Already accustomed to rapid policy shifts, US airlines face new unknowns after Iran strikes

Before the military strikes against Iran by the US and Israel, US airlines appeared to be acclimatised to a certain level of policy uncertainty, stemming from the administration of President Trump.

And while the latest conflict in the Middle East should have little effect on US airlines from a network perspective, its duration could create even greater uncertainty around the country's economic prospects, and possibly disrupt previous assumptions made regarding demand in 2026.

The coming weeks could offer clues about how disruption in the Middle East could influence demand as airlines begin to reinforce, or issue, different guidance for their respective first quarter performances, which (in some cases) were moulded by a K shaped economy.