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China Southern Airlines nearing target of 55x flights to Australia/NZ, continuing international push

Analysis

Chinese aviation often features "light switch" developments: the sector can fumble along and then suddenly, as if a switch is flicked, change mindset to an ambitious target and work tirelessly to achieve it. Such was China Southern's 2010 plan to focus on Australia/New Zealand. After having not even a daily service to Sydney, the relatively unknown Guangzhou-based airline is to have 55 weekly flights in 2015. And China Southern now looks likely to achieve the goal as the airline will 53 weekly flights to the region beginning in mid-2015. Increases over the busier holiday season could tip it past the 55 mark threshold.

The next challenge will inevitably be sustainability. China Southern's Australia/New Zealand capacity fluctuates more than other major Asian airlines, with its strong outbound-China market having sharp peak and off-peak seasons. Operating a full year of 55 weekly flights may be some years away. But there is no doubt the aviation and tourism markets are forever changed, with more to come. Not so long ago China was a small blip for Australia but now there are services from the Big 3 as well as two smaller carriers, along with a proposed JV between Qantas and China Eastern as well as Air New Zealand and Air China, developments hardly on the radar a few years ago. China Southern's international push - in Australia and beyond - has pushed international capacity growth from 19% to 31% of ASKs.

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