Europe-South Africa aviation: weak post-pandemic recovery, weighed by SAA's absence
In early Sep-2024 Lufthansa launched a new service from Munich to Johannesburg. This takes the airline's South Africa network to a total of four routes in the coming northern winter season, which is more than any other airline in the Europe-South Africa market.
However, British Airways is the biggest operator by seats in this market.
Its capacity is over 60% greater than the next two, KLM and Lufthansa. The withdrawal of South African Airways and three other smaller operators since the pandemic has given the remaining leading airlines a higher seat share, but the market has shrunk. Europe-South Africa capacity in 2024 is scheduled to be only 77% of its 2019 level.
The market had enjoyed a period of resurgence in the three years before COVID-19, raising hopes of a more dynamic market environment after little growth before that.
The weak recovery since the COVID-19 pandemic demonstrates that these hopes are taking time to be fulfilled. Europe-South Africa needs South African Airways to return some day.
- Europe-South Africa seats are down by 2.8% in 2024 vs 2023, and are only 77% of 2019 seats.
- Europe to South Africa capacity peaks during the northern winter – typically a quieter period for European airlines.
- British Airways is the biggest Europe-South Africa operator by seats.
- The number of operators has fallen from 13 to 10 over the past five years, with South African Airways the most notable exit.
- Heathrow-Cape Town is the biggest route by seats. Eight out of 14 Europe-South routes are year-round monopolies, and three more are winter monopolies.
Europe-South Africa seats are down by 2.8% in 2024 vs 2023, and are only 77% of the 2019 seats
According to CAPA - Centre for Aviation analysis of data from OAG, annual seat numbers between Europe and South Africa are scheduled to fall by 2.8% in 2024 versus 2023.
This modestly reverses the recovery path after two years of strong growth back from the COVID-19 pandemic.
Annual capacity in 2024 is set to be only 77% of the 2019 level, after reaching 79% in 2022.
Seat numbers in 2019 reached a peak after growing at an annual average growth rate of 2.0% pa from 2012 to 2019. Growth had accelerated in the period 2016 to 2019, averaging 4.6% pa in this period.
This was interrupted by the COVID-19 pandemic, as with all aviation markets, but Europe-South Africa's post-pandemic recovery lags far behind global capacity recovery.
In the week of 16-Sep-2024, Europe-South Africa seats were at 77.3% of the equivalent week of 2019, compared with global capacity at 105.9%.
Europe to South Africa: annual (one way) seats, 2012 to 2024*
Europe to South Africa capacity peaks during the northern winter
The schedule between Europe and South Africa peaks during the northern hemisphere winter season.
For Europe-South Africa, the northern winter accounts for 50% of annual seats, in spite of occupying only 42% of weeks in the year (based on the 52 weeks comprising winter 2023/2024 and summer 2024).
This contrasts with the typical pattern for European airlines, which dominate the Europe-South Africa market.
For the total European market to/from all destinations, the northern hemisphere summer accounts for 66% of annual seats - disproportionate to the summer's 58% share of annual weeks.
South African destinations offer European airlines the opportunity to counterbalance the northern summer bias inherent in most of their operations.
Europe to South Africa: weekly (one way) seats, Sep-2011 to Mar-2025*
British Airways is the biggest Europe-South Africa airline operator by seats
British Airways is the biggest operator by seat numbers between Europe and South Africa. According to data from CAPA - Centre for Aviation/OAG for 2024, it is scheduled to have a seat share of 26.4% in 2024.
This is more than 10ppts more than the next two largest airlines - KLM and Lufthansa - each of which has approximately 16% of seats in this market. Fourth-ranked Turkish Airlines has 13.8%.
Air France has 9.7%, Virgin Atlantic has 8.4%, SWISS has 5.4%, and Condor has 3.6%.
Norse Atlantic, which is due to enter the market at the end of Oct-2024, is scheduled to have 0.6% of total seats in 2024 (but 2.6% of seats in the coming winter season).
Air Belgium, which entered the market in 2022, is scheduled to have a seat share of 0.1% in 2024, based on operating to Johannesburg for five weeks only in Oct-2024.
Europe to South Africa: airlines ranked by seats, 2024*
|
Airline |
Seats |
Seat share |
2024 vs 2019 |
|
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
1 |
427,372 |
26.4% |
80.6% |
|
|
2 |
261,359 |
16.1% |
97.8% |
|
|
3 |
258,056 |
15.9% |
114.5% |
|
|
4 |
223,474 |
13.8% |
115.5% |
|
|
5 |
157,350 |
9.7% |
80.1% |
|
|
6 |
136,488 |
8.4% |
74.6% |
|
|
7 |
87,710 |
5.4% |
108.3% |
|
|
8 |
57,909 |
3.6% |
197.6% |
|
|
9 |
9,126 |
0.6% |
- |
|
|
10 |
1,572 |
0.1% |
- |
|
|
Total |
1,620,416 |
100.0% |
76.7% |
The market leader British Airways is scheduled to have recovered 81% of its 2019 seat capacity this year, a slightly higher rate than the 77% level for the Europe-South Africa market overall.
