What’s going on in the world economy? And where is aviation heading?
As the bond rate inversion curve appeared on 14-Aug-2019 in the US and the UK, Wall Street headed rapidly south. A number of other countries have already this experienced inversion for a while. And in Germany, the world's fourth largest economy, GDP growth rate went into reverse in 2Q2019.
Does this mean recession is coming, or even imminent?
Air freight numbers have been steadily falling for nearly a year. They used to be good forward indicators of where the world economy is headed, but not so much in recent years. Passenger traffic growth too has slowed markedly in the past year.
Global trade conflict is creating uncertainty and aviation is inevitably caught up in that.
So are we heading for trouble, and if so, when?
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