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Flybe Pre-Close Statement

Direct News Source

29-Mar-2017 Competitive conditions in the market continue

Flybe announces a trading update for its estimated performance for the fourth quarter ending 31 March 2017. The period has been characterised by weak demand in an uncertain consumer environment, together with price competition arising from overcapacity amongst airlines and sharpened price activity from rail operators. Weather related and operational cancellations, as well as industrial action mainly by French air traffic controllers also impacted revenue.

Flybe responded by taking further action on cost and reducing the capacity it flew. As a result, Flybe slowed its year-on-year seat capacity2 growth further to 10% (Q3: 12.7%). Although load factor3 fell by around 1.4 ppts year-on-year in the final quarter, this was an improvement compared to the previous quarter's 1.7 ppts reduction. Passenger yield1 rose by 2.9% in Q4 (Q3: 2.8%). As a result, estimated passenger revenue5 rose by 9.8% in the final quarter (Q3: 13.5%).

Flybe is planning a major upgrade to its core systems, which will significantly improve the customer experience and allow greater ecommerce activities. As a result, a full review of software assets and IT contracts is being conducted which is expected to result in additional cost and non-cash write downs, which could impact profit by around £5m to £10m in the current financial year. Excluding this, adjusted profit before tax for the year ended 31 March 2017 is expected to be a small loss.

Flybe has taken delivery of nine Q400 aircraft in the year, arising from the legacy aircraft contract commitments. We therefore expect the peak size of the fleet to be reached next month with a total of 85 aircraft. As previously announced, Flybe has informed lessors that all six end-of-lease aircraft will be returned in the second half of 2017/18. This will lead to the fleet reducing in size.

Total cash balance remains healthy and we expect net debt to be around £75m at the end of the year.

Summer UK trading to-date (H1 2017/18 forward trading position as at 19 March 2017)

At this early stage, Summer trading is in line with our expectations:

  • 3% increase in capacity versus prior year as the fleet size peaks
  • 18% of capacity has already been sold, in line with prior year
  • 6% increase in yield, helped by the timing of Easter
  • 11% increase in revenue

Christine Ourmieres-Widener, Chief Executive, said:

"I continue to be very excited about the opportunities in Flybe, especially as we are now able for the first time to take control of our fleet size to reduce overcapacity. Flybe is increasingly a digitally enabled business, with 80% of bookings already being made via our website. To seize this opportunity, we must first rebuild some of our core systems and this is now starting. We shall continue to reduce costs, work with our partners to improve efficiency and stop unprofitable flying.

I look forward to updating the market on my priorities for Flybe at our Full Year Results announcement on 8 June."

Enquiries:

Flybe

Philip de Klerk, Chief Financial Officer

Tel: +44 (0)20 7379 5151

Maitland

Andy Donald

Tel: +44 (0)20 7379 5151

Flybe UK KPIs

Quarter to
31 Mar 2017

Quarter to
31 Mar 2016

Change

Seats and passengers

Scheduled seats (million)

2.9

2.6

10%

Passengers (million)

1.9

1.8

6.6%

Load factor (%)

66.6%

68.0%

(1.4ppts)

Hedging

Flybe UK's current hedge books6 at 20 March 2017 are summarised below (all hedges are forward swaps).

Jet fuel (c $120m annual expenditure)

  • H1 2017/18 - 93% hedged at $484.02 per tonne
  • H2 2017/18 - 75% hedged at $495.48 per tonne
  • H1 2018/19 - 20% hedged at $546.63 per tonne

US Dollar (c. $315m annual spend)

  • H1 2017/18 - 91% hedged at $1.4143
  • H2 2017/18 - 80% hedged at $1.4190
  • H1 2018/19 - 12% hedged at $1.2983

Flybe UK currently has a broadly neutral position in Euro income and expenditure.