However, KLM has is scheduled to reach 98%, and Lufthansa and Turkish Airlines are set to operate more than 100% of 2019 capacity in 2024.
This means that all the leading airlines in the market have a higher seat share this year than in 2019, albeit of a smaller market.
The number of operators has fallen from 13 to 10 over the past five years
The total number of airlines operating between Europe and South Africa has fallen from 13 in 2019 to 10 in 2024.
The most significant withdrawal from the market since 2019 has been South African Airways, which had 13.4% of seats in 2019.
Austrian Airlines and Iberia have also exited this market, while Alitalia and Thomas Cook Airlines have gone out of business since 2019.
Lufthansa has the most routes
Although British Airways is the leading operator by seats, Lufthansa has the most routes - four - while British Airways has only two.
Air France, Condor, KLM, Turkish Airlines and Virgin Atlantic also have two routes, with SWISS and Norse Atlantic each operating one route.
Note that this is based on capacity scheduled for the week of 13-Jan-2025, in the northern winter peak period.
Five years previously, in Jan-2020, British Airways had four routes and Lufthansa had three (as did South African Airways).
Heathrow-Cape Town is the biggest route by seats
The biggest route by seats scheduled for the week of 13-Jan-2025 is London Heathrow-Cape Town.
This route is closely followed in capacity terms by London Heathrow-Johannesburg, although the number one route is scheduled to have 28 weekly frequencies compared with 21 for the number two route.
Five years previously, London Heathrow-Cape Town was ranked third, and London Heathrow-Johannesburg was first, with almost three times the seat numbers.
London Heathrow-Cape Town has been boosted by Virgin Atlantic's entry in 2022, while British Airways' frequency increase from 14 to 21 times weekly this winter will further expand the route.
By contrast, London Heathrow-Johannesburg capacity was hit by the withdrawal of South African Airways at the onset of COVID-19, and Virgin Atlantic's post-pandemic resumption with a reduced frequency (daily versus double daily in Jan-2020).
Frankfurt-Cape Town is scheduled to be the number three route by seats in Jan-2025, up from seventh in Jan-2020, boosted by additional frequencies from both Lufthansa and Condor.
Fourth-ranked Frankfurt-Johannesburg has slipped from second place, with Condor's (winter-only) entry with two weekly frequencies not making up for the exit of South African Airways' daily service.
In addition to previously serving London Heathrow and Frankfurt from Johannesburg, South African Airways also used to operate to Munich. The latter route was unserved between Mar-2020 and Lufthansa's entry in early Sep-2024.
Eight out of 14 Europe-South routes are year-round monopolies, and three more are winter monopolies
Four of the 14 routes between Europe and South Africa are duopolies, although three of them have only one operator in the northern summer.
The remaining eight routes are year-round monopolies.
Details of the 14 routes and the relevant operators are summarised in the table below.
Europe to South Africa: routes ranked by seat numbers, scheduled for week of 13-Jan-2025
|
Rank |
Origin |
Destination |
Freq |
Seats |
Airlines (in order of seats) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
1 |
28 |
7,070 |
BA, Virgin Atlantic (VS winter only) |
||
|
2 |
21 |
6,965 |
|||
|
3 |
11 |
3,224 |
|||
|
4 |
9 |
3,000 |
|||
|
5 |
7 |
2,562 |
|||
|
6 |
10 |
2,513 |
|||
|
7 |
7 |
2,513 |
|||
|
8 |
Istanbul |
7 |
2,275 |
||
|
9 |
Istanbul |
7 |
2,100 |
||
|
10 |
3 |
2,030 |
Lufthansa (winter only) |
||
|
11 |
7 |
1,505 |
|||
|
12 |
4 |
1,104 |
Air France (winter only) |
||
|
13 |
3 |
1,014 |
Norse Atlantic, British Airways (both winter only) |
||
|
14 |
3 |
870 |
Europe-South Africa needs South African Airways to return
The underperformance of the Europe-South Africa market since the COVID-19 pandemic has been stark, but it also suggests significant untapped potential.
South African Airways' absence from this market in the post-pandemic recovery reflects its own financial challenges, and a more cautious approach to rebuilding its network.
The African airline has left a gap that has not really been filled.
Europe to South Africa: airlines by annual seats, 2012 to 2024*
South African Airways had 13.5% of Europe-South Africa seats in 2019, but this was already in decline at that time. In 2012 its seat share was 23.3%, and it was the market leader.
It seems likely that the full potential of Europe-South Africa can only start to be realised once South African Airways re-enters the market.