Uncertainty still surrounds the extent and timing of India’s airline consolidation phase

CAPA ANALYST PERSPECTIVE - a series where CAPA - Centre for Aviation's analyst team provide their personal views on a hot topic facing aviation around the world.

Although a major round of consolidation is still likely to occur in the Indian airline industry, the process is taking longer to play out than expected a year or two ago.

Planned mergers between some airlines and the financial and legal struggles of others in the post-pandemic period appeared to presage a significant reduction in the number of airlines in the Indian market.

Around the middle of 2023, Go First had ceased operations, efforts to revive Jet Airways had stalled and Spicejet looked to be in a fragile financial condition as well.

It is still far from clear if, or when, Go First and Jet Airways will re-emerge, but their prospects have brightened somewhat in 2024. And Spicejet has raised funds and reached deals to satisfy many of its creditors.

Meanwhile, the proposed integration of the Tata Group airlines Air India and Vistara is generally on track, despite some pilot workforce issues that have arisen recently at Vistara.

So although there will be fewer airlines in the domestic market - the timing and extent of consolidation in India remains a shifting target. This is largely because of the ongoing regulatory and legal quagmire the smaller airlines are stuck in.

Adrian Schofield, Asia Pacific Chief Analyst at CAPA - Centre for Aviation and Senior Air Transport Editor for Aviation Week Network, shares his observations.