UK-US air travel may lead Europe's long haul recovery

Premium Analysis

The pace of COVID-19 vaccinations is likely to be a key determinant of progress in the return of international travel in Europe. However, countries where vaccination is advanced may remain cautious to protect this advantage, especially against the threat of new variants of the virus.

For example, the UK has the most advanced vaccination programme among countries with more than 10 million people, but its 22-Feb-2021 roadmap out of lockdown envisages international travel returning no earlier than 17-May-2021. Even then, the lifting of travel restrictions is likely to favour other countries which also have high vaccination rates.

The US has also made good vaccination progress, but the European Union and Asia are lagging. This raises questions over the pace of recovery of short haul European travel this summer.

The two key long haul markets, Europe-Asia and the North Atlantic, have collapsed during the pandemic. Europe-Asia and European Union-US may remain weak until vaccination programmes at both ends equalise.

However, good vaccination progress in both the UK and the US raises the possibility that UK-US air travel might lead Europe's long haul recovery - although it is still uncertain just what the impact of vaccinations will have on international travel.

Become a CAPA Member to access Analysis Reports

This CAPA Premium Analysis Report is 1,323 words.
Become a CAPA Member

Our Analysis Reports are only available to CAPA Members. CAPA Membership provides exclusive access to in-depth insights on the latest developments in the aviation and travel industry, developed by our team of dedicated analysts located in Europe, North America, Asia and Australia.

Each report offers a fresh perspective on the latest industry trends and is available online or via the CAPA mobile app, with customisable alerts to help you stay informed and identify new business opportunities.

CAPA Membership also provides access to our full suite of tools, including a tailored selection of more than 1,000 News Briefs every week and comprehensive data and analysis on thousands of companies around the world.