Aviation Sustainability and the Environment, CAPA 18-Feb-2020

IAE forecasts 1Q2020 oil demand to shrink, first quarterly contraction in a decade

International Energy Agency (IAE) forecast (Feb-2020) 1Q2020 oil demand will fall by 435,000 barrels per day compared to 1Q2019, the first quarterly contraction in more than 10 years. IAE also cut its 2020 growth forecast by 365,000 barrels per day to 825,000 barrels per day, the lowest since 2011.

Lower than expected consumption in the OECD trimmed 2019 growth to 885,000 barrels per day and global oil demand has been hit by the novel coronavirus outbreak and the widespread shutdown of China's economy.

Original report: IEA Oil Market Report (OMR) Feb 2020

Global oil demand has been hit hard by the novel coronavirus (Covid-19) and the widespread shutdown of China's economy.

Demand is now expected to fall by 435 kb/d y-o-y in 1Q20, the first quarterly contraction in more than 10 years. We have cut our

2020 growth forecast by 365 kb/d to 825 kb/d, the lowest since 2011. Lower-than-expected consumption in the OECD trimmed 2019 growth to 885 kb/d.

The coronavirus outbreak has also led us to revise down the outlook for global refinery runs. Chinese crude throughputs for 1Q20 have been cut by 1.1 mb/d and are now expected to contract by 0.5 mb/d year-on-year. As a result, global runs are forecast to expand by just 0.7 mb/d in 2020. The launch of IMO's new bunker fuel regulations in January boosted simple refining margins based on sweet crudes.

Global oil supply slumped by 0.8 mb/d in January to 100.5 mb/d. A blockade in Libya slashed production and the UAE saw output fall by 0.3 mb/d. World oil output was largely unchanged on a year ago as lower supply from OPEC was offset by a 2.1 mb/d increase in non-OPEC production. The call on OPEC crude plunges to 27.2 mb/d in 1Q20, which is 1.7 mb/d below the group's January production of 28.86 mb/d.

OECD industry stocks held largely steady in December at 2 915 mb as a build in product inventories more than offset lower crude holdings. Total oil stocks stood 26.4 mb above the five-year average and covered 61 days of forward demand. Preliminary data for January show inventories building in the US and Japan while falling in Europe. Short-term floating storage of crude oil built 7.7 mb in January to 76.2 mb, most of which is Iranian oil.

Crude oil futures tumbled by $10/bbl during January in anticipation of a negative impact on demand from Covid-19. The price of grades from the Middle East, North Sea and West Africa, popular with Chinese refiners, fell while the Libyan outage was supportive for alternative crudes from Algeria and Azerbaijan. The coronavirus also weighed on product cracks, in particular jet/kerosene, although reports of Chinese run cuts provided support.

Highlights

The novel coronavirus (Covid-19) is a major global public health emergency that has brought tragedy to many lives. Its impact is still unfolding globally. There is already a major slowdown in oil consumption and the wider economy in China. While the SARS epidemic of 2003 is widely used as a reference point for analysis of Covid-19, China has changed enormously since then. Today, it is central to global supply chains and there has been an enormous increase in travel to and from the country, thus heightening the risk of the virus spreading. In 2003, China's oil demand was 5.7 mb/d and by 2019 it had more than doubled to 13.7 mb/d (14% of the global total). Moreover, last year China accounted for more than three-quarters of global oil demand growth.

The consequences of Covid-19 for global oil demand will be significant. Demand is now expected to contract by 435 kb/d in 1Q20, the first quarterly decrease in more than a decade. For 2020 as a whole, we have reduced our global growth forecast by 365 kb/d to 825 kb/d, the lowest since 2011. Growth in 2019 has been trimmed by 80 kb/d to 885 kb/d on lower-than-expected consumption in the OECD.

The impact of Covid-19 for oil prices have been sharp: Brent values fell by about $10/bbl, or 20%, to below $55/bbl. Before Covid-19 came along, the market was already nervous in anticipation of a supply overhang of 1 mb/d in the first half of 2020 due to continued expansion in the US, Brazil, Canada, and Norway. Even threats to security of supply, e.g. tension in Iraq, a 1 mb/d fall in Libyan oil production, and force majeure declared for some Nigerian cargoes, had little impact on prices. Now that the demand outlook has weakened, prices have moved significantly down.

