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Analysis Reports
We employ a global team of highly-experienced analysts who deliver a wealth of commentary about the aviation and travel industry. Our analysts don’t just report the news, they look at the big picture to help you understand how the latest news, issues and trends will affect your business. CAPA’s commitment to independence and integrity means every report is filled with accurate data and actionable insights to help you stay ahead of the game.
Air New Zealand: Further delivery delays and aircraft groundings exacerbate planning challenges
Air New Zealand is confronting a range of fleet headaches due to factors outside its control, which is complicating the carrier's planning and spurring short-term and long-term adjustments.
The airline's Boeing 787 delivery timetable has been hit by more delays, which will push back its transition to an all-787 widebody fleet. It is also prompting Air New Zealand to consider keeping its 777-300ERs longer than planned.
In the shorter term, the carrier is still coping with the grounding of several aircraft due to engine availability issues. And a cabin retrofit programme for its existing 787 fleet has been affected by minor delays due to supply chain problems.
The Caribbean region does not have many airport hubs on the same scale as the huge ones in North America, Europe and Asia Pacific.
The region being made up of disparate island groupings, with no obvious central point, a series of smaller hubs, pioneered by the likes of the now defunct British West Indies Airways (which was based in Port of Spain, Trinidad), and the dead but resurrected (just this month) LIAT, were more appropriate.
The main exception is the Copa Airlines hub at Panama, which has a broader scope and effectively connects many cities from southern Canada right down to northern Argentina.
Caribbean Airlines emerged out of BWIA's demise to become the largest Caribbean regional airline, and its CCO perceives an opportunity for Port of Spain's Piarco Airport to become the major hub for that region again.
While its ultimate scope to do so may be tempered by Copa's presence 2,000km or so to the east, the airport benefits from commercial activity in the locality that is greater than on other islands. Further, there is the development of an airport city, in addition to the stock position of tourism-related business, and all the trade that goes with that, including oil-related business.
As such, and while it will never be a 'Caribbean Singapore', it offers numerous advantages to incumbent and future airlines that rivals do not.
Bangkok and Kota Kinabalu airports – new Southeast Asian hubs? A Capital dream for Tony Fernandes
Capital A Group's CEO Tony Fernandes has built a remarkable empire of airlines in Southeast Asia. He has often spoken about owning airports too, but has done little about it.
This year he has twice identified the potential for new air hubs - firstly in Bangkok, and latterly at Kota Kinabalu in Malaysia's Sabah State, in both cases comparing them to the global role filled by Dubai.
Capital A airlines would play a key part in developing each of them.
In Bangkok's case, services are split between two airports, each with an identified role, and three if you count the U-Tapao/Rayong/Pattaya airport to the south. That doesn't bear comparison with Singapore, but a collection of Capital A airlines operating there at one location would make a difference.
Kota Kinabalu is a different prospect, with seven million passengers in 2023 and less than 10 million at its peak. 'KK', as it is known, which is already a tourist haven, might be better suited to attracting new markets as a stopover point if Mr Fernandes' vision should materialise.
The key question in all this is whether or not Mr Fernandes is going to put his money where his mouth is, and commit to investing in and operating airports as he has often indicated he is interested in doing but without actually having tied the knot with any of them.
This regular CAPA - Centre for Aviation report provides a summary of major developments in the aircraft interiors sector, supported by data from the CAPA - Centre for Aviation Aircraft Interiors Database and CAPA - Centre for Aviation News.
This edition covers Jul-2024 and Aug-2024 and features:
- US low cost carriers join Premium trend;
-
Other Global LCCs going Premium;
- Latest global interior updates.
Both Ryanair and easyJet plan to launch services between Liverpool John Lennon Airport and Marrakech Menara Airport at the start of the coming winter season.
The market between Europe and Morocco is enjoying a strong recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic. Europe-Morocco seat numbers are scheduled to be 36% above 2019 levels this year, while the overall Europe market is projected to be flat on 2019 capacity.
Ryanair, the market leader, is responsible for almost two thirds of Europe-Morocco market capacity growth in 2024 versus 2019. Fourth-placed easyJet is also growing seat share, whereas number two Royal Air Maroc and third-ranked Air Arabia Maroc are losing share.
