American-US Airways merger; high noon showdown with the US DoJ

American Airlines, US Airways and the US Department of Justice (DoJ) have approximately two months to sharpen their arguments supporting and opposing the merger of the two carriers after the DoJ dropped its bombshell in Aug-2013 with a lawsuit to block the merger entirely. In this it was supported by several state administrations, including that of American's home base in Texas.

The airlines have succeeded in their quest for an early trial date in Nov-2013, against DoJ's request to delay until Feb-2014. Now that a firm date has been established speculation is rising that a potential settlement between the parties may be reached prior to their day in court.

But if those theories fail to materialise, then each side faces the formidable tasks of convincing a judge that their respective arguments are correct. It is a high-stakes gamble for each of the entities, and while popular industry opinion is heavily weighted towards the opinion that the DoJ's argument is illogical, the final judgment is tough to predict. Meanwhile, the outside world continues to turn and the would-be merger airlines must continue as if it were business as usual.