft with the 737 MAX 9 and 737 MAX 10 while keeping true to its all narrowbody model.

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