Europe’s big three legacy airline groups: capex cycle remains on a plateau
Lufthansa is expected to announce a new order for widebody aircraft in the next few weeks, with aircraft deliveries anticipated for 2033.
Lufthansa Group's widebody fleet includes a number of ageing sub-fleets, whose replacement is a major motivation for a new order. IAG and Air France-KLM also have sub-fleets at fairly advanced stages in their life cycle.
This report looks at the capex cycle for the three leading European airline legacy groups, both individually and in aggregate.
IAG and Lufthansa Group plan modestly higher net capex in 2026 versus 2025, while Air France-KLM's will fall slightly.
In aggregate, the planned 2026 capex of the three would be the highest ever in absolute terms. However, expressed as a percentage of revenue, it is below the 2019 high and little changed since 2023.
This levelling out of the capex cycle coincides with a forecast plateau in the profit cycle, even before factoring in any lasting impact from the Iran war.
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