Europe-Morocco benefits from year-round demand and open skies agreements. Ryanair and easyJet's choice of a small European airport not previously connected to Morocco for a new route signals their confidence in further growth potential.
Japan's major airlines are planning significant additions in the upcoming northern winter schedule season, following a strong summer of inbound tourist demand.
While outbound leisure travel from Japan still lags, this has been offset by surging inbound travel. This continues a trend that has been evident for several months, as this analysis also showed.
There are enough promising signs to prompt both All Nippon Airways (ANA) and Japan Airlines (JAL) to add more flights in the winter season, which also coincides with the second half of their fiscal year.
This Friday, 30-Aug-2024, marks the return of AirAsia to Sultan Abdul Aziz Shah Airport (Subang Airport/SZB) as part of the first phase in the transformation of Kuala Lumpur's old city airport.
It is an ironic homecoming, given that this is where AirAsia - following its rebirth in Dec-2001 as the region's first low-cost carrier - started and fought hard to stay at 22 years ago.
In 2002 AirAsia lost its appeal to overturn the Malaysia government's decision to consolidate all commercial passenger jet flights at Kuala Lumpur International Airport (KLIA).
AirAsia CEO Tan Sri Tony Fernandes said at the time, "We are disappointed", and the upholding of the policy to end all jet flights at Subang was "a big blow to AirAsia[,] but we have to carry on".
This analysis was written by our former chief analyst Brendan Sobie, who has covered the Southeast Asian LCC sector for over two decades, including nine years working at CAPA - Centre for Aviation.
In spite of slipping to a net loss in 1H2024 from positive results last year, airBaltic remains positive. The loss arose mainly from expected one-off costs, while operational and traffic developments were satisfactory.
Moreover, the state-owned Latvian flag carrier continues to plan for the future. In mid Aug-2024 it exercised options to purchase 10 more Airbus A220-300 aircraft. It anticipates more than doubling its fleet to almost 100 A220s by 2030.
airBaltic has been aiming for a 2H2024 stock market flotation. However, its 1H2024 loss and declining prices for many European airline shares since the start of this year could delay this aim.
Almost 13 years into his role, airBaltic CEO Martin Gauss understands the value of patience. He has said that market timing and finances need to be right for an IPO.
Meanwhile, airBaltic remains focused on fulfilling its aim to provide the Baltic States with the best connectivity.
VINCI wins rights to manage Phnom Penh’s new airport as French-Cambodian entente cordiale takes off
The French multi-sector construction and management company VINCI has been active in Cambodia through its airports (VINCI Airports) division for over two decades, by way of a local consortium in which it has a majority share.
Indeed, when VINCI Airports was scaled right down to very little around 2010 it was the three Cambodian airports that flew the flag for the operator until it began to build back up again to what it is today.
But recent years have been hard for VINCI in Cambodia. With complaints made about the revenues it was accruing versus the investments it was making, it lost out in the bidding for a new airport for the tourist city of Siem Reap - reportedly not even being asked to bid.
The same fate awaited it at Phnom Penh, the capital, but an intergovernmental meeting between leaders in Jan-2024 seems to have paved the way for VINCI to manage the new airport there when it opens in 2025, although it plays no part in the construction and will not hold any equity.
Even so, VINCI will be tasked with making rapid decisions to justify the USD1.5 billion outlay.
The Cambodian economy is in good shape, and tourists are returning after the COVID-19 pandemic, but four million passengers a year at a brand new airport which will be able to handle over three times that amount from Day 1, and 50 million eventually, would not be considered acceptable.
VINCI has great experience in these matters, and in Cambodia, but it will still face a challenge.
In 1H2024 Pegasus Airlines achieved ASK growth of 19%, with passenger numbers up by 22%. This led the Turkish ultra-low cost airline to revise its full-year 2024 ASK growth guidance range from 10%-12% to 12%-14%.
Pegasus reported the highest EBIT margin among European airlines in 2023 - a sign of the success of its model.
A rising challenge in 2024 is the renewed competitive threat posed by Turkish Airlines' low cost subsidiary AJet, the number two operator at Istanbul Sabiha Gökçen Airport, which is Pegasus' main hub.
In this report, CAPA - Centre for Aviation considers Pegasus Airlines' strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats.