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Germany aviation: market slips from 2nd to 3rd in Europe; Lufthansa Group share erodes

Premium Analysis

Germany was Europe's number two aviation market by seats pre-COVID, behind only the UK, but it has slipped to third.

This owes much to the slower capacity recovery by German airlines from the COVID-19 pandemic compared with rival airlines in this market. Germany may struggle to recover the number two ranking from Spain in the near to medium term.

Lufthansa Group has said that it plans 85% of its 2019 capacity for 2023, while the leading ultra-LCCs Ryanair, Wizz Air and Pegasus Airlines are already now far above this level.

Although LCC share is lower in Germany than elsewhere in Europe, the ultra-LCCs are outpacing the overall German capacity recovery.

The long term decline in Lufthansa Group's seat share seems likely to continue.

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