Europe to Morocco aviation: Ryanair and easyJet underline further growth potential
Both Ryanair and easyJet plan to launch services between Liverpool John Lennon Airport and Marrakech Menara Airport at the start of the coming winter season.
The market between Europe and Morocco is enjoying a strong recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic. Europe-Morocco seat numbers are scheduled to be 36% above 2019 levels this year, while the overall Europe market is projected to be flat on 2019 capacity.
Ryanair, the market leader, is responsible for almost two thirds of Europe-Morocco market capacity growth in 2024 versus 2019. Fourth-placed easyJet is also growing seat share, whereas number two Royal Air Maroc and third-ranked Air Arabia Maroc are losing share.
Europe-Morocco benefits from year-round demand and open skies agreements. Ryanair and easyJet's choice of a small European airport not previously connected to Morocco for a new route signals their confidence in further growth potential.
- Europe-Morocco capacity in 2024 is 36% above 2019's.
- Ryanair and easyJet's new route from a small European airport shows further growth potential.
- Ryanair is Europe-Morocco's biggest airline by seats in 2024, and has almost doubled capacity since 2019.
- Ryanair and fourth-placed easyJet are growing seat share, while Royal Air Maroc and Air Arabia Maroc have lost share.
- France is the leading European country by seats to Morocco, followed by Spain, and the UK is third (and fastest growing).
- Europe-Morocco enjoys year-round demand and benefits from open skies agreements.
Europe-Morocco capacity in 2024 is 36% above 2019's
The Europe-Morocco market has enjoyed strong growth in the aftermath of COVID-19, not only recovering, but growing much larger than before the pandemic.
There are 325 routes between Europe and Morocco in the week of 26-Aug-2024, up from 288 in the equivalent week of 2023, and 266 in the same week of 2019.
Annual seat numbers in the market are scheduled to be up by 19.1% year-on-year in 2024.
Europe-Morocco seat capacity this year is projected to be 36.3% higher than in 2019. This compares with projections for the total Europe market to be flat on 2019.
Europe to Morocco: weekly seats by airline, Jan-2019 to Jan-2025*
Ryanair and easyJet's new route from a small European airport shows further growth potential
The new services to be launched by Ryanair and easyJet this winter are the first to Morocco from Liverpool.
The destination, Marrakech, is the biggest airport in the Europe-Morocco market.
The decision by Europe's two biggest low cost airlines to add new services from a relatively small airport (Liverpool John Lennon ranks as Europe's number 126 by seats in the week of 26-Aug-2024) illustrates the positive demand environment in this market.
Ryanair will have slightly more capacity than easyJet
Ryanair UK is scheduled to launch twice-weekly Boeing 737-800 services between Liverpool John Lennon Airport and Marrakech Menara Airport on 27-Oct-2024.
easyJet also plans to serve the route, starting two weeks later on 11-Nov-2024, with Airbus A319 and A320 aircraft. Initially twice weekly, it is scheduled to increase to three times weekly from 9-Dec-2024, and then return to twice weekly from 6-Jan-2024.
The route is not currently operated by any airline.
Apart from the period when easyJet flies one extra weekly flight over Christmas and New Year, Ryanair will have the advantage in seat capacity on the route, due to its larger aircraft. Ryanair will have 53.1% of seats, with easyJet on 46.9%.
Ryanair is Europe-Morocco's biggest airline by seats in 2024…
More significantly, Ryanair is the largest airline by seats in the wider Europe-Morocco market.
According to data from CAPA - Centre for Aviation and OAG, Ryanair (including Ryanair UK) is scheduled to have 33.5% of seats between Europe and Morocco in the full year 2024.
Ryanair's share is more than twice that of Royal Air Maroc, the number two operator, and more than three times the share of Air Arabia, easyJet and Transavia (including Transavia France).
…and has almost doubled capacity since 2019
Ryanair has been growing strongly on routes to/from Morocco, with a 25.5% capacity increase year-on-year in 2024.
The airline has almost doubled its capacity since 2019 (an increase of 96.7%). Its additional seat numbers in 2024 versus 2019, scheduled to be 4.8 million, account for 62% of all the additional seats in the market over the same time frame.
In percentage terms, easyJet's growth has been even stronger, with a 61.6% increase year-on-year in 2024 and growth of 123.7% since 2019.
