China’s international capacity growth: part one – balance has shifted on routes to Western Europe

China's international capacity is finally moving close to pre-pandemic levels, although growth has been uneven as some of the country's key markets have been drastically affected by geopolitical tensions.

The comparatively slow return of China's international traffic was a major theme of the post-pandemic years.

While the country's international capacity is now making steady progress overall, economic and political dynamics have resulted in contrasting fortunes for specific traffic flows - including European and US routes.

It is widely recognised that inbound demand - from visitors to China - has recovered more quickly than outbound demand. This is partially due to economic conditions that have been a disincentive for Chinese travellers to vacation abroad.

There are many other nuances below the topline numbers; for example, in many of China's international markets capacity trends have diverged for Chinese and overseas airlines.

In general, China-Western Europe capacity is above 2019 levels (driven by Chinese airlines), China-Australia and China-Vietnam are surging, and the China-India market is gaining ground quickly after a late restart.

Meanwhile, the China-US, China-Japan and China-Thailand markets have seen a much weaker recovery.

Part one of this two-part analysis will look at some overall trends and the important China-Western Europe market. Part two will focus on some of China's other important international markets, such as the US, Japan, Australia, Vietnam and Thailand.