United Airlines' 787 Australia announcement marks the 5th anniversary of US open skies agreement

One of the world's great de facto duopoly markets came to an end five just over years ago on 27-Feb-2009 when Virgin Australia (as it is today) commenced long-haul operations and entered the Sydney-Los Angeles market, ending the Qantas-United Airlines stranglehold on the routes. A short while later Delta Air Lines also entered Los Angeles-Sydney, subsequently partnering with Virgin, while Qantas strengthened its partnership with oneworld partner American Airlines. There was over 50% growth in Australia to mainland US non-stop passengers between 2006 and 2012. Australian carriers benefitted most, but from a tourism standpoint there has been far greater growth in outbound Australian travel to the US than inbound US visitors to Australia as the US economy faltered.

The liberalisation anniversary celebrations were muted as the date exactly coincided with Qantas' half-annual results, exposing a very large loss and substantial planned staff cutbacks. A day after the anniversary, Virgin also reported a loss. While there was considerable volatility after Virgin and Delta entered the trans-Pacific market at the depth of the GFC, the market largely settled down over the past three years until United recently announced overdue changes. United will replace 747-400 services (known more for inexpensive fares than quality) with 777-200s while de-coupling Melbourne from Sydney as Australia's second largest city receives non-stop service with 787-9s. United's overall Australian capacity remains flat with less than 1% growth, but will rise to 6% growth in 2015 with an extra weekly service. In comparison, Qantas has grown capacity and market share.