From the point of view of the producers, before the Covid-19 crisis the market was expected to move towards balance in the second half of 2020 due to a combination of the production cuts implemented at the start of the year, stronger demand and a tailing off of non-OPEC supply growth. Now, the risk posed by the Covid-19 crisis has prompted the OPEC+ countries to consider an additional cut to oil production of 0.6 mb/d as an emergency measure on top of the 1.7 mb/d already pledged. Lower oil prices, if sustained, are also bad news for highly responsive US oil companies, but we are unlikely to see an impact on output growth until later in the year. The effect of the Covid-19 crisis on the wider economy means that it will be difficult for consumers to feel the benefit of lower oil prices.

The next edition of this Report on 9 March will be shorter and earlier than usual. It will be published on the same day as our annual five-year outlook: "Oil 2020 - Analysis and Forecast to 2025". We hope that by that time, the Covid-19 crisis will have abated.

Munich Airport achieves Level 3 Optimisation under ACA scheme

Munich Airport achieved (14-Feb-2020) ACI airport carbon accreditation (ACA) Level 3 Optimisation.

The airport has reduced CO2 emissions from 3.4kg of per passenger in 2009 to around 2.2kg in 2018 and aims to have CO2 free operations by 2050.

Original report: Auszeichnung durch "Airport Carbon Accreditation" (ACA)

Für seine fortgesetzten Anstrengungen zur Reduzierung der CO2-Emissionen ist der Flughafen München erneut ausgezeichnet worden. Im Rahmen des Programmes "Airport Carbon Accreditation" (ACA) des "Airport Council International" (ACI Europe), des Dachverbandes europäischer Flughäfen, wurde dem Münchner Flughafen bescheinigt, dass der Airport auf einer vierstufigen Skala zur Erreichung der Klimaneutralität die zweithöchste Stufe erreicht hat. Dem Flughafen München wurde das ACA Zertifikat "optimisation" zuerkannt.

Flughafen senkt CO2-Emissionen um 35 Prozent pro Passagier
Auszeichnung für kontinuierliche CO2-Reduzierung
Bis spätestens 2050 soll Flughafen vollständig CO2-frei betrieben werden

Anspruchsvolle Zertifizierung

Die Stufen reichen von "mapping", "reduction", bis zu "optimisation" und schließlich "neutrality". Seit 2009 stellt sich der Flughafen München der anspruchsvollen Zertifizierung nach dem ACA Regelwerk und dokumentiert jährlich, wie sich der CO2-Fußabdruck des Flughafens schrittweise verringert hat. Die dem Flughafen direkt zurechenbaren CO2-Emissionen konnten von rund 3,4 Kilogramm CO2 pro Passagier im Jahr 2009 auf rund 2,2 Kilogramm im Jahr 2018, also um rund 35 Prozent, reduziert werden.

"Wir freuen uns über das ACA-Zertifikat, denn es zeigt, dass wir auf einem guten Weg in die Klimaneutralität sind. Durch eine Vielzahl innovativer Maßnahmen reduziert der Flughafen München konsequent seine CO2-Emissionen und sorgt damit für einen möglichst verträglichen und ressourcenschonenden Flughafenbetrieb. Wir verfolgen ein ehrgeiziges Klimaschutzprogramm und investieren dafür 150 Millionen Euro", sagte Jost Lammers, Vorsitzender der Geschäftsführung der Flughafen München GmbH.

Mit technologischen Innovationen zu weniger CO2-Emissionen

Der Flughafen München erfasst seine Emissionen nach dem international anerkannten Bilanzierungssystem des "Greenhouse Gas Protocol" (GHG). Danach möchte der Flughafen München in einer freiwilligen Selbstverpflichtung seine Emissionen schrittweise absenken. Der Airport setzt dabei vor allem auf technologische Innovationen und will zunächst auf den Erwerb von CO2-Zertifikaten verzichten. Erst wenn alle technischen Möglichkeiten ausgeschöpft sind, soll der unvermeidbare Rest der CO2-Emissionen im regionalen Umfeld des Flughafens kompensiert werden.

