Outlook 2024: will the current churn in North American aviation continue into 2024?

There's been a constant flux in the North American aviation market during 2023, with New York-based JetBlue at the centre of many developments. The airline was forced to dissolve its Northeast Alliance (NEA) with American Airlines after a court deemed the partnership to be anticompetitive.

Now, as 2023 comes to a close, the fate of JetBlue's proposed merger with Spirit Airlines lies in the hands of a judge, and the outcome is tough to predict.

Just as the judge is preparing his decision, Alaska Air Group has formally started an acquisition of, and merger with, Hawaiian Airlines - as smaller US airlines work to build scale in an attempt to compete with the four airlines that control more than 70% of US domestic capacity.

Spirit and its fellow ultra-low cost carrier (ULCC) Frontier Airlines have been battling a negative financial performance, and each airline will likely be under scrutiny in 2024 as they work to reverse their fortunes.

Across the border, Canadian airlines continue to carve out their positions in the marketplace. The country's major operators will continue to preserve their dominance, but the fate of the country's smaller airlines is less certain.