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Analysis Reports
We employ a global team of highly-experienced analysts who deliver a wealth of commentary about the aviation and travel industry. Our analysts don’t just report the news, they look at the big picture to help you understand how the latest news, issues and trends will affect your business. CAPA’s commitment to independence and integrity means every report is filled with accurate data and actionable insights to help you stay ahead of the game.
On 6-Feb-2025 the long haul LCC Norse Atlantic Airways announced an agreement to provide one wet lease aircraft to Indigo, the largest airline in India, on long haul routes from Mar-2025.
The six-month contract is extendable up to 18 months, and the two airlines are considering further collaboration, including the supply of additional aircraft.
This is an important milestone in Norse's strategic shift to place greater emphasis on third party flying, while reducing the importance of its scheduled network.
According to CAPA - Centre for Aviation/OAG, Norse Atlantic is scheduled to operate eight routes (from Oslo, Paris CDG, Rome FCO and Athens) in summer 2025, while its subsidiary Norse Atlantic UK will fly four routes (from London Gatwick).
Across the group, the network will be one route smaller than in northern summer 2024. This suggests a lack of profitable expansion opportunities for its own operations.
ACMI expansion could turn its surplus capacity into an advantage at a time when its fleet of young Boeing 787 widebodies are just what many growth airlines are seeking.
Airports: Thailand to create a national logistics ‘hub’ – more likely focused on the Bangkok area
Thailand - and Bangkok especially - is in tough competition for international air passenger traffic in Southeast Asia, with highly established airports and others where there is a large amount of investment and infrastructure investment ongoing to ensure that they are also in the race for regional dominance.
Airports of Thailand (AoT) has already set out its stall with heavy investments at the two Bangkok airports that it controls, as well as new or 'almost new' refurbished airports across the provinces, and especially in tourist areas.
But that international competition demands innovation, and the way the Transport Ministry has chosen to do that is by laying out a pathway towards coordinated development of air, surface and marine transport, the latter including both commercial shipping and leisure cruises.
Although it is a national scheme to cement the notion of Thailand as a logistics hub, the reality (as CAPA - Centre for Aviation sees it) is that the main thrust, at least to begin with, will be in building up a smaller focused hub between Bangkok and Utapao-Rayong-Pattaya. One that will embrace the two AoT Bangkok airports, a major container and growing cruise port at Laem Chabang, the long established tourist resort at Pattaya and the small and (slowly post-pandemic recovering) airport at Utapao, which with a 3,500m x 60m runway is suitable for long haul charter operations.
All of those places will eventually be connected by one of five high speed rail lines planned for Thailand, at a length of 200km (125 miles), but probably not for another decade yet, unless this scheme speeds up its implementation.
Although major changes could be afoot in Brazil, at this point the country's leading airline LATAM Airlines Brazil seems unfazed about plans by its rivals Azul and GOL to merge.
LATAM's composure is driven in part by yet-to-be-determined concessions that Azul and GOL will agree to, in order to gain regulatory approval for their proposed tie-up, which could potentially provide opportunities for LATAM.
Another reason for LATAM's calm reaction is the work that the company completed during its time in bankruptcy to solidify its stature as the leading airline group in the region - a jump-start that could prove beneficial, because dynamics in Brazil could shift.
However, it's tough not to believe that some internal planning is occurring to combat the competitive advantages that a combined Azul and GOL could achieve.
The aviation industry in Africa presents both significant opportunities and challenges, with the potential for remarkable growth driven by economic development, rising demand for air travel, and the need for better connectivity across the continent.
In this report, we will examine the current state of aviation in Africa, identify the strongest and weakest markets, and explore opportunities for development using GDP and economic growth data.
The Cayman Islands, nestled in the Caribbean Sea and still a British Overseas Territory, are best known as a tax-free financial centre and as a vacation idyll for the financially well endowed.
But with a short runway, incapable of handling a fully laden long haul jet, the Caymans cannot reach their full touristic potential.
A long-established master plan that would see the runway extended and a new terminal built looks as if it will come to fruition during the next few years, enabling long haul flights to land and take off with full loads.
