COVID-19 transmission jumps from regional to global level
• The COVID 19 outbreak continues to impact the world with the rise of new cases outside of China, especially in S. Korea, Iran and Italy. As new cases outside of China exceed new cases in China, in this week's chart of the week we take a closer look at passenger numbers and revenues in the regions that are newly impacted and give a broader view of the potential risk.
• As of 27 February, the countries with confirmed cases in excess of 90 (China, Italy, Iran, Japan, Singapore, South Korea) represent 25% of global passenger numbers and 20% of global passenger revenues. However, when we take a broader look at the affected counties to assess the passenger numbers and revenues at risk, countries with the confirmed cases constitute c. 83% of both global passenger numbers and revenues.
• More importantly, as the countries with confirmed community transmission has moved from Asia to East Asia, Europe and Middle East, this puts passenger markets outside transmission centers at risk as well. Our initial impact assessment was focused on the impact of COVID-19 on Asia Pacific airline traffic and for the other regions only direct impact of China was assessed under the potential scenario (Our COVID-19 initial impact assessment contains further details). Although the evolution of the outbreak in the other regions is at early stage, from early bookings data we see a sharp fall in demand in Europe and the Middle East.
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