North Atlantic drives Europe’s legacy airline profits, but geopolitics could intervene
The North Atlantic has recovered from the COVID-19 pandemic faster than the total market for aviation to/from/within Europe. Capacity in the premium economy cabin has bounced back the strongest, whereas first class capacity on the North Atlantic has shrunk since 2019.
Capacity growth between Europe and North America is set to slow from 5.9% in 2024 to 2.4% in the first eight months of 2025. Premium economy is scheduled to outpace this, but is projected to slow from 8.0% in 2024 to 4.3%.
Europe's big three legacy airline groups - Lufthansa Group, IAG and Air France-KLM - currently see a positive outlook on the North Atlantic, supported by their immunised JVs and the strength of the premium cabins. Premium leisure travellers have offset the impact of a more sluggish recovery in business travel.
The North Atlantic should remain a driver of profits for the big three in 2025, but macroeconomic and geopolitical uncertainties should not be ignored.
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