Asia Pacific airlines' "ambitious fleet plans" threaten excess capacity, lower load factors in 2012

Asia Pacific airlines are coming off a difficult 2011, thanks to stubbornly high fuel prices and weaker yields in a challenging global economic environment. But not all the problems are necessarily external. Overcapacity is looming as a threat in 2012 as the region's full service airlines gear up for a period of growth and change in the coming decade. Balancing capacity and demand in choppy and unpredictable economic times is not easy and the coming year looks like being one in which at least temporary oversupply is very likely.

Record aircraft delivery levels are being maintained even as traffic growth slows. The upshot of that combination of factors is lower load factors and reduced yields, made more notable as the finance sector - a key user of premium services - is undergoing sometimes savage staff cutbacks. That in turn implies damage to airlines' bottom lines in what is now an intensely competitive market, with low cost airlines, Gulf carriers and Chinese airlines each vying for larger shares of markets which were historically the territory of the region's flag carriers.