Cathay Pacific consolidates Middle East network as competition grows in local and source markets

Cathay Pacific is consolidating its Middle East network, largely prompted by a flood of capacity in the Middle East-Philippines market. Passengers from the Philippines alone often comprise half or more of Cathay's Middle East flights. The Middle East-Philippines market has grown rapidly, led by a 70% increase in UAE-Philippines capacity as Cebu Pacific launched long-haul flights and Emirates and Etihad increased capacity.

The smaller Saudi Arabia-Philippines market has grown by over 60%. The result has been over-capacity with no winners as the market is intensely price-driven by contractors seeking seats for Filipino migrant workers. Cathay's reductions, while small, are likely only the start of needed consolidation between the Philippines and Middle East.

Cathay is particularly at the losing end as its once-tidy Philippines-Middle East market has come under Gulf and LCC competition that can offer lower fares and more direct services. Some Philippines-Middle East markets require two stops due to triangular routings, which are being discontinued. Also discontinued are services to Jeddah and Abu Dhabi. Air Seychelles, 40% owned by Etihad, introduced Abu Dhabi-Hong Kong services in 2013.

While Cathay may not experience such fierce and sudden competition changes elsewhere in its market, it is an unwelcome example of what such vibrant market conditions including more Gulf, LCC and non-stop competition can do to its network, which has partially relied on traffic other carriers could not or did not bother to carry. While that has been a smart network foundation, it is also a shifting one, as European carriers and even Singapore Airlines have found.