Avianca airline group: bracing for changing Colombian market as Latin America starts to recover

Latin American airline group Avianca Holdings is welcoming continued improving trends in the region, which started to emerge in 2Q2016 and appear to be gaining strength in 2H2016. The company's yield decreases slowed year-on-year in 3Q2016 to the single digits, and Avianca posted a rise in yields sequentially from 2Q2016 to 3Q2016.

Avianca's optimism rests on robust load factors, particularly on long haul routes from its largest market - Colombia -to the US and Europe. Demand is also picking up in South America as travellers adjust to the effects of currency depreciation that, while improving, have become a mainstay in many markets in the region. Avianca's booking trends for Nov-2016 and Dec-2016 indicate that positive momentum is continuing into 4Q2016.

The company faces changing dynamics in its largest market Colombia in late 2016 when Copa Airlines shifts its business model in the country to a low cost operation in order to compete more effectively. Avianca seems unconcerned about Copa's change in strategy, citing its strong position in Colombia despite increased competition arising in the country's domestic market during the last few years.

Colombia's market should undergo further changes in 2017 when LATAM Airlines Group begins instituting a new pricing model in its domestic markets, including in Colombia.