Australia’s renewed domestic market competition hots up

Market share forecasts from the major players in the Australian domestic sector signal an escalating battle for rapidly recovering passenger demand. This will, of course, be good news for travellers, but a competitive bloodbath would not be helpful for airline financial performance.

The post-pandemic market share predictions of Qantas and Virgin Australia add up to more than 100%, and that is even before factoring in the growth ambitions of Regional Express (Rex) and the imminent entry of the start-up LCC Bonza. Obviously not everyone will be right in their assumptions.

Airlines in competitive domestic battlegrounds often demur when asked about market share, preferring to focus on profitability. However, airlines generally have an idea - public or private - about what their optimum share should be.

In Australia, there are contrasting opinions about which airlines will be competing for which segment of the domestic market.

However, it is still plain that some airlines may end up with a significantly smaller footprint than they have visualised.