17-Oct-2014 9:22 AM
IATA releases first 20-year forecast, China to overtake US as largest market by 2030
IATA released (16-Oct-2014) its first 20-year passenger growth forecast, projecting that passenger numbers are expected to reach 7.3 billion by 2034, growth of 4.1% p/a and more than double the 3.3 billion passengers expected to travel in 2014. The report forecasts passenger numbers by way of three key demand drivers: living standards, population and demographics, and price and availability.
Future growth trends:
- China will overtake the US as the world's largest passenger market (defined by traffic to, from and within) by 2030. Both markets, however, are expected to remain the largest by a wide margin. In 2034 flights to, from and within China will account for some 1.3 billion passengers, 856 million more than 2014 with an average annual growth rate of 5.5%. Traffic to, from and within the US is expected to grow at an average annual growth rate of 3.2% that will see 1.2 billion passengers by 2034 (559 million more than 2014);
- By 2034 the five fastest-increasing markets in terms of additional passengers per year will be China (856 million new passengers p/a), the US (559 million), India (266 million), Indonesia (183 million) and Brazil (170 million);
- Eight of the ten fastest-growing markets in percentage terms will be in Africa with Central African Republic, Madagascar, Tanzania, Burundi and Kuwait making up the five fastest-growing markets;
- In terms of country-pairs, Asian and South American destinations will see the fastest growth, reflecting economic and demographic growth in those markets. Intra-Pakistan, Kuwait-Thailand, UAE-Ethiopia, Colombia-Ecuador and intra- Honduras travel will all grow by at least 9.5% on average for the next 20 years, while Indonesia-East Timor will be the fastest growing pair of all, at 14.9%.
10 largest air passenger markets (traffic to, from and within) for the period 2014-2034:
- US will remain the largest air passenger market until around 2030, when it will drop to number two, behind China. Cumulatively over the next 20 years the US will carry 18.3 billion more passengers and China 16.9 billion;
- India, currently the ninth largest market, will see a total of 367 million passengers by 2034, an extra 266 million annual passengers compared to today. It will overtake the UK (148 million extra passengers, total market 337 million) to become the 3rd largest market around 2031.
- Japan air passenger market will grow just 1.3% p/a and decline from the 4th largest market to the 9th largest by 2033, reflecting a declining and ageing population;
- Germany and Spain will decline from 5th and 6th position in 2014 to be the 8th and 7th largest markets respectively;
- France will fall from 7th to 10th while Italy will fall out of the top 10 altogether in around 2019;
- Brazil passengers numbers to increase by 170 million, rising from 10th to 5th. Its total market will be 272 million passengers;
- Indonesia to enter top ten around 2020 and attain 6th place by 2029. By 2034 it will be a market of 270 million passengers.
Regional growth highlights:
- Routes to, from and within Asia-Pacific will see an extra 1.8 billion annual passengers by 2034, with an overall market size of 2.9 billion. It will increase its size compared to other regions to 42% of global passenger traffic, at a growth rate of 4.9%, joint-highest with the Middle East;
- North America to grow by 3.3% p/a, with an additional 649 million passengers in 2034, a total of 1.4 billion passengers p/a;
- Europe will have the slowest growth rate, 2.7%, but will still cater for an additional 591 million passengers p/a. The total market will be 1.4 billion passengers;
- Latin America to grow by 4.7%, serving a total of 605 million passengers, an additional 363 million passengers p/a;
- Middle East to grow 4.9% p/a, with an extra 237 million passengers p/a. The UAE, Qatar and Saudi Arabia will all enjoy strong growth of 5.6%, 4.8%, and 4.6% respectively. The total market size will be 383 million passengers;
- Africa will grow by 4.7%. By 2034 it will see an extra 177 million passengers p/a for a total market of 294 million passengers.
Domestic air passengers markets
- China will be the fastest-growing domestic market, at 5.6% p/a. By 2034 it will account for 1 billion passengers (691 million additional domestic passengers);
- US domestic market will expand by 3.2% p/a, to 822 million passengers, an additional 384 million passengers annually;
- Indian and Brazilian domestic markets will grow at 6.9% and 5.4% respectively. India will add 159 million extra passengers and Brazil 147 million. Their total domestic air markets will be 215 million and 226 million;
- Indonesia will be the fifth largest domestic market. It will grow at 6.4%, adding an extra 136 million passengers a year by 2034. The total Indonesian domestic market will be 191 million;
- The remaining top ten domestic markets will be Turkey (5.3%), Philippines (5.9%), Mexico (4.6%), Colombia (6.0%), and Vietnam (6.2%). [more - original PR]