Europe summer 2018 airline capacity growth still above 10y average

Premium Analysis

Growth in airline seats from Europe will slow to 5.2% in summer 2018, versus 6.2% in summer 2017, according to CAPA analysis of OAG data. This will be the slowest summer growth rate since 2014, but well above the 10 year average of 3.9% for the fifth year running.

Jet2.com and Wizz Air are the fastest-growing European airline groups, while Air Europa, Finnair, TAP Portugal, easyJet, Aeroflot Group and Lufthansa Group are also growing at double-digit rates. The demise of airberlin and Monarch has led to some consolidation of seat share in the hands of larger groups.

Europe to Africa will grow fastest, but growth will also be above trend to every other region from Europe (including intra-Europe), apart from Europe-Middle East.

Within Europe, LCC seat growth will be almost twice non-LCC growth, and Eastern/Central Europe will outpace Western Europe. On the North Atlantic, growth above trend is being driven by LCCs, whose seat share will be 8.0% (versus 3.0% two summers ago), while immunised JV share continues to fall. On Europe-Asia Pacific, accelerating growth is mainly driven by Asian airlines.

This report presents data on growth and airline group seat share for each major destination region from Europe this summer.

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