"Net Zero Carbon" bis 2050

Klimaschutz ist fest in der Unternehmensstrategie des Münchner Flughafens verankert. Spätestens bis zum Jahr 2030 wird der Airport das ACA Level "neutrality" erhalten. Der vollständig CO2-freie Betrieb des Airports - also das Ziel "Net Zero Carbon" - soll spätestens bis zum Jahr 2050 erreicht werden. Dazu wird der Airport seine CO2-Emissionen weiter drastisch reduzieren.

ABEAR partners with Campinas Airport to increase capacity from 37 to 40 hourly movements

ABEAR announced (14-Feb-2020) it is working with Campinas Viracopos Airport to develop technical studies to reduce CO2 emissions and increase OTP, seeking to reduce fuel consumption and increase the airport's operational capacity over the next five years.

The project scope includes maximising productivity with the least amount of investment. The short term objective is to increase the airport's capacity from 37 to 40 movements per hour.

Original report: ABEAR colabora com projeto para aumentar número de pousos e decolagens no Aeroporto de Viracopos

A Associação Brasileira das Empresas Aéreas (ABEAR) participou nessa quinta-feira (13) do evento de lançamento do AGILE VCP, no Aeroporto Internacional de Viracopos em Campinas (SP). O projeto visa desenvolver estudos técnicos para reduzir as emissões de CO2, elevar os índices de pontualidade, economizar combustível e aumentar a capacidade de pousos e decolagens do terminal nos próximos cinco anos.

O evento foi marcado pela assinatura do Termo de Referência de início dos estudos, com a participação dos integrantes do Grupo de Trabalho que reúne, além da ABEAR, a Concessionária Aeroportos Brasil Viracopos (ABV), o Departamento de Controle do Espaço Aéreo (DECEA), a Associação Internacional de Transporte Aéreo (IATA, na sigla em inglês), a Agência Nacional de Aviação Civil (ANAC), a Secretaria de Aviação Civil (SAC), a Empresa Brasileira de Infraestrutura Aeroportuária (Infraero), a associada da ABEAR, LATAM Brasil, e a Azul.

"O projeto AGILE VCP integra um dos pilares da ABEAR, que é a busca pela eficiência da cadeia produtiva. Tem por objetivo tirar o máximo proveito da infraestrutura do aeroporto, com um mínimo de investimento e alta produtividade dos recursos materiais e humanos disponíveis. Com isso, será possível promover um aumento da capacidade do aeroporto. No caso da região metropolitana de São Paulo, com o aquecimento da economia, esse será o recurso disponível a curto e médio prazo para absorver a demanda por transporte aéreo na região", afirma o consultor técnico da ABEAR, Comandante Paulo Alonso, que representou a Associação na assinatura do Termo de Referência. Estiveram presentes também na cerimônia, entre outras autoridades do setor, o diretor geral do DECEA, Tenente-Brigadeiro do Ar Jeferson Domingues de Freitas, e o chefe do Subdepartamento de Operações do DECEA, Brigadeiro do Ar Ary Rodrigues Bertolino.

O objetivo, até o fim do ano, é elevar de 37 para 40 movimentos de aeronaves por hora na pista, assim como reduzir o intervalo entre pousos e decolagens e o tempo de espera no solo e em voo. A experiência do projeto AGILE VCP poderá ser aplicada em outros aeroportos brasileiros com volume significativo de tráfego aéreo e que operam com uma única pista.

Aena to install 30ha of solar panels in Brazil

Aena president Maurici Lucena commented on Aena's concessions in Brazil, revealing plans to install 30ha of solar power panels at its airports in Brazil over the next six years (Expansion, 14-Feb-2020).

Delhi Airport certified as single use plastic free airport

Delhi Indira Gandhi International Airport, via its official Twitter account, announced (18-Feb-2020) the Confederation of Indian Industry-ITC Centre of Excellence for Sustainable Development certified Delhi as a single use plastic free airport (Economic Times/Live Mint, 17-Feb-2020). Delhi is the first single use plastic free airport in India.