Europe-South Africa aviation: weak post-pandemic recovery, weighed by SAA's absence

In early Sep-2024 Lufthansa launched a new service from Munich to Johannesburg. This takes the airline's South Africa network to a total of four routes in the coming northern winter season, which is more than any other airline in the Europe-South Africa market.

However, British Airways is the biggest operator by seats in this market.

Its capacity is over 60% greater than the next two, KLM and Lufthansa. The withdrawal of South African Airways and three other smaller operators since the pandemic has given the remaining leading airlines a higher seat share, but the market has shrunk. Europe-South Africa capacity in 2024 is scheduled to be only 77% of its 2019 level.

The market had enjoyed a period of resurgence in the three years before COVID-19, raising hopes of a more dynamic market environment after little growth before that.

The weak recovery since the COVID-19 pandemic demonstrates that these hopes are taking time to be fulfilled. Europe-South Africa needs South African Airways to return some day.