Currently the vast majority of visitors come from North America.
But with those new tourists from Europe, and possibly Latin America, would come demands for a more budget-oriented infrastructure that does not exist presently, but which is found in Jamaica and the Dominican Republic, for example.
The other matter to consider is whether now is the time to revisit the prospect of privatisation.
The halfway house that is the public-private partnership (PPP) seems to fit the demands of the Caribbean airport environment quite well, and there are examples of that not too far away.
IndiGo is primed for higher growth this year, as groundings diminish and long haul plans beckon
IndiGo has done an impressive job of maintaining its international growth, despite a daunting number of narrowbody groundings, and it is now looking to boost its overseas expansion by accelerating plans to introduce new widebody types.
The airline has been one of the hardest hit by the Pratt & Whitney engine issues that have caused a maintenance backlog and a chronic shortage of engines for many operators of Airbus A320neo-family aircraft.
IndiGo has still managed to increase its international capacity, however, with new deliveries and additional leased aircraft more than offsetting the groundings. Now, the number of grounded aircraft is steadily decreasing, raising the prospect of an even higher growth rate.
International expansion is a priority for IndiGo, and the next stage will involve adding more long-range aircraft.
The airline has signalled the importance of this step by attempting to bring in widebodies sooner than planned, via wet leases, as it eyes the India-Europe market.
Vietnam aviation update: part two – Vietnam Airlines fleet plans, and airport developments
Vietnam's aviation sector is primed for significant growth, with large orders either pending or in place for the two major airlines, and major airport development projects under way.
Part one of this update focused on overall market dynamics in Vietnam, and LCC Vietjet. This second part will examine Vietnam Airlines, airline growth challenges, and the status of the country's airport infrastructure programs.
Lufthansa Group will take a 10% stake in airBaltic for EUR14 million, in the form of convertible shares, and a supervisory board seat. Subject to competition authority approval, the deal is expected to close in 2Q2025.
In the event of an airBaltic IPO, Lufthansa's investment will be converted into ordinary shares, representing no less than 5%.
The two airlines already have a codeshare agreement and, in addition, airBaltic provides wet lease capacity to Lufthansa Group.
AirBaltic carried record passenger numbers in 2024, and its fleet size reached 49 aircraft (all Airbus A220-300s, making it the world's largest operator of the type). The airline has further growth ambitions, both in its own network and in its wet lease activities, and is aiming for 100 aircraft by 2030.
Lufthansa's investment gives airBaltic some support for these ambitions, but it needs the long-planned IPO to allow the Latvian government to liquidate much of its holding and to drive these plans more fully.
Vietnam's two dominant airlines are planning dramatic fleet growth in coming years, with orders for hundreds of aircraft either in place or pending to take advantage of one of the Asia Pacific region's hottest markets.
The low cost carrier VietJet Air has led the way, by boosting its order backlog past 250 narrowbody jets, and is also adding widebodies to the mix. The flag carrier Vietnam Airlines, meanwhile, is intending to order up to 100 narrowbodies in two phases.
Although ambitious growth agendas are common in Asia, Vietnam's still stands out. One of the region's largest airport construction projects is under way near Ho Chi Minh City to provide the infrastructure necessary for airline expansion.
Part one of this analysis looks at the overall market dynamics and VietJet Air, while part two will discuss Vietnam Airlines and the airport plans.
Edelweiss Air, the leading leisure airline in Switzerland, will celebrate its 30th anniversary in 2025.
Based in Zurich and founded in 1995, it has been part of the Lufthansa Group since 2008.
Lufthansa folds the operating and financial performance of Edelweiss into those of SWISS, whose fleet of 83 aircraft dwarfs the 19 of its sister leisure airline. As such, Edelweiss operates largely below the radar of industry observers.
However, its network is not insubstantial. For northern summer 2025 Edelweiss' website offers 102 destinations from Zurich, with destinations in Europe, Middle East, Africa, Asia, North America and Latin America.
Edelweiss recovered from COVID-19 more rapidly, and is more price-competitive, than SWISS.
It is looking forward to growth and new Airbus A350-900 widebodies in 2025.