Europe 2017/2018 airline capacity outlook: highest winter seat growth in 10 yrs despite bankruptcies

Premium Analysis

Growth in airline seats from Europe will accelerate to 7.2% in winter 2017/2018, versus 5.7% last winter, according to CAPA analysis of OAG data. This is around 1ppt lower than without Monarch's collapse and Ryanair's reduced growth, but will still be the highest winter growth for 10 years, in spite of other recent airline bankruptcies. Airberlin's closure from 28-Oct-2017 may reduce growth fractionally, but most of its capacity will likely be reallocated, and Alitalia will continue this winter.

Wizz Air and TAP Portugal are the fastest growing European groups, while Turkish Airlines, Pegasus and Finnair are also growing at double digit rates.

Europe to Africa will grow fastest, but there will be above trend growth in every other region from Europe (including intra-Europe), apart from Europe-Middle East, where growth will be close to trend. Only to Latin America will growth be significantly slower than last winter. On intra-Europe, LCC seat growth will be almost three times non LCC growth. On the North Atlantic, above trend growth is being driven by LCCs and other non JV operators. On Europe-Asia Pacific, accelerating growth is mainly the result of Asian airline expansion.

This CAPA report presents growth and airline group seat share for each major destination region from Europe.

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