Europe to Morocco: top 10 airlines* by annual seats, 2019, 2023 and 2024**
|
Airline* |
seats |
2024 vs 2023 (percentage) |
2024 vs 2019 (percentage) |
|---|---|---|---|
|
9,839,356 |
25.5% |
96.7% |
|
|
4,846,852 |
2.8% |
-3.0% |
|
|
3,186,444 |
18.6% |
26.4% |
|
|
2,901,475 |
61.6% |
123.7% |
|
|
2,575,977 |
14.2% |
34.6% |
|
|
1,217,697 |
5.9% |
30.6% |
|
|
1,206,181 |
-1.9% |
-32.8% |
|
|
491,229 |
4.7% |
51.7% |
|
|
505,805 |
9.2% |
28.4% |
|
|
411,842 |
40.1% |
606.4% |
|
|
Total Market |
19.1% |
36.3% |
Ryanair and fourth-placed easyJet have increased seat share…
easyJet is only fourth in the Europe-Morocco market, with 9.9% of seats - but this share has grown from 6.0% in 2019 and 7.3% in 2023.
Ryanair's 33.5% seat share in 2024 is up from 23.2% in 2019 and 31.7% in 2023.
…whereas Royal Air Maroc and Air Arabia Maroc have lost share
Second-placed Royal Air Maroc has suffered a drop in share, from 23.2% in 2019 to 19.1% in 2023, and 16.5% in 2024.
Air Arabia Maroc, another low cost operator, has a share of 10.8% in 2024, almost stable on 2023 (10.9%), but down from 11.7% in 2019.
Among the top 10 airline brands on Europe-Morocco, Transavia, Air France, Iberia and Vueling have held their seat share fairly level since 2019.
However, TUI Group's airlines have lost share from 8.3% in 2019 to 5.0% in 2023, and 4.1% in 2024.
At number 10, Wizz Air Group has only 1.4% of seats, but this was just 0.3% in 2019, and it has edged Turkish Airlines out of the top 10 this year.
Europe to Morocco: annual seat share for top 10 airline brands*, 2019, 2023 and 2024**
France is the leading European country by seats to Morocco, followed by Spain…
Analysis of the Europe-Morocco market by European country reveals that France is comfortably the biggest by seats. France has historic political ties with Morocco, where French is widely spoken.
France accounts for 37.6% seats scheduled between Europe and Morocco in 2024, more than twice the 16.6% share of second-placed Spain.
Spain also has historic cultural and political ties with Morocco and is also its nearest European neighbour.
…while the UK is third (and fastest growing)
The UK is the third biggest Europe-Morocco market, with 10.6% of seats. Italy is fourth, with 7.7% of seats, Belgium is fifth, with 7.1% of seats, ahead of Netherlands (3.8%) and Türkiye (3.2%).
Among the leading European markets to/from Morocco, the UK has enjoyed the fastest capacity growth.
UK seat numbers are up 47.0% year-on-year in 2024 and are 89.8% higher than in 2019. As a result, its seat share has gained 3.0ppts since 2019, and 2.0ppts since 2023.
France's share is down by 1.0ppt versus 2019, and by 1.9ppts versus 2023. Spain's share is up by 2.7ppts compared with 2019, but is down by 1.2ppts year-on-year.
Europe to Morocco: weekly seats by European country*, Jan-2019 to Jan-2025*
Europe-Morocco enjoys year-round demand…
The market for air travel between Europe and Morocco benefits from fairly even year-round demand. This reflects its attractions as a leisure destination, with hot summers (but not too hot for northern European visitors to the coast) and mild winters.
In calendar 2024 the summer season is scheduled to account for 62% of annual seats in this market - almost in line with its 60% share of weeks in the year.
The Europe market as a whole is more dependent on the summer, which accounts for 66% of total seats.
…and benefits from open skies agreements
Crucially, too, the Europe-Morocco aviation market enjoys the advantages of an open skies agreement between the EU and Morocco.
Under the agreement, finalised in 2006, all capacity restrictions were removed. The UK and Morocco agreed a new bilateral providing continuity of services after the UK's exit from the EU.
The result of liberalising the market between Europe and Morocco has been to stimulate growth in capacity on existing routes and the creation of new routes.
The imminent launches by Ryanair and easyJet - and the capacity analysis above - illustrate that this process is still helping to drive strong growth in the Europe-Morocco market almost two decades later.